Jay Gibbons and B.J. Surhoff hit 6th inning homers off Dustin McGowan to bring the Orioles back from a 3-1 deficit. Dustin threw a heavy ball, and rarely gave up the long-ball, in the minor leagues prior to his Tommy John surgery. It often takes 2-3 years for pitchers to return to their pre-surgery level of effectiveness; perhaps Dustin's struggles in the big leagues are a part of the usual recovery process.
On offence, the Jays hit 7 singles, 2 doubles, drew 2 walks and hit into 3 double plays. There will be better days. That's enough doom and gloom, so instead of wallowing, let's spend some time with the best part of this year, the team defence.
It has been a real pleasure to watch the Jays play defence this year. Orlando Hudson has been consistently spectacular, while Vernon Wells, Reed Johnson, Corey Koskie, Alex Rios and Aaron Hill have been very good with gusts to great. On the field, the team has displayed gusto even when the bats have been quiet. Toronto fans' scouting report reflects our high opinion of the defence. What do the readily accessible measures say?
We'll use Baseball Prospectus' Rate 2, an index stat, and defensive win shares per adjusted game, using data from the Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus.
So, here are the results:
player Adj games Rate 2 Win Shares Win Shares/Adj. G
Zaun 100.3 97 5.2 .052 H'brand-1B 48.6 93 1.8(total) Hinske 83.4 91 0.8 .010 Hudson 113.1 117 7.6 .067 Hill-3B 30.4 109 1.5(total) H'brand-3B 47.6 99 1.8(total) Koskie 51.2 103 1.4 .027 Adams 98.7 84 2.3 .023 Hill-SS 8.0 100 1.5(total) Cat 73.3 107 2.2 .030 Wells 122.9 107 5.3 .043 Rios 102.2 105 3.3 .032 Johnson-LF 54.8 107 2.2(total)
The objective measures support our subjective impressions of the defence of Hudson, Wells, Rios, Koskie and Hill. Russ Adams' defence has been significantly below average according to the measures, with only Edgar Renteria faring worse among regular American League shortstops. Subjectively, it appeared that he started off the season poorly defensively and has improved as the season went on. I am surprised by how poorly he rates according to these measures, although it is not a surprise that he is below average.
Few have criticized Eric Hinske's defence at first base this season, and so it is also a surprise to see him faring so poorly according to these measures. Oddly, according to Rate2, he went from being an effective defensive third baseman in 2004 to being an ineffective defensive first baseman in 2005. Hinske's rating may reflect an anomaly in the Rate 2 and Win Shares statistics. His zone rating according to espn.com is higher than that of any other American League first baseman with significant playing time.
On the other side of the ledger is Frank Catalanotto. Subjectively, he seems to be an average defensive leftfielder at best, but the objective measures have him as solidly above average. According to the Rate2 measure, he has been average or above average defensively in left field each of the last three years. It seems prudent to take these measures with a grain of salt, but perhaps it can be safely said that he is an average defensive leftfielder at worst.
I will come back to this topic again at the end of the season when other measures will be publicly accessible.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2005090112350655