How did John Gibbons organize the rotation this year? How did he juggle the starters and the off-days? Did he get anything done?
We will begin with the narrative.
As you recall, Toronto didn't quite begin the season with five starters. Ted Lilly wasn't quite ready. However, the team had an off-day in the first week, and were able to set Lilly's first start back a couple of days. So the first time through the rotation involved just four pitchers:
Halladay-Chacin-Towers-Bush. (off-day after Towers, April 7)
The first off day set up the next group:
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers (off-day after Halladay, April 25)
The off-day after Halladay's start prompted Gibbons to bring him back on his normal rest, establishing a new sequence.
Halladay-Bush-Lilly-Chacin-Towers
Halladay-Bush-Lilly-Chacin-Towers (off-day after Halladay, May 5)
Halladay-Bush-Lilly-Chacin (off-day after Bush, May 12)
The second off-day, after the Bush start, again led Gibbons to bring Doc back on his normal rest.
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Chacin-Lilly (off-day after Halladay, May 16)
Halladay-Towers-Bush (off-day after Towers, May 23)
Then, all of a sudden:
Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush
What happened? Halladay had strained a muscle in his side, and he was given a few extra days rest (he would have seven days off, altogether). To give him an extra day, Dave Bush moved up to start on three days rest. In addition, Gibbons decided to flip-flop Lilly and Chacin. Finally, after this start, Dave Bush would be sent to AAA and a brand new sequence would emerge. Doc responded to the extra time off by throwing the best game any AL starter would pitch in 2005, fanning ten and holding the Twins to a pair of infield hits in a 4-0 shutout:
Halladay-Lilly-Gaudin-Chacin-Towers
Halladay-Lilly-Gaudin-Chacin-Towers(off-day after Halladay, June 9)
The off-day after Halladay's start allowed Gibbons to skip Gaudin for a few days:
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers
And bring Doc back on normal rest:
Halladay-Gaudin-Lilly-Chacin (off-day after Lilly, June 16)
And the off-day after Lilly's start let Gibbons bring Doc back on normal rest. A new fifth starter joined the rotation, and Gustavo chacin made his one and only start of the season on three days rest, a decision made easier by the fact that he'd lasted just 2.1 innings in his previous start:
Halladay-Towers-Lilly-Chacin-Walker
Halladay-Towers-Lilly-Chacin-Walker
Two more off days (June 30 and July 4) let Gibbons go through a four man sequence twice:
Halladay-Towers-Lilly-Chacin (off-day after Towers, June 30)
Halladay-Towers-Lilly-Chacin (off-day after Halladay, July 4)
And for the final series before the All-Star Break, Gibbons tried to take advantage of the Rangers' problems with southpaws:
Halladay-Downs-Towers
Everybody got three days off, but Roy Halladay was finished for the season. A well-placed off-day (July 18) let Gibbons roll through a new four-man sequence twice:
Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Walker (off-day after Walker, July 18)
Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Walker
Dave Bush returned from Syracuse, and Pete Walker went back to the bullpen. An off-day (July 25) let Gibbons get by with another four-man sequence:
Bush-Lilly-Chacin-Towers (off-day after Lilly, July 25)
At this point, the need for a fifth starter and Ted Lilly's injury required two new faces in the rotation:
Bush-Downs-McGowan-Chacin-Towers (off day after Chacin, August 1)
The sequence got modified:
Bush-McGowan-Chacin-Downs-Towers
Bush-McGowan-Chacin-Downs-Towers
Bush-McGowan-Chacin-Downs-Towers (0ff-day after Towers, August 18)
The off-day at the end of the third time through let Gibbons shuffle the sequence again:
Bush-Chacin-McGowan-Downs-Towers
Bush-Chacin-McGowan-Downs-Towers (off-day after Towers, August 29)
Bush-Chacin-McGowan-Downs-Towers
At this point, Ted Lilly returned to the rotation, replacing Dustin McGowan. Gibbons then started the sequence that would roll through five plus identical turns, until the season was over:
Bush-Chacin-Lilly-Downs-Towers (off-day after Downs, September 8)
Bush-Chacin-Lilly-Downs-Towers (off-day after Towers, September 15)
Bush-Chacin-Lilly-Downs-Towers
Bush-Chacin-Lilly-Downs-Towers ( rain-out after Towers, September 26)
Bush-Chacin-Lilly-Downs-Towers
Bush-Chacin
As an armchair quarterback, it grieves me to have to say such a thing - but I really don't see anything to second-guess in all of this. How did the individual starters perform with different amounts of rest? Long/Off means either Long Rest (more than 5 days), or Off Rotation (first start of season, after returning from injury, after being called up, after pitching out of the bullpen.)
Rest ST W L IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA Bush 3 days 2 0 1 10.2 11 7 5 3 1 2 107 4.22 Bush 4 days 11 1 6 63.2 63 33 33 6 14 36 262 4.66 Bush 5 days 7 3 2 37.2 39 19 16 6 10 23 233 3.82 Bush Long/Off 4 1 2 27.0 27 12 12 5 3 12 106 4.00 Chacin 3 days 1 0 1 5.0 5 6 1 1 2 1 24 1.80 Chacin 4 days 19 7 4 118.0 113 49 47 11 46 69 496 3.58 Chacin 5 days 11 3 4 69.2 76 31 30 5 19 43 281 3.88 Chacin Long/Off 3 3 0 16.1 19 7 6 3 3 8 71 3.31 Downs 4 days 6 3 0 35.2 28 15 12 2 13 29 146 3.03 Downs 5 days 4 1 1 23.1 26 11 10 3 6 17 102 3.86 Downs Long/Off 3 0 2 12.0 17 11 11 2 6 14 56 8.25 Gaudin 5 days 1 0 1 1.0 7 7 7 1 1 1 11 63.00 Gaudin Long/Off 2 1 1 9.1 17 7 7 3 3 10 48 6.75 Halladay 4 days 14 8 3 104.1 83 31 30 9 14 82 403 2.59 Halladay 5 days 3 2 1 23.1 24 6 6 2 4 9 91 2.31 Halladay Long/Off 2 2 0 16.0 11 2 2 0 0 17 59 1.13 Lilly 4 days 14 6 6 74.2 75 45 45 11 38 51 341 5.42 Lilly 5 days 7 3 3 36.1 42 27 26 12 12 21 152 6.44 Lilly Long/Off 4 1 2 20.1 18 7 7 0 8 24 89 3.10 McGowan 4 days 4 1 1 19.2 26 16 16 3 9 13 91 7.32 McGowan 5 days 1 0 1 5.1 7 4 4 2 2 2 25 6.75 McGowan Long/Off 2 0 1 9.1 11 13 11 2 5 8 49 10.61 Towers 4 days 18 6 9 118.1 132 59 51 14 15 60 488 3.88 Towers 5 days 12 6 2 79.0 85 35 28 8 12 42 320 3.19 Towers Long/Off 3 1 1 16.1 20 7 7 2 2 10 68 3.86 Walker 4 days 2 0 2 9.1 11 9 9 2 6 2 45 8.68 Walker Long/Off 2 1 0 11.1 11 3 3 2 0 5 46 2.38Here are the staff totals, by the way:
RESULT ST W L IP H R ER HR BB SO PIT BF ERA 3 days 3 0 2 15.2 16 13 6 4 3 3 248 66 3.45 4 days 88 32 31 543.2 531 257 243 58 155 342 8150 2272 4.02 5 days 46 18 15 275.2 306 140 127 39 66 158 4102 1137 4.15 Long rest 12 5 5 70.2 85 42 39 11 12 55 1124 311 4.97 Off rotation 13 5 4 67.1 66 27 27 8 18 53 1058 281 3.61
Fantasy Managing
What if that line drive off the bat of Kevin Mench had gone... oh, three inches to the left. Or three inches to the right, I don't care.
Out of the break, Gibbons would have led off with his ace, of course.
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers(off-day after Towers, July 18)
Now it would be time to add a fifth starter, and so Dave Bush would be recalled from AAA to make the July 23 start against KC. As he did.
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush
I assume Gibbons would continue to make use of off-days to bring Doc back on four days rest whenever possible:
Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers(off-day after Halladay, July 24)
Ted Lilly went down after this start (July 24 in reality, July 26 in this schema). The Jays roll over the same five guys, largely because the off-days keep coming the day before Halladay starts, which makes it hard to find opportunities to move him up - it takes a month before there's a good chance:
Halladay-Bush-Downs-Chacin (off-day after Downs, August 1)
You bring Doc back on four days rest here, and then roll over the same five guys for the next four weeks.
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin (off-day after Chacin, August 18)
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin (off-day after Chacin, August 29)
Halladay-Towers-Bush-Downs-Chacin
Ted Lilly returns to the rotation at this point, so we're going to send Scott Downs back to bullpen.
Halladay-Lilly-Towers-Bush (off-day after Bush, September 8)
Finally, a chance to bump Doc ahead by bringing him back on his normal rest:
Halladay-Chacin-Lilly-Towers-Bush
Halladay-Chacin-Lilly-Towers (off-day after Halladay, September 15)
After you move Doc forward to make the start at home against Seattle on September 19, you have a decision. You could skip Bush's turn altogether, or re-insert him against Seattle. Secondary factor: after the four game series at home with Seattle, the Jays go to Yankee Stadium, and it would be good to have a LH scheduled.
At this point, it's very tempting to bring Chacin back on three days for the second game against Seattle, so that he's able pitch the finale against the Yankees. Well, if we're going to do that, why not flip-flop Towers and Lilly, so that Ted the Tease can start the opener in New York? In which case:
Halladay-Chacin-Bush-Towers-Lilly (Lilly actually did make this start against the Yankees, and was awful)
Halladay-Chacin-Bush-Towers-Lilly (by magic, the rain-out in Boston is Bush!)
Halladay-Chacin-Bush-Towers
Roy Halladay ends up making 35 starts, which is about the maximum you can get out of a single starter while keeping him on four days rest. Gibbons had Halladay start 19 of Toronto's first 86 games. Hard to ask for more than that.
Halladay's 16 second-half starts would have come mostly in place of Pete Walker (2 starts), Dustin McGowan (7 starts), and Scott Downs. Downs makes 7 second half starts instead of 12. Gustavo Chacin and Dave Bush both make one fewer (15 and 13) than they actually made (16 and 14) mostly because everybody gets pushed back occasionally to keep Doc humming along every fifth day. As it happens, Josh Towers makes all of his 15 second half-starts. Which is fine by me, seeing as how Towers was the best pitcher on the staff in the second half. Ted Lilly makes all 8 of his second half-starts as well. You can't have everything.
This is what filled in for Halladay (take all of McGowan's 7, add Walker's 2 in the second half. Mix in Scott Downs' 5 September starts. Mix and serve:)
Fill-Ins ST W L IPT H R ER BB SO ERA McGowan 7 1 3 34.1 44 33 31 16 23 8.13 Downs 5 2 0 25.1 30 16 14 10 17 4.97 Walker 2 0 1 9.1 10 6 6 3 4 5.79The team went 5-9 in those 14 games. They went 14-5 in the 19 games that Halladay actually did start. So... if Kevin Mench fouls it back... and nothing else changes... the Jays probably win 84-86 games.
But everything would have been very, very different, no?
By the way - Josh Towers led the staff in most of the positive categories - wins, innings, ERA - over the second half. He didn't have the most strikeouts, though.
Who did?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2005102001275148