Talent Shift

Thursday, January 05 2006 @ 05:13 PM EST

Contributed by: Leigh

136 wins, 116 losses. 1,230 runs scored, 1,056 runs allowed, representing a 144-108 pythagorean record. A win in the All Star Game. A four game sweep in the World Series. That is how the American League dominated the National League in 2005. What about 2006?

Just over 100 players have switched leagues this offseason, and I suspected that the American League was getting the better of many of these transactions. In order to investigate the suspicion, I constructed lists of the players who have switched leagues. Many of these players will likely be of little consequence (the D'Backs got Mulholland, the imbalance is corrected!), so the lists that you see below are of the top ten position players and the top ten pitchers to switch from the American League to the National League, and from the National League to the American League.

I have used Hardball Times' 2005 Win Shares Above Bench to sort the players. I am not trying to use this as a definitive rating of all of these players - that's not the point - I just want to make this objective and a little bit empirical and I think that WSAB does that quite well.

AL to NL - Position Players
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Mueller    Red Sox      Dodgers         8
Rowand     White Sox    Phillies        7
Hudson     Blue Jays    D'Backs         6
Jones      Twins        Cubs            4
Soriano    Rangers      Nationals       4
Castillo   Athletics    Nationals       4
Mirabelli  Red Sox      Padres          2
Renteria   Red Sox      Braves          2
Castro     Orioles      Nationals       1
Alomar     Rangers      Dodgers         0
Total                                  38
Notables with fewer WSAB: H. Ramirez, G. Gross, C. Young, E. Byrnes, S. Finley, A. Gonzalez.

AL to NL - Pitchers
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Young      Rangers      Padres          6      
Howry      Cleveland    Cubs            6
Gordon     Yankees      Phillies        4
Vizcaino   White Sox    D'Backs         3
Bush       Blue Jays    Brewers         2
Bradford   Red Sox      Mets            1
Marte      White Sox    Pirates         1
Hernandez  White Sox    D'Backs         1
Batista    Blue Jays    D'Backs         1
Borowski   Devil Rays   Marlins         1
Total                                  28
Notables with fewer WSAB: Z. Jackson, S. Kline, M. Stanton, S. Ponson, J. Grimsley.

NL to AL - Position Players
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Glaus      D'Backs      Blue Jays      12
Wilkerson  Nationals    Rangers        10
Castillo   Marlins      Twins           7
Grudziel'k Cardinals    Royals          7
Overbay    Brewers      Blue Jays       6
Sanders    Cardinals    Royals          6
Loretta    Padres       Red Sox         6
Perez      Dodgers      Athletics       5
Bradley    Dodgers      Athletics       5
Mackowiak  Pirates      White Sox       3
Total                                  67
Notables with fewer WSAB: R. Hernandez, J. Conine, E. Alfonzo, J. Phillips, J. Thome, M. Lowell, A. Marte, S. Burroughs, D. Mientkiewicz.

NL to AL - Pitchers
Player     Old Team     New Team     WSAB
Beckett    Marlins      Red Sox         9
Jones      Marlins      Tigers          9
Vazquez    D'Backs      White Sox       8
Burnett    Marlins      Blue Jays       6
Carrasco   Nationals    Angels          6
Loaiza     Nationals    Athletics       5
Seanez     Padres       Red Sox         5
Farnsworth Braves       Yankees         3
Padilla    Phillies     Rangers         2
Eaton      Padres       Rangers         2
Total                                  55
Notables with fewer WSAB: A. Otsuka, G. Mota, L. Hawkins, R. Villone, M. Redman.

Adding up the total Win Shares Above Bench of the forty players listed above yields a 122-66 advantage for the American League. Also, the notables (who for whatever reason accumulated fewer than two WSAB in 2005) going to the American League, such as Thome, Lowell, Mota, Hernandez, Otsuka and Marte appear to provide more promise for 2006 than their cohorts going to the National League.

Boston, Oakland, Texas, Toronto and Kansas City have led the raid on the National League talent cupboard.

The American League was better in 2005, and it does not appear as though that will change in 2006.

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