Shortly before the All-Star Break, numerous Rosterites assembled electronically for a week-long online Roundtable on the state of the Blue Jays franchise, short-term and long-term. The mood was upbeat and positive, right up until Kevin Mench's line drive fractured Roy Halladay's tibia. Things got a little more sombre after that.
Accordingly, we've broken down this extensive Roundtable into two sections -- pre-HLH-injury and post-HLH-injury. Read what the Roster had to say about the Jays, and add your own two cents' worth at the end.
Pre-Injury
Lucas:
Here are some interesting statistics to frame the discussion. RS+ and RA+ are just like ERA+, except they index total team runs scored and allowed.
AL EAST OFFENSE Team Runs/G RS+ AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ BAL 4.95 120 .278 .334 .469 .803 123 BOS 5.44 114 .282 .357 .451 .808 116 NYY 5.56 106 .277 .358 .445 .803 103 TAM 4.48 98 .269 .327 .409 .736 100 TOR 4.86 97 .268 .334 .416 .750 92
AL EAST PITCHING Team Runs/G RA+ Opp OPS ERA ERA+ BAL 4.70 85 .735 4.41 85 BOS 4.93 94 .772 4.84 89 NYY 5.01 102 .772 4.55 104 TAM 6.21 71 .829 5.87 70 TOR 4.33 112 .742 4.11 110
AL EAST ROTATIONS AND BULLPENS Team Rotation Rotation Rotation Bullpen Bullpen ---- IP/G ERA ERA+ ERA ERA+ BAL 5.86 4.66 80 4.00 93 BOS 6.09 4.51 96 5.64 76 NYY 6.02 4.83 98 3.95 120 TAM 5.55 5.92 70 5.65 73 TOR 5.77 4.13 110 4.00 114
AL EAST PARK FACTORS Team Park Factor - OPS Park Factor Runs BAL 0.89 0.86 BOS 0.98 0.99 NYY 1.09 1.09 TAM 0.95 0.95 TOR 1.07 1.04
Jordan:
Here are three questions to get us started.
1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?
First and foremost, the return of Doc Halladay. As someone pointed out the other day, he's actually ahead of all his markers from his Cy Young season. Whenever he starts, fans and players alike come to expect, not hope for, a win.
Secondly, the unexpected success of Miguel Batista as closer. I'll eat some serious crow on this, because when the Jays moved Batista there in the pre-season, I said it wouldn't work, and I was wrong. Batista hasn't been dominant, in the sense of recording lots of K's, but the short stints appear to have done wonders for both his pitch selection and his ability to mystify hitters with the movement on his pitches. Although I'd still deal him for the right value, his success as closer has allowed the rest of the pen to fall into place.
Thirdly, Aaron Hill. The last rookie hitter I remember coming up and making this kind of impact was Jeff Kent. His average will obviously fall back from the .350 area, but I think he's going to hang around the .290-.300 level with growing power for the foreseeable future. Corey Koskie: best injury ever.
2. What should the Jays do in the second half?
They should do whatever they reasonably can to import a serious bat into the lineup, either at DH, first base or left field. That kind of player may not be available in mid-season, or if he is, may cost too much of the minor-league treasury. But if the Jays can move comfortably above .500 and stay within striking distance of the division lead, I think the Jays will pull the trigger on a major deal. JP seems to be tired of rebuilding and is eager to start competing as soon as possible. I'd be prepared to part with three top prospects to get Adam Dunn, for instance.
They should also maximize the playing time for younger players, where feasible (for instance, I don't suggest bringing Francisco Rosario up for a little look-see if the team is really charging for the AL East title, which I don't think they'll be doing anyway). Fish or cut bait on Gabe Gross. Give the ball to Dave Bush every fifth day without fail and let him tell you if he's a reliable major-league starter or not.
Finally, they need to decide what to do with their incumbent corner infielders. I've argued elsewhere that Eric Hinske still has some value if you overlook his desperately ugly outlier-June. But that June did happen, and when Koskie comes back, and if Hillenbrand stays, then something's gotta give. I doubt JP would simply eat the $9M of Hinske's remaining contract, but I also doubt that the Blue Jays will end the season with both of the 'Ski brothers on the roster.
3. What's the state of the franchise right now?
Better than could have been envisioned when the Year From Hell drew to a close. Halladay is back to 100%, and Vernon Wells, after a very rough patch, appears to be back to form. Along with Hill, these are the three most important players for the club for the next 2 1/2 years. Russ Adams and Alex Rios are coming along more slowly than anticipated, but they're coming, and I think they'll have better numbers by season's end than is widely expected.
The most important addition to the team, of course, has been the additional $20M per season furnished by Ted Rogers. So it stands to reason that the Jays' chances of seriously competing in the next few post-seasons (aka, in the JP Ricciardi era) hinge on two factors: (1) how well that money is spent (and as Koskie has proven, there's no way to guarantee that it will be spent well), and (2) how well the pitching prospects develop -- this time next year, the Jays need at least three of Bush, Rosario, League, Gaudin, Marcum or Vermilyea to be contributing good value at the major-league level (assuming they haven't been dealt in a big trade before then).
As stated, I don't think the 2005 Jays, as currently constituted, sufficiently resemble a legitimate contender to cause or justify a buying spree. But I think they're getting closer every day, and that in 2006, this club will start making some serious noise.
Mike Green:
The team at the All-Star break is more interesting than expected, for two reasons. The Yankees especially and the Red Sox have not been playing as well as expected, with the result that the Jays can honestly feel that they are in the race. The other is the unusual state of health, particularly of the pitching staff. This has meant a shortage of openings for deserving young talent.
Many of us expected at the beginning of the season that the Jays would finish right around .500. We knew that there would be some tension between the desire to win now and play "proven veterans," and the long-term best interests of the organization. That tension is at a higher pitch than expected because of the Jays' position in the standings, and the relative absence of injury-related opportunity (with the sole exception of Koskie's injury that paved the way for Aaron Hill's successful debut).
"What should be done next?" I agree with Jordan. Gross and Bush should play. A backup catcher who can hit .220 with the occasional home run should be obtained. If a deal can be arranged for a big bat, it won't hurt. An upgrade in the bullpen would be good, although not a necessity by any means.
I said at the start of the season that I wanted to see a lineup of Rios, Wells, Gross in the outfield, Hill, Adams, Hudson and Koskie in the infield and Zaun and Quiroz catching, with Catalanotto and Menenchino sharing the DH job. A rotation of Halladay, Bush, Lilly, Chacin and Towers would be fine. All of that may happen in spite of the insistence that Hillenbrand would not be traded.
JP's in a nice trading position. He doesn't absolutely need anything (except a backup catcher), and has flexibility in what to ask for.
Magpie:
1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?"
Absolutely, the return of Roy Halladay. Nothing else matters. The team is 14-4 when he starts. Suppose he's not available and you plug in anybody else in the system. You get something like replacement level say 8-10 in those games well, then, they're sitting with a 36-46 record and we're doing a lot of grumbling.
2. What should they do in the second half?
Well, that's easy! Unload Hinske's contract and pick up a big bopper, a bona fide number-2 starter and some depth at catcher.
How they do these things... well, that I don't know. Is Burnett a bona fide number-2? Is he that much better than, say, Chacin? Because Florida surely needs a rotation starter in exchange, and I don't think they'd settle for Towers.
Dave Till:
I'm beginning to think that there might be a narrow window of opportunity right now.
The Red Sox are the class of the division, but they have some significant weaknesses, as anyone who saw the first game of the Jays-Sox series can tell you. The Yankees are floundering, and the Orioles are returning to their level. This means that a wild-card spot is well within reach, at the very least.
But this window may not stay open too long. The Yanks, Sox and O's all have huge budgets; in particular, the Yankees are likely more than willing to dump expensive contracts in the offseason and then spend more money on more expensive contracts. Once you've passed $200 million, how ludicrous is $250 million, or $300 million? What's money to George, anyway?
And I believe that the Jays don't have as much coming up from the farm system as some people think. There are no useful hitting prospects in AA or AAA (except perhaps Hattig), so there will be no new bats coming for the next couple of years. And while there is pitching coming, a lot of it is bulk pitching, and it'll be hard to find room for all of them on the 40-man roster.
For this reason, I think the Jays should be buyers in this season's stretch drive. Why not liberate a couple of bats from teams that are sinking fast, in return for a bunch of young arms and maybe Gross? (Hey, if the Yankees keep sinking, maybe they'll be selling. Look! A pig is flying!)
I also want to see Hill at shortstop more in the next month, and maybe Adams at second now and again. At some point, the Jays need to sort out the Hill/Koskie/Adams/Hudson logjam, and they don't have enough information to know whether Hill can play short, or whether Adams can play second well enough to move there. (I am assuming that Koskie won't be moved it's bad form to trade a player in the first year of his free agent contract.)
I'd also like to see Bush back up. And, if the Jays can find a bat, it might be time to punt Hinske.
What should they do in the second half? I'd recommend finding somebody willing to trade a big bat for Gross and a fling of pitching prospects. If the Jays don't trade some of their pitching prospects, they'll just be donating them to other teams courtesy of the Rule 5 draft. And I still don't think Gross is going to make it (though I'd prefer him to Hinske right now).
As for the state of the franchise? Everything's better than it was three years ago: the team is better, the in-game atmosphere is better, and the outlook is better. J.P. and his brain trust have made some good decisions, and Ted Rogers has invested in the team and the ballpark. But recall that the Gillick-era Jays stalled at 85 to 90 wins for a number of years. J.P. will have to get some tough decisions right to put this team over the top.
Named For Hank:
Dave said: I'm beginning to think that there might be a narrow window of opportunity right now. I agree.
The whole AL East, save Tampa Bay, are one good winning streak away from the title. With Baltimore, Boston and the charred remains of New York pounding on each other, it's going to be hard for anyone to run away with the division. As long as the Jays keep winning series after series, they're in the race.
Things that needed to fall into place for the team to contend:
- Halladay had to be healthy.
- Someone had to come up from the minors and make a splash.
- Hillenbrand had to have an OBP of greater than .350.
- The bullpen had to come together.
These things are happening. And what I keep noticing is that when one of the Jays who's been cold gets hot, the team wins in convincing fashion. The most recent example has been Orlando Hudson. It would be great if they could simply stay hot, but it also illustrates just how an impact batter would push this team over the edge.
So I'm just an idiot fan, but I'm standing by my pre-season 90 wins/wild card hunt prediction, even without an additional bat.
Pistol:
1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?
Well, in addition to what everyone else has said (Halladay, Batista, Hill, lack of injuries), I think the team wouldn't be in the position they're in without Chacin and Towers. Of course, that's been offset by Bush and Lilly. The bullpen is also much improved. Collectively they've been above-average, ranking 10th in baseball in ERA.
2. What should the Jays do in the second half?
There's room for improvement in both hitting and pitching.
After Halladay, the Jays don't have that #2 starter to rely on. If the Jays were to make the playoffs, I wouldn't be all that confident with Chacin, Towers or Lilly on the mound (unless Lilly was facing the Sox...). Lilly could be that #2 guy, but there's a reason he's called Ted the Tease.
A.J. Burnett is apparently available. I'd go after him really hard. The worst case is that you trade for Burnett, you don't win, and he signs somewhere else but in that case, you'd end up with two draft picks. The best case is that you trade for him, he likes it in Toronto, likes Arnsberger, and re-signs with the Jays.
The easiest place to upgrade is probably 1B/DH, where Hinske is getting outslugged by Russ Adams. At some point, that has to be addressed and the sooner the better, especially if the team feels they're a playoff contender. Of course, Corey Koskie coming off the DL could be that move.
The Jays are almost in a position like the A's, where when the question is Are you buyers or sellers? the answer is both. Both Cat and Hudson could be moved, and it's possible that Gross and Hill could make trading those two an upgrade not even counting the players obtained in return.
Ideally, I'd like to see Hill in the middle infield and then a veteran bat like a Raul Ibanez that would be an upgrade over Hinske. So you'd have Hudson and Hinske out and Koskie and the player traded for in the lineup, which I think would be a pretty significant upgrade from the current lineup (granted, the defense would slip from Hudson's level).
Of lesser concern are the corner outfielders. Freed Johnonaotto is a good enough platoon in LF and Rios should improve, but if something big came along, it'd be worth a look.
"3. What's the state of the franchise right now?"
The team's on the upswing, pitching prospects are working their way up the ladder, and they'll have more money to work with so it seems everything is pointing up. Of course, a similar argument could have been made two years ago, and we all know how The Season From Hell went. It's a whole lot easier going from 75 to 85 wins than it is going from 85 to 95. There are reasons for optimism, but it should be cautious optimism.
Rob:
1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?
Orlando Hudson. The guy plays everywhere: second base, right field, first base, shortstop, in-game host, colour commentator, drummer outside the Rogers Centre, GO Train conductor.
Jordan said, of Batista: I'll eat some serious crow on this, because when the Jays moved Batista there in the pre-season, I said it wouldn't work, and I was wrong. No kidding. I said the same thing, noting his inability to throw strikes in spring training, and he's turned out great.
This bullpen is new to me; I'm used to Jeff Tam and Luis Andujar. Now the Jays have four relievers who don't give me heart attacks, plus Pistol Pete for Lilly's non-Boston starts. Sure, Scott Schoeneweis isn't reliable against righthanded hitters (and I don't trust him in any situation), but 5 out of 6 isn't bad.
Aaron Hill: I was going to go with Hillhouse as his nickname, but Aaron "2 for 4" Hill is more accurate. As a fan, it's terrific to see him play you just know he's going to get a double if the bases are empty or a single with a man on second. As an objective observer, he's still great. Yes, he won't hit .354 or whatever he's hitting now for the rest of the season, but Mike Wilner said it best: Aaron Hill will not play another game in the minor leagues. If he can handle shortstop, the Jays have a keeper. Whoever said he looks like a third baseman could not be more right. It's like he was born to play there.
There's not much to say about Roy Halladay we all thought he was at the top of his game in 2003. He's officially reached Spinal Tap levels now his pitching is "11". It's one better than 10, and much better than 2004.
Contention in the weak AL East? It's weird I'm not even thinking playoff contention at this point. Yeah, the Jays are only a handful of games out of the division and the wild card, but they aren't going to win either one of them. I naturally assume one of New York or Boston will win the division, though the Yankees are running out of time and the Red Sox don't look anywhere close to the team they were last year.
Baltimore is fading fast one can only rely on Bruce Chen for so long and frankly, I don't see what's so great about their rotation, anyway. Even with all of this, I don't think Toronto will factor into any divisional race after early August. Not with this offense, and not with Halladay-Chacin-Towers-Lilly-Walker.
2. What should the Jays do in the second half?
Get David T. Bush back up with the big club. As soon as possible. Pete Walker is a nice story and all, and yes, he's the fifth-best starting option on this team right now, but he wouldn't be if Bush was in Toronto, where he belongs.
Gabe Gross and Eric Hinske: one of them isn't needed, perhaps even both could be traded or otherwise jettisoned once Koskie returns. If the ever-discussed Big Bat Trade goes through, then you have a bunch of extra players. I'm not happy with Eric Hinske now, nor have I been in a while. You could almost bench him now and put Gross in left, Cat at DH. When Koskie returns, then you have a solid bat off the bench no matter who sits that day.
Clearly, I'm higher on Gross than Hinske, as I suspect is the case with most people.
Mick Doherty:
I think there's a very interesting phenomenon going on, and y'all who are daily Jays fans might be too close to the situation to notice it. But working in a media-centric job in the U.S. in GWB's Texas, no less I can tell you, nobody is noticing the Blue Jays. I mean, nobody realizes that this is a pretty good team; even here in the Metroplex, as plans for Rusty Greer Day (which will have passed by the time this is published) are being finalized, the "come see the Rangers pound the Blue Jays" portion of the pre-sell is a foregone conclusion, supposedly.
I think it's safe to say that Joe USA Baseball Fan has heard of Halladay and maybe Wells, and thanks to his time in Boston, maybe Hillenbrand. But Adams? Hill? Batista? Forget it.
So two interesting things here:
1. This may be good for a young Jays team in the short run, racking up wins and confidence while nobody notices; and
2. If the Jays are still hanging around in early September, they could easily become the baseball world's media darlings, the plucky little Team That Believed It Could, and even if they fall short and finish third as is likely, frankly maybe that kind of attention sways the opinion of next year's big bat free agent.
Thomas:
1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?
I think the number-one reason, as Magpie said, is Roy Halladay. I expected the Doc to rebound from last year, but I didn't think he'd be the best pitcher in the American League at the break. The reason the Jays are more interesting than we thought is because they're contending, and without Halladay, they're not contending.
Hill is reason #2 and is a fantastic story. It should be very fun to watch this kid play in Toronto, at whatever position, for the next five years. Nobody thought Hill could come this far, this fast, and without him, Koskie's injury is a lot more detrimental.
From the revival of Gregg Zaun's career to the hustle of Reed Johnson to Orlando Hudson's defence to the arrival of Chacin and Adams, there are many players to cheer for on the Jays. When the excitement of competing combines with the excitement of watching these players develop, it results in a very enjoyable team to watch.
When the Jays were "contending" in the early 00s, watching Steve Traschel take the mound every fifth day left nothing to the imagination, and was a minor improvement over the previous options. They were simply ways to try to win. But the Jays now are players to watch (for no other reason than to get a gauge on the future), regardless of whether the team is winning.
Even if the Jays, as is most likely, miss the playoffs, we'll still have gotten to see Adams, Chacin, Hill and possibly Gross turn into big-league players. We'll see if Rios can ever meet the enormous expectations he earned following 2003, and so on. Even some of the most veteran players, like Walker and Zaun, have interesting backstories.
However, with an average Halladay and without Hill, the Blue Jays are sitting comfortably in fourth place and everyone would know they wouldn't move from that spot in the standings for the rest of the year. Last year, I didn't care when the Jays lost. This year, losses like [July 5th] against Oakland really hurt. And as much as they do, I enjoy this feeling much more than not caring.
"3. What's the state of the franchise right now?"
I'm going to answer this first, because it explains my answer to queestion 2, below. I'm solidly in the contending boat. Perhaps it's the fan part of my personality that's sometimes very hard to turn off, but ever since the middle or end of May, I've come to believe that they definitely have a chance to make the playoffs this year. Without changes, it's not a large chance, but it's positively there and no one can deny it. And this is something I wasn't thinking about in April.
The Orioles were never as good as they were playing and have slowly returned to their level of play. Sosa is not the player he used to be, Bedard and Lopez are hurt, and the holes in the roster are slowly being exposed. The Yankees were never as good as people thought they'd be, but I didn't expect them to be this bad. However, it's becoming increasingly evident that (a) they are this bad and (b) they are going to struggle to improve this year.
Beane asked for Cano, Hughes and Cabrera for Kotsay, and why shouldn't he? New York is completely stuck, and Beane would like to keep Kotsay to begin with. Not many names are available, and the Yankees are going to be unable to outbid the multitude of other teams in contention to acquire whatever players are shopped before the deadline.
As for Boston, they are the best team in the East, but they are also struggling at this point. Theo should be able to add a bullpen arm or two at the deadline, but I'm not convinced he'll be able to add a big piece. The East does not have a dominant team this year, and I'm not sure for how long that is likely to continue.
I think Dave makes a good point, although I'm not convinced it's as dire as he made it seem. The Jays payroll boost is going to help them keep pace with the O's in terms of spending, even if that's far behind Boston and New York. However, he's right in that all three teams will have large budgets. The Jays do have a lot of pitching coming up, but as has been pointed out, there are no real hitters until you get to A-Ball, and you certainly can't start counting Cannon or anyone similar as an impact MLB hitter. None of the other three teams have strong systems and New York's is particularly weak but the Jays aren't sitting in a position where they know that in two years theyll have enough talent up from the minors to compete.
I don't think it will be as easy for the Yankees to fix things as they'd like, but Steinbrenner is aging and I doubt he wants to spend his last few years watching this Yankee ship sink like a heavy stone. I certainly wouldn't put it past him to radically increase the payroll, as Dave said. Plus, there's a good portion of money coming off their books at the year's end (Brown, Williams, Quantrill, Stanton, Karsay).
Theo's a strong GM and I don't think he's going sit idly by as the Red Sox are overtaken by the Jays and the O's. Finally, the Devil Rays are afterthoughts and I think they will be next year, too. However, the arrival of Upton, Young and several other players from their minors will start them moving in the right direction. They won't be the whipping boys forever. Things are looking up in the Blue Jays future, but nobody in the AL East is headed for disaster.
2. What should they do in the second half?
As Dave and Aaron have said, the Jays need to act like buyers in this year's trade market. That doesn't mean they can't be buyers and sellers (a la the 1999 or 2000 A's, when they traded Billy Taylor and then acquired Isringhausen), and it doesn't mean they should do anything that mortgages their future. However, this isn't the year to act like sellers, and I don't think they should stand pat, either. Don't make trades for the sake of making trades, but the Jays are in a position, even in a competitive year, where they should be able to make a move or two that improves the team.
Trade a reasonable package for A.J. Burnett and then sign him to a contract extension, if possible. This year's crop of free agents is weak, and Burnett is the best pitcher on the market. The Jays have a payroll increase and could find themselves hard-pressed to find places to spend it. If the Jays could trade for Burnett and then sign him in that 72-hour window to a multi-year contract extension, they'd get to take the best pitcher off the market without being forced into a bidding war against multiple other teams. Burnett won't come cheaply, and I'm sure his agent has told him of the Matt Clement-type money he could get in the offseason, but I'd still rather negotiate with him in a window rather than against 29 other teams.
Burnett loves working with Brad Arnsberg, and that is apparently why Toronto is on his short list of preffered teams. This is an opportunity that might not duplicate itself again in the near future. I don't know what a reasonable package is, and I'm not going to speculate, only to say it'd likely include Chacin, a prospect and more. Pistol's right worst-case scenario is that the Jays get some picks for him, which isn't a huge loss as long as they haven't paid through the roof for him.
Get a backup catcher. Huck, you're a great prankster, but your hitting skills leave something to be desired. Maybe we'll see you again in September.
Trade for an impact bat. Actually, I doubt theyd be able to do this and trade for Burnett, and although I think hitting is their biggest problem, signs point to Burnett. I'd love to have Dunn, Huff or some other masher to slot into the heart of the lineup, and if things with Burnett fall through, I think J.P. should aggresively, but not recklessly, pursue batters of that calibre. If hes able to get Burnett, there still might be space to add a mid-tier bat (nobody special, but a modest improvement at some position). However, the lineup may not be in terrible shape in the second half anyway, as they do get Koskie in place of Hinske.
I agree that Bush needs to come back into the rotation. That'd leave a rotation for the second half of Doc, Lilly, Chacin (AJ?), Bush, Towers. Walker's been very valuable, but I'd rather have him in the bullpen in the second half.
I don't know if Gross will be here past July 31, but if he is, I agree with the sentiment that he has to start receiving more playing time, whether or not his team is in a playoff race.
Finally, just to add to Mick's comment - on Ryne Sandberg's preview of the best series of the week (a weekly feature he does for Yahoo Sports), last weekend he highlighted the Red Sox-Jays match as one to watch. Ryno said: "I can't believe the Jays are still in it," and went onto predict a Red Sox sweep, even though he acknowledged Halladay would be tough to beat.
Pistol:
Assuming both are available, why couldn't the Jays trade for both Dunn and Burnett? They have the payroll room about $20 million on top of everyone on currently on the team right now and they have reasonable chips to trade. For instance, I would think Gross, Chacin, and Frasor would be good enough to get Burnett. Then you try to sign him to a Clement-like contract 4 years for $34M.
Dunn might be tougher to get, but if you offer Rios, Hudson and a minor-league pitcher of their choice, are the Reds turning that down? Dunn has two arbitration years left, so you'd have him for at least that period, and perhaps he would be willing to sign a longer-term deal in the 4 years for $40M neighborhood. That might make a splash, eh?
Then, in the offseason, you move Adams or Hill to 2B and try to find a reasonable FA to replace Hinske in the lineup. And if you have Dunn, you have a little flexibility in who you can sign, since Dunn can play OF or 1B.
So you might have something like this:
Adams SS
Hill - 2B
Dunn - RF/1B
Wells - CF
Koskie - 3B
Hillenbrand - DH
FA - 1B/OF
Zaun - C
Freed Johnolotto - LF
Halladay
Burnett
Lilly
Towers
Bush
Batista
Speier
Chulk
SS Loogy
Then you'd likely have two of three of Rosario, Marcum, and Gaudin working their way up (since I had the Reds taking one in trade), all of who could be fine relievers, if not starters. That'd be a pretty exciting team for me.
Maybe that's not entirely realistic, but I do think the Jays need to consolidate their roster a bit. Is there anyone who wouldn't do this?
Post-injury
Named For Hank:
Halladay's injury makes things harder, but not impossible. Dave Bush needs to return in a big, big way: ride into town and save the team. Be the big dog for two months while the Doctor recovers. Barring a trade, this is the scenario that I see most easily keeping the Jays in the race.
And who knows, Dave Bush could be just the kind of guy who rises to that challenge.
Magpie:
Losing Doc for a month, of course, makes it extremely doubtful that the team can keep pace with the Big Boys. Which was probably premature anyway this team doesn't look to me like it's on the verge of becoming one of the best teams in the game.
And even if Doc stayed healthy, the planets aligned perfectly, and they snuck into the post-season, I'd still be inclined to think that. Yes, there might have been an opportunity this year. But there will be other opportunities in other years.
Jordan:
Coming on the heels of the Rangers sweep....
Yes, that was an ugly series in Texas. But before breaking out the sackcloth and Gord Ashes, keep in mind that those three losses dropped the Blue Jays to a nice symmetrical 44-44 at the Break. This is a .500 club, folks, and that should not be considered a disappointment; frankly, it's a testament to their grit that they've won as many games as they have. The Jays are playing just about as well as could reasonably have been expected coming into the season.
Consider:
- This team has one bona fide superstar (Halladay), an above-average centerfielder (Wells), a defensive whiz at second base (Hudson), and a catcher having a late-career reanissance (Zaun). Everyone else on this club is average at best, well below average otherwise. Players like Adams and Rios will improve, but today, they're just plain mediocre.
- The highest-rated Blue Jay in Runs Created/Game is Shea Hillenbrand at 43rd. Wells follows him at 49th. No other Jay is in the Top 60. Hillenbrand and Wells are also the only Jays with an OPS above 800 (and Shea is still riding the wave of his mammoth April).
- Here are the total Win Shares rankings (which includes defence) for every Jays position player in the 14-team AL.
C: Zaun (3rd)
1B: Hinske (15th)
2B: Hudson (9th)
SS: Adams (14th)
3B: Hillenbrand (8th), Hill (10th), Koskie (17th)
OF: Wells (16th), Rios (32nd), Catalanotto (38th)
And it's not like any of these guys (except the injured Koskie) are drastically underperforming their recent production levels.
- Finally, as is well-established, the pitching staff isn't so hot either. Halladay ranked #2 in major-league VORP before his injury. The next-highest Jays pitcher is Gustavo Chacin at #40 (right ahead of Jason Johnson). Next is Pete Walker at #46 (right ahead of Aaron Harang). When your long reliever is your third-best pitcher, you do not have a contending staff. When your 2nd- and 3rd-best pitchers could be exchanged performance-wise for Jason Johnson and Aaron Harang, you do not have a contending staff. Next on Toronto's VORP list? Josh Towers at #140.
All of this to say, it's been a fun club to watch, and the mediocrity of the AL East has made thoughts of a pennant run enticing. But don't mistake this for anything but an average club with one great starter (and, I predict, a substantially below-average club without him).
Which is why I'll say, again: play the youngsters as often as possible. Get Alex Rios and Gabe Gross into the lineup every single day. Give Dave Bush a spot in the rotation. Continue giving Russ Adams playing time. Find out everything you can about what these players can offer you for 2006, either in a Jays unform or as part of a deal elsewhere. The Halladay injury, unfortunate as it is, gives the club the perfect excuse to jettison the likes of Catalanotto to clear room for the young guys.
This does not preclude the Blue Jays, by the way, from making a run at a major mid-season pickup like a Burnett or a Dunn I suspect the plan was always to use the extra payroll room to go shopping at mid-season and see what's available. If they can improve the club long-term with a July or August acquisition, they should do it those chances don't come along very often. This club is on the upswing overall; they're just not going to be a contender this season.
Mike Green:
I agree that this team is unlikely to contend. And if they do, it is not going to be because Frank Catalanotto or Shea Hillenbrand obliterate their previous established performance marks. It will be because several of Adams, Hill, Gross, Rios and Bush develop. These are good players, and they all need the chance to play every day.
The short-term and long-term needs of the club are in concert. The veteran players here are fit for a supporting role only; it is the young who will determine how far this team goes this year and next.
Revisiting Lucas chart at the top of the page the Yankee park factor is a big surprise. I hadn't noticed.
A good portion (I don't know, 30-35%) of the Jay success so far this season at run prevention has been due to superior defence. You'd think that a team with a good bullpen (as the Jays have had) would have an actual record at least close to their Pythagorean record. Perhaps the absence of a bat or two on the bench for most of the season has affected the team's performance in close games.
Mike D:
The only urgent short-term personnel need is to pick up a backup catcher. Gregg Zaun deserves a breather more often than he's gotten one lately, but the Jays can't afford to put Huckaby a de facto pitcher, really in the 9-hole every fifth day. Everyone else on the team can contribute to a club that is both competitive and harmonious.
Organizationally, it's not a news flash that the Jays need hitting at all levels. The "endowment effect" is particularly strong when talking about prospects, but I hope the Jays can find a daring trade partner willing to swap a B+ or A- hitter for a B+ or A- pitcher. There's no need to sell for the sake of selling, but if he can get the hitting equivalent of a Scott Kazmir for a veteran, JP should pull the trigger ten times out of ten.
I'm really happy with the organizational stable of young arms. I think it's highly likely that the pitching staff will be very good, 1 through 12, in 2007.
Count me as a fan of John Gibbons' usage patterns. Players with backup skill sets have played as often as backups ought to play seldom, but not never, and at their appropriate positions.
As for the kids, Gibbons has played the hot hand, but I don't think it's as big of a problem as a lot of my colleagues seem to think. Basically, I think it's a positive that Gibbons holds players accountable and demands production. Why should Gibby send the message that the organization has no expectations, and that improvement will not be required to get all the playing time you please, so long as you still wear the "prospect" hat?
Look, I understand that if you have a 21-year-old phenom who's dominated at every level, you stay the course even if they have a rotten 30-40 at-bats to start their career. But Gabe Gross will be 26 in October, and he's neither getting on base nor hitting for any kind of power whatsoever (.289 SLG, 0 RBI, 38 AB). Sure, he's had his moments The Throw won one game, and The Slide nearly won another. But I bet even Gabe would concede that he hasn't earned an everyday job. To give it to him anyway would raise eyebrows in the clubhouse.
The case for Rios playing more often is a bit stronger (since he could well be a player who will blossom as his instincts improve), but I don't mind holding him accountable as well. Limited plate discipline and limited power should not equal unlimited playing time.
I should clarify that the circumstances of this season make Gibbons' roster management appropriate. Were the .500 Jays 15 games back of the Yankees and Red Sox, then I would be more sympathetic to the "damn the torpedoes, play the kids" argument. But with the big guns faltering, there's still a good buzz about the Jays in Toronto. Playing to win and playing in meaningful games not only pleases the fans, but in my opinion, creates a healthier and more constructive learning environment for the young players.
Finally, I think Eric Hinske will be a very useful pinch-hitter and I mean that sincerely, not sarcastically when Koskie returns. It's not fair and not a good on-field decision to play Hinske for "well, we're paying him" reasons when Koskie, Hill and Hillenbrand deserve to play.
By the way, I'm more than a little tired of Shea Hillenbrand being called "average" or "mediocre." An 816 OPS is not "average," and it's dishonest to say that it is. A VORP into the 20s at the All-Star break is not "average." If he tails off in the second half as he is concededly wont to do then let's discuss then.
It seems like everyone has to prove their sabremetric street cred by disapproving of Shea. Count me impressed by both his OBP and his attitude; what JP likes the best about him, I suspect, is Shea's belief that it's no longer OK to placidly accept defeat in Toronto. And that counts for something.
Mike Green:
Hillenbrand has been precisely average. Among first basemen, the median GPA is .269, which is exactly where Hillenbrand is at. For context, he's right between Scott Hatteberg and Justin Morneau, in the middle of the first base pack.
His performance so far this year is significantly better than it has been in previous years, thanks particularly to his willingness to take a pitch for the team, but I do not expect him to be able to sustain the improvement. We'll see.
Catalanotto is in the bottom three of regular AL leftfielders offensively, ahead of Womack and Podsednik only, and way behind players such as Coco Crisp and Rondell White. Gabe Gross is, right now, a better player. He played the equivalent of a full season in Syracuse in 2003 and 2004. Any reasonable translation of his performance there has him as at least as good as Catalanotto offensively, and much better on the basepaths and in the field. Plus, he's five years younger.
Gross's handling this year has been an exhibit in how not to do things. He's been up and down, often getting ten plate trips or less in a week in the majors. How can you expect to get optimal hitting performance from a rookie under these conditions? It's bizarre, really. Wanting to ensure that John McDonald gets enough work, but not really caring whether Gabe Gross does. Usually, first-round draft picks who have done pretty well in the minors get a better shot than he has.
Magpie:
"1. Why are the Jays more interesting than anticipated?"
Besides, Doc. there's Aaron Hill and Shea Hillenbrand. What more needs to be said about Aaron Hill? No one saw this coming, not this soon.
As is well known, I've never been a Hillenbrand fan - I didn't make any bets on him, but I seriously compared his offensive skills to those of Dave Berg. (Well, hey - Dave Berg wasn't all that bad while he was here.) Anyway, Hillenbrand, even this year, is not enough of an offensive force to properly fill the role they have him playing here - he's not really a middle-of-the-order type hitter. But that's not his fault. He's an offensive plus, he moves back and forth between three positions in the lineup, and he doesn't like losing.
2. What should the Jays do between now and the end of the year?"
I believe the children are the future ... sorry about that. Keep working the young fellas into the lineup. But with both (a) expectations, which does seem to be the way Gibbons likes to do it anyway, and (b) in whatever manner gives them the best possible chance to succeed, and get a toehold on establishing themselves as major leaguers.
It's interesting, for example, how Adams has been slowly eased into playing more and more. Gibbons found himself with a lefthanded-hitting rookie and a righthanded-hitting glove whiz. He basically platooned them for the first half. As the rookie began to settle in and play better, he began to play more.
Note also that Gibbons almost never pulls the rookie for late-inning defense. He pulls Catalanotto all the time to get a defensive upgrade, but not Adams. Generally, he wants the kid out there learning to cope. Bringing in Johnny McD in the 8th every time you have a one-run lead might often be the best thing for that particular ballgame, but Gibbons clearly doesn't think it's the best thing for Russ Adams. McDonald was born to be a late-inning defensive replacement, and Gibbons doesn't really have an available spot for him the way he's managing the infield. But as he doesn't want to absolutely bury McDonald, he's still going to get the occasional start against LH.
3. Where is the franchise heading in 2006 and beyond?
Pistol is exactly right: "The team's on the upswing, pitching prospects are working their way up the ladder, and they'll have more money to work with so it seems everything is pointing up." And this actually couldn't have been said after 2003 there was no prospect of additional money to spend.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050713123217947