Another Pinch-Hit Game Report from Batter's Box regular Elijah, who fills us in on last night's 10-7 Blue Jays' loss to Oakland. Look for another Pinch-Hit Game Report tomorrow, too. If you'd like to volunteer to be a Pinch-Hit Game Reporter, e-mail us with your available dates and any writing samples you'd like to point us towards. Take it away, Elijah!
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Gord Miller said it best on the TSN broadcast (and as bumpy as Miller was at times, it sure was nice to not have to suffer through 11 innings of Rod Black) -- "This game had a little bit of everything."
While last night's match did feature an inside-the-park home run and a player coming up lame during his home-run trot and limping around the bases, the game also included a lot of offense. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the Athletics came out on top 10-7 in an 11-inning affair.
There are two ways to look at Tuesday evening's game. The optimist would say, "Look how many times the Blue Jays fought back. They were down 3-2, 5-3, and 7-5 and tied the game each time. They fell short, but the A's are a good team that's playing very well, and games like this one happen every so often. The boys will get 'em tomorrow."
Then there's the Chicken-Little-pessimistic fan who says, "The Jays had so many chances to win. They could have won in the 9th after Scutaro's error. Miguel Batista v.2005 has transmogrified back into Miguel Batista v.2004. Orlando Hudson hurt himself running out a home run! Does this mean we have to see more John McDonald? What a terrible game. It's all over."
The fan side of me is always the pessimist and rarely the optimist. The rational and realistic side of me believes that the Blue Jays were lucky to even have been in this game. The Jays did get some timely hits, but were fortunate to tie the game in the ninth inning when Gabe Gross' slide on Vernon Wells' apparent double-play grounder caused Marco Scutaro to throw the ball away, allowing Russ Adams to score the tying run.
Most batters will tell you that they're not trying to hit the ball out of the park. They want to deliver solid line drives and, occasionally, watch those line drives sail out. The A's had a sound approach to Tuesday night's game and were an excellent example of selectivity and plate discipline. While Oakland batters only drew four walks, each and every one of their 18 hits was well-struck. This included four home runs, two Nick Swisher doubles and a shot by Eric Chavez in the 11th that would have been a double had there not been runners on base.
I talk to myself way too much. So here are several questions I asked myself during the game but didn't have time to look up or think about until now. And you can see I'm into esoteric minutiae. (Is "esoteric minutiae" redundant?)
1. Did the Blue Jays pitchers make that many mistakes tonight?
It's hard to quantify what a "mistake pitch" is. Perhaps STATS Inc. or Elias or Baseball Info Solutions is already developing a pitcher's MP% (Mistake Pitch Percentage) and a corresponding offense stat for BAMP (Batting Average on Mistake Pitches) or SPOMP (Slugging Percentage On Mistake Pitches).
But until they come up with that stat (I'm expecting you to put a word in, Magpie), I'll have to rely on my two flawed eyes and my notes from tonight's game (where I wrote "hanging slider" or "fastball straight down the middle" or "missed Zaun's target badly").
The A's didn't seem to miss many of the Blue Jays' mistakes. With the exception of Kotsay's 9-iron homer, most (if not all) of the balls hit by Dan Johnson, Nick Swisher, and Crosby were right over the middle. The Jays pitchers appeared to throw their fair share of fat pitches on Tuesday night.
And while we call some hitters "mistake hitters," it would appear to me that the great hitters rarely miss mistakes, while the marginal hitters foul many of those pitches straight back, pop them up or just flat out miss them. I figure that a batter may see at least one mistake pitch every game, if not more. If a guy like Manny Ramirez hits those mistakes hard 50% of the time, compared to another batter who hits them hard 25% of the time and fouls the rest off, that could add up to a lot of total bases by the end of the year.
Even the best pitchers don't always make good pitches, and the great batters rarely let the pitchers get away with it. The A's have been hitting the ball very well lately, and they didn't miss too many mistakes from the likes of Towers, Walker, Chulk and Batista tonight.
2. It does appear Shea Hillenbrand gets a lot of bloop hits. I wonder what his line drive percentage is.
According to our friends at The Hardball Times, Shea's LD% after Tuesday night's game was 23.0%, good for 12th in the AL. I guess that with all the bloopers come a lot of line drives.
But since I was already there, I decided to look at a sampling of the A's LD%s. Here they are:
Through 7/4/05 LD% PA BABIP Dan Johnson 29.9% 119 .299 Keith Ginter 26.6% 131 .189 Mark Kotsay 26.5% 353 .296 Jason Kendall 23.3% 322 .290 Bobby Crosby 21.8% 129 .337 Bobby Kielty 21.8% 247 .318 Eric Byrnes 21.1% 200 .272 Marco Scutaro 21.1% 247 .274 Scott Hatteberg 20.9% 277 .303 Mark Ellis 20.5% 193 .308 Erubiel Durazo 19.4% 167 .258 Eric Chavez 18.7% 351 .320As a team, the A's lead the AL in LD% at 21.0%, yet are ahead of only the White Sox in BABIP at .285. They're also last in batting average with runners in scoring position. What does this mean? I'm no statistician, but I believe that the A's offense is currently underrated. Despite being 3rd to last in the AL in runs scored, they're hitting the ball hard -- they're just not always getting the timely hits and showing themselves to be a bit unlucky. Tonight, they continued to hit the ball hard, but very few were actually hit directly at Blue Jays fielders.
Okay, so this had less to do with Shea Hillenbrand. But for the A's, a consistent offense, along with improved pitching from Danny Haren, Barry Zito and even Kirk Saarloos (plus the return of Rich Harden), means that the A's, while they might not catch the Angels, are probably going to be in it yet again.
(In case you're wondering, the Blue Jays are actually third in the AL in LD%. The Red Sox are 2nd.)
3. Shea Hillenbrand has now been hit 14 times this season and drawn 17 walks. I wonder if a player has ended a season with more HBP than BB.
Thanks to Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, it wasn't that hard to find out. And whaddya know! The Blue Jays' own Reed Johnson was plunked 20 times in 2003 and drew 20 walks, while Mike Kinkade had 16 HBP and 16 BB in 2003. Dan McGann's 1901 season featured 23 HBP and 16 BB.
Looking at 19th-century players, Hall-of-Famer Hughie Jennings tops the list: 51 HBP against 19 walks in 1896 (and just to prove that wasn't a fluke, Jennings had 46 HBP against 42 walks in 1897). He also had 32 HBP and 24 walks in 1895. Incidentally, Jennings is the all-time HBP leader with 287. Craig Biggio is 19 behind him, and just passed Don Baylor for the modern career HBP mark.
But knowing Shea's aversion to walks and penchant for attracting the baseball, we know he can do it!
4. Why did John Gibbons burn Frank Menechino in the bottom of the 7th, after he saw Orlando Hudson limp around the bases, leaving John McDonald as the only infielder left?
I'll be honest. At the time, I thought it was a good move, considering I'd rather burn Menechino than Alex Rios at that point. Of course, those in the chat room had a little more foresight than I did. We all gasped in horror when Johnny Mac led off the bottom of the 9th. But even so, why not lose the DH and move Adams to 2nd and insert Hill at shortstop?
While I noted earlier this season that there's no need to worry about a 10th unless you tie it in the 9th, I suppose there are limitations to that statement when it's not a do-or-die situation or a playoff game. If Gregg Zaun were removed and Ken Huckaby were in the game, one would probably agree that Gibbons should not hit for Huckaby just to tie the game and insert putative third catcher Menechino, as he would be susceptible to injury by playing out of position.
In my opinion, the only justification for not pinch-hitting for McDonald in the 9th is if John Gibbons and Brian Butterfield are absolutely convinced that neither Hill nor Adams could play second base. But if the only reason to leave McDonald in was to avoid the forfeiture of the DH, then Gibbons' decision leaves something to be desired. As it turns out, the Blue Jays tied the game in the 9th even with McDonald hitting a weak groundout to lead off the inning.
5. Is Ken Macha serious about fining his players for showing up to the ballpark too early?
According to the AP recap, there's an interesting note about Ken Macha fining his players $450 for arriving early to Wednesday evening's game. According to Macha, the team "always struggles" on the second game of an East Coast trip.
But who needs statements when you can look it up?
At BAL:
Game #1 Apr 4 L, 0-4
Game #2 Apr 6 W, 9-0
At NYY:
Game #1 May 6 W, 6-3
Game #2 May 7 L, 5-0
At TB:
Game #1 May 24 L, 5-4
Game #2 May 25 L, 14-6
At WSH:
Game #1 Jun 7 L, 2-1
Game #2 Jun 8 L, 7-2
At TOR:
Game #1 Jul 5 W, 10-7
Game #2 Jul 6 ???????
That's not exactly a large sample size, but the A's have lost each of the second games of their East Coast road trips since winning in their game after Opening Day. And I'll allow Macha to not count that game, because (1) it was the first and second games of the season, so presumably they were well-rested, and (2) they had a day off in between the first and second games.
I believe that rest is critical, and some players tend to work too hard such that they wear down over the course of the season. Perhaps this is comparable to a guy playing hurt. While his teammates and radio talk-show hosts will gush about his guts and heart, the injured player may be hurting his team and his own future by playing at less than 100%. Likewise, other players and managers always talk about a guy always being in the weight room, taking extra batting practice or throwing some more on the side. The extra work may seem like nothing taken on a daily basis, but added up over the course of the season, it could result in nagging or serious injuries or diminishing returns on the field.
So I applaud Macha for some out-of-the-box thinking, essentially forcing his players to rest (although I don't think $450 will deter an obsessive player who can't help but get to the ballpark early). Then again, why mess with something that's working? After being 17-32 and 23-36, the A's now stand at 41-41 and are rising up the standings with a bullet. If I'm Macha, I let the players do what they've been doing for the last month.
6. How come I didn't write more about the Blue Jays? Enough about the A's! I haven't read this much about the Athletics since Billy Beane wrote Moneyball!
I want to apologize to Rob Dibble and Joe Morgan for that.
The Good
Despite the loss, it was a good game for Gabe Gross, who went 2 for 3 and had a third hit taken away when Kotsay appeared to deke Russ Adams into thinking he was going to catch a shallow fly ball in centrefield, which resulted in an 8-4 force play in the 11th inning. As Mike Wilner said on the radio broadcast, since starting 0-for-13 on the season, Gross is 9 for his last 19. Gross almost made a tremendous catch off the long Chavez single in the 11th as well.
The Bad
I'm starting to worry about Vinnie Chulk. It was right around this time last year that he started to really struggle. Tonight, he served up two gopher balls in the seventh inning. In June, Chulk sported an ERA of 4.91 in 11 IP with 11 hits, 5 walks and just 6 strikeouts. It might be time for Gibbons to swap the roles of Chulk and Justin Speier, who has acquitted himself very nicely in a virtual mop-up role. After a bumpy April, Speier has been splendid in May and June (did you know that his 2005 WHIP is under 1.00?) and has earned the right to pitch in higher-leverage situations.
The Ugly
The injury to Orlando Hudson was as bizarre as any I've seen. I suppose this is why lots of players don't run hard on every popup. Kirk Gibson could've circled the bases twice in 1988 before Hudson reached the plate. On the positive side, his injury doesn't look as bad as Melvin Mora's did about two weeks ago, and Mora only missed 10 days or so. Hopefully, Hudson will be back shortly after the All-Star break.
Menechino and McDonald will likely share duties at second base until Hudson returns. It's too bad, because Hudson was heating up. He was 2 for 3 with a triple and a home run Tuesday, and since bottoming out with an 0-for-4 on June 26, he'd been 13-for-28 with a double, two triples and three home runs, scoring 11 runs and recording 9 RBI over those eight games. And of course, we'll all miss those spectacular plays that Orlando routinely makes. Get back soon, O-Dawg.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050706074532829