Jays 4, Indians 6

Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 06:15 AM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Haven't we seen this movie before?

I hope you'll forgive me for a rather short Game Report - I kind of shot my bolt earlier this week, for no apparent reason. And while I celebrate, along with all Blue Jays fans, Alex Rios finally - finally! - breaking his long home run famine, there is really only one issue we must address. One issue that has to be of overwhelming concern to everyone connected in any way to the Toronto ball club.

Seriously, right now, there are few things more urgent than finding out what's wrong with Ted Lilly and getting it fixed.

How bad is it? Here is a tale of two pitchers:

	     G  GS  CG  IPT   W  L  H  HR   R  ER  SO  BB  ERA
Pitcher A    7   7   0  27.2  1  4  43  7  32  32  23  16  10.41
Pitcher B    7   7   0  34.1  2  4  57  7  44  44  20  22  11.53
Pitcher A is Ted Lilly after failing again to get through two innings. Lilly faced 13 batters last night and was able to retire only five of them. He surrendered a bases loaded double, two singles, and five walks.

Despite making seven starts, Lilly hasn't even been able to get through enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. This is just as well, perhaps: there are 115 pitchers who do qualify, and Lilly ranks well behind each and every one of them. The difference between Ted Lilly and the 115th man on the list, Oliver Perez of the Pirates is greater than the difference between Dave Bush and Mark Prior, Dave Bush and Jake Peavy.

Let's repeat that point, so that it's absolutely clear. Dave Bush's 2005 performance, which has so many of us disappointed, is nevertheless closer to Mark Prior's performance or Jake Peavy's performance.... than Ted Lilly has been to the man who ranks dead bloody last in the major leagues in ERA. How scary is that?

How scary is this - Ted Lilly has been out-pitched this season by Scott Erickson. Who has allowed 9 HR and struck out just 5 hitters in more than 30 IP, and is forced to sleep on his stomach because of the huge fork protruding from his back...

In the Instant Replay, King Ryan noted that: "Even Hentgen last year didn't look this bad. Or maybe he did. Still, if you're being compared to 2004 Hentgen, that's not good."

No it's not good. It's very bad indeed, because Hentgen last year was significantly better than this. And Hentgen was bad enough that he actually retired in mid-season rather than continue...

Yes, Lilly missed spring training, as Keith Talent pointed out. But Lilly missed it last year as well, and it didn't have anywhere near this kind of impact. This is going beyond a poor start to the season. Way, way beyond. Barry Zito and Tom Glavine are off to poor starts. But both Zito and Glavine have still shown considerable evidence, Glavine as recently as last night, that they can still be effective. No. Something is very wrong. Major league pitchers simply do not normally pitch this poorly for this long. For one thing, their managers don't let them. They stop giving them the ball.

Ted Lilly turned 29 this year, and Dave Stieb turned 29 in 1986. The first part of 1986 was the absolute nadir of Stieb's career, and even more unexpected - a veteran, an all-star pitching like he didn't even belong in the major leagues. It would take Stieb pretty well two full seasons to rebuild himself into a quality starting pitcher.

But that's not the movie we've seen before. This is a far worse horror show. Stieb was never this lost. At this point in 1986, after his first seven starts, Stieb was 0-4, 6.02. He was actually improving his ERA as his year went on - Stieb was in double figures after his first two starts, and was grimly working his way down through the 7s and the 6s. Losing games all the while, but not like this...

So this brings us to Pitcher B. Roy Halladay, 2000 edition. You remember that movie, don't you?

The line for Pitcher B belonged to Halladay on May 5, 2000 after his 7th start. Like Lilly, he had begun his season with a strong effort. But from that point his ERA went from 3.86 to 6.94 to 8.04 to 9.00 to 10.80 to 10.57 and finally to 11.53.

At which point, Jim Fregosi took him out of the rotation. Halladay would never get his ERA into single digits during the 2000 season, and he opened 2001 at A ball, rebuilding both his psyche and his mechanics.

But is this an option here? I doubt it very much. Ted Lilly is not a 22 year old who has never spent a season in the rotation. He turned 29 in January and he has started more than 100 games in the major leagues. But he is just as messed up right now as Halladay was then. It took a year and a half to put Doc back together.

So at this point, you're actually hoping there's an injury involved. It would at least provide an explanation. Because if the problem isn't in his arm, it's in his head.

Lilly has always had a reputation of being a difficult pitcher to work with, for catchers and pitching coaches alike. Last season, however, he seemed to click with Gregg Zaun. I did some research, here on the Box, of how various Jays pitchers performed with the various catchers. And to my surprise, one of the most productive relationship was that between Lilly and Zaun. As I recall, Zaun's impact on Lilly was probably more significant than any catcher's impact on any pitcher.

But not this year. Greg Myers caught Lilly's first, and best, start this year, the one against Boston and was behind the plate again for his second, so-so effort against Texas. Lilly was 0-1, 3.60 in 10 IP with Myers catching. Zaun worked with Lilly in his next four starts, before Zaun's injury. Only his win against Tampa offered any encouraging signs whatsoever. Lilly went 1-2, 12.94 in 16 IP with Zaun behind the plate. And, for what it's worth, Lilly is 0-1, 27.00 in 1.2 IP with Huckaby catching.

That really doesn't look like the problem. Lilly worked very well with Zaun last year, and everybody has always worked well with Huckaby.

There's a serious, serious problem here, and it has to get fixed now. I'm not sure if I'd even give him another start to see what happens. Scott Downs is better than this, and I'm inclined to give him the ball.

Ron said "I have a feeling the former all-star wouldn't be pleased to even entertain the offer of pitching in the minors." I agree entirely, and Lilly can't be optioned to the minors at the team's discretion. That means it's either the bullpen or the disabled list.

And meanwhile, the Magpie's record falls to 1-5. It looks like if I want to write about Blue Jay victories, I have to poach someone else's Report. Leading the Roster in losses, thank you very much. Man, I don't want to take these numbers to arbitration. I now live from day to day, hoping not to find myself designated for assignment...

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