Hall Watch 2005-John Smoltz

Friday, February 17 2006 @ 08:46 AM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

John Smoltz had the most interesting year of all of the Hall pitching wannabes in 2005. Moved back to the rotation by the Braves after 3 and 1/2 years as a closer, he responded with an excellent age 38 season. There is every indication that he might have two or three more good ones left.

Hometown boy Smoltz was drafted as an 18 year old by the Tigers in 1985. His minor league career began at high A Lakeland in 1986 where he threw 96 innings. His performance measures were at best so-so, but his stuff was excellent, and he was promoted to double A in 1987, where he was battered about pretty thoroughly.

I hate to bring this up, but it is necessary to tell Smoltz' tale. The Tigers were in the hunt at the deadline in 1987, and so sent the struggling Smoltz to Atlanta for Doyle Alexander. Alexander delivered for them and the Tigers won a division title that they had no business winning, but they paid for it in spades. Smoltz was sent by the Braves to triple A Richmond for the end of 1987, and he struggled some more. In 1988, he mastered triple A, going 10-5 with a 2.79 ERA and classic Smoltzist ratios, and was called up in August. He struggled in the Show over his 12 starts, but in 1989, he arrived for good.

Smoltz has been a remarkably consistent pitcher. He has had 3 off-seasons in his 17 major league seasons, and even then, he was a little above average. After Tommy John surgery in 2000, he returned as a closer and was exceptionally good in that role. Smoltz has maintained his performance level in the post-season, throwing 206 innings with a 2.66 ERA (and peripheral statistics to support it) and a 15-4 record. In this respect, he has far out-performed his mates Maddux and Glavine.

Finding comparison points for Smoltz is difficult. To date, he has thrown 2929 innings, but for 3 and 1/2 years, he was a closer and throwing presumably higher leverage innings. I will use Dennis Eckersley and Curt Schilling.

For the Eckersley comparison, through age 38, we will divide up the careers into starting and relief phases:

Starting

Pitcher  Seasons  Innings  ERA+   K/9  W/9  HR/9  W-L
Smoltz   13       2644.0   123    7.7  2.8  0.7  171-120
Eck      12       2496.0   110    5.5  2.3  1.0  151-128

Relief

Smoltz   4        285.3    160    9.5  1.7  0.7
Eck      7        542.3    160    9.0  1.1  0.8

Not bad. Smoltz was clearly the better starter, and was about as effective in relief, albeit over 1/2 the innings.

The Schilling/Smoltz comparison suffers a bit because Schilling has had less than a season of relief. As a result, I will simply lump the starting and relief innings together:

Pitcher  Seasons  Innings  ERA+   K/9  W/9  HR/9  W-L
Smoltz   17       2929.3   126    7.9  2.7  0.7   177-128   
Schill   18       2906.0   128    8.8  2.0  0.9   192-131

I have Smoltz as somewhat better than Eckersley, and about even with Schilling. So, if the reader has been following this series, my opinion on his merit as a Hall of Fame candidate should be clear. I think that he should be in if he stops now, and there is little reason to believe that he will. On the other hand, it is not clear to me at all that he will get inducted unless he continues pitching well for quite a few more years. How many people, let alone Hall of Fame voters, are aware of Smoltz' remarkable post-season career- 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA over more than 200 innings? He does not have the impressive win or save totals, and the Braves only won the World Series once. It would be poetic if Smoltz went into the Hall at roughly the same time as Maddux and Glavine, but I would have to say that I see this as unlikely.

Next up: Andy Pettitte, followed by Tim Hudson.

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