Jays 3 - Devil Rays 2 - Fortune Shines on Toronto

Sunday, September 11 2005 @ 08:55 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt

A few thoughts about the Blue Jays on this somber anniversary.

Fortune Shines on Dave Bush and the Blue Jays

There's been a lot of discussion the last month about how the Jays have been either unlucky or bad with runners on base since the All-Star break (even if it isn't particularly supported by the stats).

Do you ever notice how rarely we discuss when things go unexpectedly well for the Jays?

Yesterday Dave Bush walked 3, struck out 3, and allowed a homerun, but only gave up 2 runs? This was largely due to only allowing 4 hits over 8 innings. If we exclude the walks, the strikeouts, and the homer, there were 20 batters who put the ball in play. Only 3 of them got hits - a .150 average. Call it good defense or good luck - either way the Jays should have given up far more hits and far more runs than they did. Given that they only scored 3 runs, they were exceptionally lucky to win yesterday's game.

Speaking of Things We Don't Talk About Anymore

Anyone notice how we almost never discuss baserunning on the Box? It used to be a staple in the first two years of JP's reign. How much of that has to do with departure of Carlos Delgado. A BP study of baserunning had Delgado as one of the 10 worst baserunners in MLB since 1972. Having watched him his entire career, I believe it.

Dave Bush - Pre and Post All-Star Break

Pre : 0-5, 4.41 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 1.70 HR/9, 4.89 ERA
Post: 5-3, 5.31 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 3.27 ERA

Which David Bush will be seen in 2006? The margin between journeyman and 2/3 starter is pretty low, as shown by the K/9 and HR/9 rates.

The Bats

The Jays don't have a .300 hitter on the team. Their leading slugger only has 24 homeruns and has a .315 OBP. No other player has 20 or more homeruns. The leading OBP on the team is by a slow running catcher (yes, I know, that's redundant) with little power.

Yet this team is still roughly league average in runs scored, thanks to having no real sinkholes with the bat:

Shea:      289/343/428
Cat:       289/358/419
Reed:      274/336/427
Hill:      272/333/393
O-Dog:     271/315/412
League Av: 269/330/428 (approx)
Wells:     269/316/466
Rios:      263/309/390
Hinske:    260/336/421
Zaun:      260/359/381
Koskie:    245/325/413

I can't remember any other team where all of the everyday players were all about average. This is a big contrast to last season, when you had highs like Delgado and lows like Mr. Dave Berg.

Final Words

YANKEES LOSE! YANKEES LOSE!

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