Over 300 posts in the Overbay trade thread and I don't even think anyone even brought up Overbay's splits once. How are we supposed to be 'stat geeks' if we don't go any further than OPS? I'll get the ball rolling.
Here are Overbay's rate stats the past two years:
Overall AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BB ISO SLG 2004 579 0.301 0.385 0.478 0.863 0.084 0.177 2005 537 0.276 0.367 0.449 0.816 0.091 0.173 Total 1116 0.289 0.379 0.464 0.843 0.091 0.176While Overbay slipped a bit in 2005 it was all in batting average - his ISO BB was improved and his ISO SLG was essentially the same.
The big difference is that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .363 in 2004 and .307 in 2005. He'll probably settle into something between those two years.
Overbay AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BB ISO SLG Vs LHP 296 0.284 0.333 0.486 0.820 0.050 0.203 Vs RHP 820 0.290 0.394 0.456 0.850 0.104 0.166I found this interesting. Overbay predictably does better overall against RHPs than LHPs (using OPS). However, how he gets to that point is interesting. Look at the ISO BB and ISO SLG. Overbay has a high walk rate against RHPs and a mediocre slugging rate. On the other hand, against LHPs his walk rate is low while his slugging rate is high. His batting average against RHPs and LHPs is more or less the same. I'm not sure how to explain this - perhaps Overbay's approach is different depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
* In his minor league career Overbay hit .336/.404/.523 in 1971 ABs
* Overbay had a GB/FB ratio of 1.88:1 which ranked 12th out of 143 players this season. Unless that changes I wouldn't expect much of an increase in HRs. (Interestingly Brad Wilkerson was 138 out of 143 - that is, an extreme fly ball hitter.)
* Overbay ranked 31st in pitches/PA at 3.96. (Wilkerson was 7th at 4.21)
* Overbay's line drive % was 21.2%, above the NL average of 20.7%.
In terms of park factors here are how Milwaukee and Toronto stack up against each other (based on the 3 year park factors at BTF ):
Team R H 2B HR BB SO Toronto 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.22 0.98 1.04 Milwaukee 1.02 0.94 1.00 1.08 0.96 1.02Based just on the park factors Overbay should improve on his .289/.379/.464 line. His ZIPS projection, again at BTF, for 2006 is .303/.390/.476. I think most Jays fans would be happy with that line.