Jay Winter Meeting Preview

Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:39 AM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

Two days and our roundup thread is getting long in the tooth. Babies grow up so fast these days.

So, what's new:

Pat Gillick continues to make moves with the signing of 6 year minor league free agent catcher Sal Fasano, and the signing of reliever Tom Gordon, conditional on a physical, to a 3 year $18 million contract. Gordon will replace Billy Wagner as the Phillies' closer.

The Giants signed Tim Worrell to a 2 year conract.

And there's a lot of free agent and trade rumour, which is mostly best left unrepeated.


The winter meetings start next week, and it is a good time to take stock of the home team's depth chart and options:

Starting pitching

Currently under contract or control are Halladay, Chacin, Bush, Towers, Batista and Lilly. There is surplus already here and the possible signing of Burnett would add to it.

Relief pitching

With Ryan, Frasor, Speier, Schoeneweis, Chulk, McGowan, Marcum, Downs and Walker, there are simply too many adequate and better pitchers, especially with the surfeit of possible replacements in the event of injury already slated for Syracuse.

The addition of Ryan allows the bullpen to follow a classic modern role definition. Ryan is the closer. Frasor, McGowan or Speier could conceivably set up. Schoeneweis is the situational lefty. Chulk or Speier would make a good middle man. Marcum or Walker could be the right-handed long man and Downs could be the left and sometimes switch roles with Batista.

There appear to be some possibilities to address the situation:

Option 1- keep all of them with the intention that McGowan will be moved into the rotation,
Option 2- trade one of McGowan or Frasor
Option 3- send McGowan and Marcum to Syracuse for more seasoning and continue with the same bullpen approach as 2004, but with Ryan instead of Batista.

Option 3 is the most conservative approach, and it does have the virtue of being familiar. Options 2 and 1 have the most potential for team improvement, but at least one question does need to be answered. Is Dustin McGowan ready to take on a key role, either in the rotation or as a set-up man? If it were me, I'd be taking offers for Jason Frasor, who is a fine pitcher and perfectly capable of filling the set-up role, and could even close cheaply for some teams.

Catching

Gregg Zaun and Guillermo Quiroz constitute the team's complement. It was pretty much unanimous that the Jays needed another catcher, in light of Zaun's age and Quiroz's uncertain health. Whether this catcher is to be one who will share time with Zaun more or less 50-50, or one who will be available in the event of injury or poor performance by Quiroz is the issue of the day.

The Infield

Decisions, decisions. Current personnel are Hillenbrand, Hinske, Hudson, Adams, Hill and Koskie. The options seem to me to be as follows:

1. send Adams or Hill to Syracuse or trade one, and let the other play shortstop. All others remain in their 2005 positions with Hillenbrand and Hinske sharing the first base job, subject to an acquisition of talent in the 1B/DH slot.

2. install Hill as your everyday third baseman, move Koskie to first base and Hinske to the bench.

3. trade Orlando Hudson and have Adams/Hill in some combination as your double play partners.

Hill and Hudson have the most trade value, but are in my view key to the team's future success. For myself, I'd recommend a variant of option 1. Russ Adams seems to be challenged defensively in the infield, but seems to have substantial potential as a leadoff hitter. I see his most productive role as a leftfielder or as a super-sub. Aaron Hill's athleticism, instincts and leadership warrant his installation as the team's shortstop.

The Outfield

The current lineup features Rios, Gross, Wells, Catalanotto, Johnson. This is perhaps one too many, but there is not an obvious surplus unless Adams moved here.

It's sobering, but when you actually think about it, there really is not a huge amount of surplus talent on the major league team.

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