Stomping the Devil Rays 12-3 is a little like enjoying a super-nice sunny afternoon in early July. It feels great, it's just what you want -- but it's also not an iota less than what you had fully expected. This is why no team really feels great after beating Tampa -- this franchise is so bad that its opponents' expectations of victory are exceedingly high. We'll return to the topic of high expectations later on in this report.
I envy most of my fellow Rosterites, and not just because they're Renaissance men with chiseled features and scads of Intel stock. I envy them because they can produce extremely cool posts like this one from Jonny German yesterday. The Game Thread turned into an interesting discussion of Russ Adams, who himself is turning into one of the more interesting players in the Blue Jays lineup this season.
In some ways, Adams has come as advertised, and in other ways, he hasn't. His range at shortstop is excellent, even on the Rogers Centre's funny new surface, and he goes to his left extremely well. His arm is not the strongest, but he has worked hard on his positioning and mechanics, such that Brian Butterfield recently testified that he thinks Adams' arm is effectively stronger now than it was on Opening Day.
He's also making the expected number of rookie errors -- trying to force too many plays, firing acrobatically into the dirt or off-line in futile efforts to nail a baserunner. Only with time and experience will he learn which of those grounders to eat and which ones he should try anyway. Eric Hinske has been, on balance, a better than average receiver at first, so that has helped. Overall, Adams has been average defensively at short -- in fact, he's square in the middle of the pack among AL shortstops in defensive win shares. That's at least as good as the Jays could have hoped for coming into this season.
On offence, his on-base performance has been generally disappointing. His batting average has yet to crack .250 all season, quite unusual for a player who has rarely been south of .280 in his pro career. He's also walking fewer than once every ten at-bats, another surprise. At the same time, he's shown unexpected power when he pulls the ball: he now has 10 homers in his first 265 major-league at-bats, after hitting just 12 homers in more than 1,200 minor-league ABs.
Adams never slugged more than .408 for any full-season farm team, but his SLG stands at .432 this season and .458 for his young career. What's more, as has been discussed recently, his batting average on balls in play is remarkably low and his line-drive percentage is among the highest on the team, which suggests that he's been driving the ball pretty well, but his liners haven't been finding the gaps.
All of which is to say, Russ Adams has actually had a pretty good rookie season so far. His final numbers will be better than what you've seen so far; indeed, I'll predict right now that his second-half batting average will be in the .270-.280 range, with little corresponding drop in power. Even at that, his performance will probably be overshadowed by the more glamorous impact of Aaron Hill (like Adams, an intelligent and instinctive ballplayer in his own right). That's okay -- Adams will probably always be somewhat underrated, but he's still going to be a key member of this club going forward. There's a reason JP Ricciardi has placed him on the untradeable list. "Good little player," John Gibbons said of Adams after yesterday's 5-RBI game. "And he's only going to get better." That's right.
How about Josh Towers, then? It was pretty fun being in the Game Chat yesterday, as more than a dozen fans talked about Russ Adams, Rob Babcock, the weather, anything except the growing string of zeroes under Tampa Bay's "hits" column. Had Towers no-hit the Rays -- and if you're ever going to throw a no-no, this is the club to do it against -- he would have become only the second Blue Jay to accomplish the feat (Dave Stieb, of course, being the first).
It's been said before that Towers delivers feasts or famines, and that trend continued today. What needs to be remembered, however, is that despite his 5-7, 4.47 record, Towers has been lights-out for more than half his starts this season:
Starts allowing 0, 1 or 2 ER: 8
Starts allowing 3 or 4 ER: 3
Starts allowing 5 or more ER: 4
Josh Towers is having a very fine season for himself, and I think he's about to go on another run of strong pitching performances.
I don't have any quick hits today, unfortunately -- when the game's not televised, I don't get to notice nearly as many things as when RSN or TSN broadcasts the match. So instead of the usual bullet-point frenzy, we're going to dive right in to the main course.
The Cornerstones
Less than two and a half years ago, on St. Patrick’s Day, 2003, the Toronto Blue Jays held a news conference to announce that two of their young players — 24-year-old third baseman Eric Hinske and 23-year-old centerfielder Vernon Wells — had signed five-year contracts for about $14.8 million each. Here are the numbers those two players had posted in 2002 — their first full seasons — to help convince the team the deals were worthwhile:
Hinske 2002
151 G, 566 AB, .279/.365/.481, 38 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 77 BB, 138 K
Wells 2002
159 G, 608 AB, .275/.305/.457, 34 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 100 RBI, 27 BB, 85 K
You would have been hard-pressed at the time to find anyone who thought these were bad decisions by the Blue Jays’ front office. There were concerns about Hinske’s defence, which had been shaky much of the year, and there were concerns about Wells’ plate discipline, which had never been great. Aside from one superlative season by Wells (spanning three different farm teams in 1999), neither player had posted a sterling minor-league record, either.
But by and large, there was much rejoicing: local fans and local media, in a rare show of unity, approved of the deals, as much for what they symbolized during a transitional time for the franchise as for the talent they locked up. The word “cornerstone” was thrown around a lot.
Today, not only is the bloom off the rose, but the rose is missing in action altogether. Here at Batter’s Box, where some of the most fair-minded Blue Jays fans can be found, even some Roster members are seriously considering what could be obtained by trading Vernon Wells or whether Eric Hinske must simply be designated for assignment. The new flavour of the month is Aaron Hill, a rookie with one-fifth the big-league plate appearances of Wells or Hinske, or perhaps (for his glove, at least) Orlando Hudson. It now seems likely that one of Hinske or Wells, who each had been widely expected to be key contributors to the next serious Blue Jay contender, will not be with the team this time next year.
How did it come to this? How did worst-case scenarios for both players befall the team? And is it really as bad as all this? This seems like the right time to provide some history and context to these two players, in order to make sense of what the Jays will (and ought to) do next with them.
Let’s start by looking at the comments posted at Batter’s Box back when those five-year deals were signed. In those low-payroll days, where every penny of salary was counted and the memory of Alex Gonzalez’s contract was never far away, the primary concern for many posters was whether the Jays would benefit by buying out Wells’ and Hinske’s arbitration years (along with the discussion of the deals’ symbolic value):
“If Wells and Hinske both play at the levels they did last year, I don’t think the Jays are saving any money. If either (or both) really break out, there could be a fair amount of savings. — Pistol
“The best thing about the signings, to me, is that it is a clear indication that the Jays are committed to not ending up like the Expos, on a never-ending ‘youth movement’ treadmill.” — Craig B
There was also a degree of caution in the remarks many posters made regarding the young third baseman and centerfielder, a caution that not many current fans still retain:
“Let’s hope Vernon Wells doesn’t go [Terrence Long] on the Jays. While you can’t blame the A’s for signing Long to a long-term deal — because most of his teammates were getting similar contracts — it’s going to kill them if he keeps playing like he does.” — Gitz
“I think Hinske is pretty close to his ceiling already. Other than turning some of his 38 doubles into home runs and scoring and driving in more runs when he’s moved to a ‘power’ slot in the lineup, I don’t think Hinske will ever be a vastly different hitter from what we saw last year.
“Wells, though, is someone who could go any number of ways, and it’s a lot harder for me to decide what he’s going to do. Today, he’s Joe Carter with very nice centerfield defence. For the future, Torii Hunter seems to be the most appropriate comparison to me, but he’s about two years ahead of Hunter’s development schedule offensively.” — Robert Dudek
“It’s likely [that Hinske’s] line drives that are doubles today will start to creep over the fence a little more often. He probably won’t ever hit 40 HR, but I see him being consistently in the 30s. Other than that, I agree ... Hinske isn’t going to improve much beyond the great things he’s already doing today.” — Spicol
“I certainly hope that both will become major stars. Just based on probabilities, however, I’d say that it’s likelier that just one will become a star, and perhaps neither. Does either have a higher ceiling now than Shannon Stewart appeared to have after his age-24 rookie season? …
“[T]here is a ‘youth movement’ flavour to it, albeit a smart one, a la Cleveland Indians circa 1994 and Oakland A’s circa now. The Jays are paying relatively little — compared to equally skilled veterans — for what figures to be the best years of these players’ careers. Unless the Blue Jay business model changes dramatically in the next 5 years, however, I wouldn’t expect either to be re-signed once becoming FA’s (and perhaps, nor should they).” — Chuck van Den Corput
Only one poster exhibited unbridled enthusiasm about the signings:
“There’s no doubt in my mind the team will save money with these deals — both Hinske and Wells are going to put up better numbers at more important defensive positions over the next few years than [Shannon] Stewart did in his first half-dozen seasons. Hinske needs only to increase his average and continue to improve his defence in order to reach Scott Rolen territory, while Wells is already a 25-HR Gold-Glove-calibre centerfielder with some upside still to explore. …
“Hinske is not Homer Bush and Wells is not Raul Mondesi: the club will regret neither of these deals. A better comparison is Cleveland in the early ‘90s, and two guys named Kenny Lofton and Jim Thome.” — Take a wild guess which Rosterite wrote that.
But that upbeat poster wasn’t alone. Consider what Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus had to say:
“[T]he Jays should make out very well here. Most players who had a year like Hinske’s 2002 at age 24, or Wells’ at age 23, would go on to be, at worst, solid major-league players for the next few years. In many cases, a five-year, $15-million contract (adjusted for the pay scale of the time) would have ended up being an amazing bargain. …
“I think the Blue Jays have done well to commit to these players. There are reasons to do so that go beyond the specific merit. The Jays can now sell Wells and Hinske to their fans as the cornerstones of what should be an exciting team, a contender. They get cost certainty, as well as roster certainty, with two of their best players through 2007, enabling them to budget around the pair.
“If the two develop as hoped, they’ll provide the kind of low-cost core that enables J.P. Ricciardi to sign the right free agents in 2004 and beyond, when the Jays should be overtaking the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East superiority. Overall, the signings are a calculated risk with minimal downside and significant upside.”
So here’s what happened in 2003:
Hinske 2003
124 G, 449 AB, .243/.329/.437, 45 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 59 BB, 104 K
Wells 2003
161 G, 678 AB, .317/.359/.550, 49 2B, 5 3B, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 42 BB, 80 K
Eric Hinske broke the hamate bone at the base of his right hand early in the season, but failed to tell anyone and tried to play through the pain. When he finally admitted the injury, he received a fair amount of criticism for allowing his desire to play (or a misplaced tough-guy machismo) to trump the good of his team. Still, there were positive signs in the debacle of his season: even with the injury, Hinske managed to belt out 45 doubles, and most observers took that as a sign that the slugging ability was still there; it had simply been muted by the injury. A strong bounce-back performance was expected in 2004.
Vernon Wells, on the other hand, exploded. His batting average soared, the home runs flew out of the park, and he threatened the franchise record for doubles in a season. Even his walk rate rose substantially, and although he didn’t take home a Gold Glove for his defence, his name was being discussed in that context. Altogether, he showed every sign of becoming an elite centrerfielder, and more great things were expected for 2004.
Hinske 2004
155 G, 570 AB, .246/.312/.375, 23 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 54 BB, 109 K
Wells 2004
134 G, 536 AB, .272/.337/.472, 34 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 67 RBI, 51 BB, 83 K
You remember The Year From Hell, don’t you? The Blue Jays fell to last place in their division. Numerous players missed significant periods of time with injuries, most notably Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado. For weeks on end, Dave Berg, Howie Clark and Frank Menechino were regular fixtures in the lineup.
But health wasn’t an issue for Eric Hinske: physically recovered from his broken bone, he nonetheless posted a broken season, finishing virtually dead-last in all offensive categories for major-league corner infielders. Observers suggested his approach at the plate was completely off, leaving him unable to adjust to pitchers’ new book on him. By season’s end, Hinske was so out of favour that the Jays signed Corey Koskie to play third base and, crossing their fingers, moved Hinske over to first base to replace the departing Delgado.
Wells had injury problem as well, but in 27 fewer games than in 2002, still managed to post almost exactly the same raw numbers as he did in his first full season. Opinion was divided on what, if anything, Wells’ 2004 performance meant. On the half-empty side, some people wondered whether 2003 was a premature career year. But on the half-full side, more people talked about the effects of the injury and, more importantly, the debilitating impact of the shredded lineup on everyone’s offence. At the end of the season, most fans wrote off pretty much everything that happened in 2004 and hoped that the new free-agent additions and the return of healthy personnel would mean Hinske and Wells would finally be able to establish themselves in 2005.
Hinske 2005 (inc)
74 G, .241/.326/.388, 13 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 30 BB, 70 K
Wells 2005 (inc)
75 G, .267/.317/.476, 13 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 38 RBI, 23 BB, 44 K
Halfway through 2005, this season has looked a whole lot like 2004 for both of these players. Look a little more closely, however, and you can see some variables at work in their month-by-month production.
Hinske 2005 OPS by month
April: 848
May: 801
June: 474
Wells 2005 OPS by month
April: 620
May: 836
June: 879
This year, both Wells and Hinske have been slightly better-than-average players for two months, and simply horrible players for one month. Hinske in particular is currently in free fall: he’s hitting .132/.264/.211 in June, a performance so bad that you simply have to believe that he’ll snap out of this funk; the question is whether he’ll return to an 800-850 OPS level, and if so, to which end of that range.
Wells has traditionally started slowly in April and gotten hot in May and June, and he has started 2005 by following that pattern. But while he has improved the last two months, his production has not climbed back to its past levels (although he is on a hot streak at this very moment). Wells is the only "slugger" left on the team these days, and so it’s reasonable to think he’s simply trying to do too much for this low-powered team and has been suffering for it. One can’t really draw any conclusions until a full season is in the books
But for both these players, it’s not just about the numbers anymore. For the first time since arriving in Toronto, Wells is feeling the heat. It started with a well-known play last week against the Orioles, when Wells leisurely strolled to retrieve a routine single by Miguel Tejada that the Baltimore shortstop accordingly turned into a hustle double. It intensified after some baserunning gaffes in the next few games, errors that could be (and have been) interpreted charitably as brain cramps and could be (and have been) interpreted less charitably as a lack of focus.
Wells missed a weekend series to be with his wife at the birth of their child, and anyone would find it difficult to switch back and forth between two equally (but very different) high-pressure situation as these. Still, Wells is discovering what Carlos Delgado learned: when you’re the biggest star on your team and you’re perceived as underperforming, everything about your personality and demeanour is going to undergo microscopic scrutiny.
Fans can only judge by what they see, and since they see only a small percentage of a player’s complete nature (and from a great distance), they have very little with which to draw conclusions. The temptation, however, is to draw conclusions anyway, and while that’s unfair for the player, it’s also the way life goes. Some players can handle that, and some can’t. We’re going to find out this year which type of player Wells is.
In his demeanour, Wells reminds me somewhat of Tim Wallach, whom I followed as a young Expos fan in the mid-1980s. Wells is certainly more animated than Wallach, who was so unexpressive as to make John Olerud seem wacky. Wallach never seemed to exert himself, get upset, or show the emotions that I, as a fan of that maddening club, felt so very strongly. So I came to regard him as a symbol of those underachieving Expos teams, and I treated him accordingly.
It was only years later, when reviewing his record in hindsight, that I realized what an extraordinary player Wallach was, probably the third-best third baseman of the time behind Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and George Brett. And I came to understand that he wouldn’t have been any better if he had showed a lot of emotion on the field. What he would have been, in fact, was Gary Carter, a player so publicly expressive that his teammates nicknamed him “Lights” (as in “Lights-Camera-Action”). It wasn’t a compliment.
Most fans, when pressed, would prefer a productive but quiet player over a mediocre but “rah-rah” one. Wells has, in the past, unquestionably been productive, and in disposition, he is very much the same Vernon Wells who slugged .550 in 2003. He has never been a bat-slamming Hinske or a pointing-to-the-sky Hudson; he doesn’t have Delgado’s charming grin or Reed Johnson’s sparkplug buzz. But up until he made a bad mistake against the Orioles that compromised his reputation as a solid player and positive clubhouse presence (remember that he took on union rep duties as a raw rookie), you would not find anyone questioning his character or his work ethic. But Wells has paid for that mistake, and he will continue to pay for a while longer until his bat fully recovers its potency.
As for Hinske, a new batting stance and some early success in 2005 staved off many fans’ concerns, and led them to believe that the move to first base had cleared Hinske’s mind of defensive worries and allowed him to concentrate on his hitting. But after an encouraging April (both for him and for the team), Hinske’s power dried up again and he’s now mired in a breathtakingly bad slump. The Jays have changed hitting coaches, batting order positions, and field positions for Hinske. None of it has restored him to the promise of his rookie year.
Was that promise justified? Consider this about Hinske: in his third month as a pro, he posted an 1117 OPS, a brilliant June 2002 that largely propelled him to Rookie of the Year Honours. As well, in April of that same year, he produced an 869 OPS. But those remain the two best OPS months of his entire career. In the other 18 months of his career, he has posted an 800+ OPS only six times, and 850+ only once; his “average” monthly OPS is 744 and his median total is 782-795.
In his second-last minor-league season, at Double-A, Hinske batted .282/.365/.521 for an OPS of 886. In his final minor-league season, at Triple-A, he batted .285/.380/.511 for an OPS of 891. Take into account the usual statistical erosion that accompanies a promotion to the majors, and his 750-800 range OPS totals in the big leagues -- replacement level or thereabouts -- aren't really a huge shock. All of which is to say, there is now enough evidence to support the conclusion that an approximate .270/.340/.435 level of production is all that one should expect from Eric Hinske.
Is that enough for a first baseman on a hopes-to-be-contending team? Peter Gammons points out that the average AL first-sacker is batting .264 and slugging .440 this season, after posting .266 and .450 numbers last year. The Jays have an average first baseman making pretty average first baseman’s money. There are worse things.
In the end, it’s all about expectations. Numerous big-league players have been coasting for years with mediocre performance because they were never expected to even hold down a regular job in The Show. Other players arrived with such fanfare that anything short of annual MVP numbers is considered a disappointment. These days, it seems, your best bet is to fly under the radar as much as you can, whether you're a ballplayer or not; it’s never been a better time to be on a “Most Underrated” list.
Eric Hinske and Vernon Wells were trumpeted as the cornerstones of the new Toronto Blue Jays in March 2003, because that’s what a new ownership and a new GM desperately needed them to be. Is it their fault that they turned out not to be cornerstones at all, but merely supporting pillars best suited for a complementary but not central role in the design? No. The Jays had a cornerstone player, and he’s now in Florida. They have a cornerstone pitcher, but he appears only once every five days. They might have a cornerstone in young Mr. Hill — but remember Hinske’s 1117 OPS in June 2002, and remember that high expectations will get the better of you almost every time.
Hinske and Wells are who they are: an intense, hard-working corner infielder with limited offensive upside, and a laconic yet professional above-average centerfielder who will never wear his heart on his sleeve. Let them be who they are, enjoy the good and ride out the bad. Everyone will be a lot happier.
Media Roundup
Here are the game reports (the Star's site isn't working this morning).
A Brandon League update (Sun) -- Judging from this brief Mike Ulmer profile, League has not developed Adam Peterson syndrome even after very rocky experiences in both the majors and the International League this year. He struggled badly on his demotion to the Skychiefs rotation, but has come around more while used in a relief role.
The jury is still out on the proper role for League at the moment, but Marty Pevey thinks he should start now, even if he relieves down the road, to get more chances to develop his nascent curveball and command his fastball and change. I think Pevey's right, but I'd still have League relieve most of this season to continue his adjustment to Triple-A, and give him some starts late in the year, posting him to the rotation to start 2006. There is no debate, however, that League will be a force in the majors when his time arrives.
He was nicer before he shaved off the beard (ESPN) - You've probably already seen the video of Texas pitcher Kenny Rogers shoving one cameraman out of his way and hurling epithets at another one yesterday. Think Rogers still has an outside shot at starting the All-Star Game? Me neither. Charges might eventually be laid against Rogers, who has been around long enough to know that you can abuse a teammate, a fan, a coach or even an owner and ride out the damage, but attacking a member of the media on tape means your act will be replayed worldwide every hour on the hour for quite some time.
Rogers has joined a couple of select rotations this week -- pitchers who have injured themselves striking an object in frustration (joining the likes of cart-kicking Oliver Perez, wall-punching Kevin Brown, and electric-fan-striking (I kid you not) John Tudor), as well as 40-year-old left-handers who've shoved cameramen out of their way (a rotation just formed this year, but it's anchored by Randy Johnson, so it looks pretty formidable).
Interesting matchup at Fenway (MLB) - The Jays will send Ted Lilly to the mound in the opener in Boston tomorrow, a team whose number he has had in the past. There's been a lot of talk about whether Lilly will be dealt away during the season, so it's fairly ironic that he'll be facing off against Matt Clement, the one who got away from the Blue Jays in the off-season. Clement, of course, is 9-1 and is a big reason why the Red Sox have surged into first place without the services of Curt Schilling.
With Clement posting those sterling numbers for the BoSox and Corey Koskie nursing his hand injury and poor numbers on the Jays' disabled list, it's not hard to figure out which free agent would have made the better catch for Toronto. Still, Koskie will deliver value to the Blue Jays, and if anything, his presence, coupled with the evident emergence of Aaron Hill, gives JP Ricciardi a lot of infield options this winter. JP of course wanted both these guys in Toronto uniforms, but things work out they way they work out. And whatever else, Clement's success in Boston does underline the wisdom of the Jays' pursuit of him this off-season.
Reds' Dunn is available (TSN) -- And speaking of player moves, it's time to reintroduce every Jays' fans favourite fantasy trade target. Ken Rosenthal reports that Cincinnatti is prepared to deal slugger Adam Dunn and lists several teams that would be interested and the packages they might offer. The Blue Jays aren't on Rosenthal's list (though they most certainly would have inquired), but here's what Rosenthal suggests might compose the other teams' offers:
Houston -- Jason Lane, Chris Burke, Ezequiel Astacio
Chicago Cubs -- Sergio Mitre, Todd Wellemeyer and a couple of others
Baltimore -- Daniel Cabrera, Jorge Julio, Larry Bigbie
NY Yankees -- Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano, and -- well, er, that's pretty much the Yankee farm system right now.
Frankly, I think all these offers are too low -- if I were the Reds, I'd definitely hold out for more. The suggested Astro package would be fairly attractive -- I think the Reds might take that one if Houston also threw in Brad Lidge. But this list does indicate the minimum stakes Toronto would need to ante up to get into this game. An opening offer of Dave Bush, Brandon League, and Gabe Gross would probably get Cinci's attention. Here are your questions for today: would that be a good price for Toronto to offer? And would that get the deal done?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050628214155389