Those folks on the other side of Chicago seem to have all the fun.
Yes, that's right. Another year of Cubs baseball, another disappointment.
However, the Cubs did try to improve, I suppose. They go into 2006 with a brand new outfield -- in fact, only one of these players played for them last year and he was a rookie callup. Also, Scott Eyre and Bob Howry have the chance to improve the bullpen.
But the biggest improvements might come from returning players. If Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are healthy and effective all season long, there's a new team in town.
ROTATION
"Who's that? Oh, is he still around?"
-- Kerry Wood, on Mark Prior
Mark Prior's health has come under question when Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll reported he was more hurt than was being let on. I don't have an opinion one way or the other on the validity of the rumours, but I'd like to point out that the Cubs aren't very good at knowing when Prior will be ready to pitch. This happened last year as well, if I recall correctly. And 2004 -- he was on my fantasy team's DL spot that year. Yesterday, Prior left camp to have his shoulder examined. What a surprise.
Kerry Wood, along with Wade Miller, won't be ready until at least May, which means Miller's going to be ready in June and Wood will pitch in July. Or something like that.
I wrote the above paragraph before this happened, so it's kind of prophetically funny, but Wood underwent arthoscopic knee surgery last week. GM Jim Hendry called it "a minor setback" but more than 20 starts from Wood will be a success, I think.
Greg Maddux, who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame as soon as his name is anywhere near the ballot, just had his worst year since I was six months old. Now, he was still league average in terms of ERA, so that's not as much of a damning statement as it first appears to be. He will turn 40 soon after the season starts and he's in the final year of his contract. I thought he would have declined last year, but 225 innings, a 4.24 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP was better than I thought. What does this all mean? Well, I'm going to apply a modified "Atlanta Braves rule" here. I'm predicting Greg Maddux will have a good season every year until he doesn't.
Carlos Zambrano has been nothing short of an All-Star the last three years, and there's not much I can say about him, aside from he'll be good. Zambrano is still at the World Baseball Classic with Venezuela, and it might be a relief to Cubs fans that he won't have to be the ace of the staff -- fellow starters Johan Santana, Freddy Garcia, Gus Chacin and Carlos Silva are all on the team -- and that he went on six days' rest this Monday after throwing just 56 pitches. It's a lot for the WBC, yes, but not for Zambrano, who regularly ranks near the top of the league in Pitcher Abuse Points.
Also, in a clear nod to Wilfrid Laurier, Zambrano said 2006 shall belong to the Cubs.
Jerome Williams came over in the excellent (for Chicago, anyway) LaTroy Hawkins trade, and he's another young starter in the Cubs rotation who figures to do well in 2006. However, he is fourth or fifth at the moment on the depth chart and he figures to lose some time if and when Wood and Wade Miller are ready to pitch. Overall, the rotation is pretty solid.
OUTFIELD
I'm not Sammy Sosa. I'm just going to play hard.
-- Jacque Jones
There's a new 7-8-9 in Wrigley, and we'll start with the former Twin.
Jacque Jones, as readers of Aaron Gleeman's site no doubt already know, is a significantly better hitter against right-handed pitchers. His career splits show .294/.341/.488 in this area vs only .227/.277/.339 against lefties. Despite this, he figures to get a lot of playing time against LHP with the Cubs. Dusty Baker says Jones is the guy: "I haven't seen him on offspeed or breaking balls, but he can hit that fastball. If you can hit that fastball, you can hit." (This is the opposite, of course, of "What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.")
Juan Pierre replaces the disappointing Corey Patterson in centre. The latter's short 2003 season showed flashes of what his minor league record indicated he was capable of achieving, but Patterson has since been unable to come close to his .511 slugging percentage. His 168 strikeouts in 2004 were hardly indicators of future success.
But we're concered with Pierre here. Late of the Florida Marlins (which applies to about 23 players this year), the former Rockie's 2005 season was below his standards. He saw a severe drop on his batting average on balls in play from 2004 to 2005 and, accordingly, he lost 50 points off his slugging percentage and was no longer an above-average offensive player.
However, his .294 BABIP last year was far below his established career line of .323 and I expect an improvement from Juan Pierre, most likely better than his career level of .305/.355/.375 due to the move from Florida to Chicago. And he can steal a base or two. Or 60. He'll be fine in Wrigley, though he's a little overpaid. It's a common theme with the Cubs, I've noticed.
Matt Murton's a rookie outfielder whose minor league line is .309/.380/.451 -- he's a decent basestealer, too, and there's not really much to complain about. Sure, his defense isn't excellent, but Jason Dubois (who, incidentally, was a better hitter throughout the minors) was bad at times out there last year, and Murton is also replacing Todd Hollandsworth. According to the Fans' Scouting Report, Murton is the best option for LF, so I'd expect him to do well, overall.
Marquis Grissom shouldn't be a surprising name to see on a Dusty Baker team. He's 38, and hasn't had an OBP better than league average since 1996. Still, he hit 20 homeruns three times between 2001 and 2005, so he's not an offensive zero. And, for what it's worth, he's apparently a really nice guy. John Mabry has had a good season recently -- 2004 with the Cards. His 2005 wasn't so hot, though. Expect him to gradually take away plate appearances from Murton.
INFIELD
I'm ready to go wherever they want to play me. I just like playing.
-- Jerry Hairston
Jerry Hairston will likely get his wish; while he didn't lead the team in games at any defensive position last year, he only had 19 fewer ABs than the "competition" for his main position, second base. Hairston is what he is -- little power, decent on-base, not much of a base-stealer anymore. He hasn't been a starter since 2002, and he doesn't figure to be one in 2006.
Todd Walker is the other main second baseman, and given that Walker has started 182 games over the past two years for the Cubs, I'm expecting Walker to be out at 2B more often than not. He'd like to hit #2, going as far as saying "I’m not much of a bunter, but if you get a guy on second with no outs, I can ground out to second base with the best of them." Funny.As an aside, check out Walker's OBP by year, going backwards: .355, .352, .333, .353, .355, .355. That's in five different home parks, too. (Bonus points to anyone who can name those stadia without looking.)
Derrek Lee returns after his superb 2005 year, in which he was more or less a one-man offense. Here is an incomplete list of offensive categories in which he led the Cubs: BA, OBP, SLG, runs, hits, doubles, triples (tied), home runs, RBI, walks, stolen bases (tied). Yes, even stolen bases.
Lee was second only in games and AB to the mediocre (and departed) Jeromy Burnitz. This is all a long-winded way of saying expect another good season from Derrek Lee -- not a 177 OPS+, and maybe not a slugging average over .550 (let alone .650), but still very good.
Since Neifi Perez's offensive offense is an old topic by now, I'll move on to the third baseman. Aramis Ramirez continued where he left off in 2004, knocking 30 doubles and 30 HR again, while seeing his OPS+ go from 136...all the way to 137. He's still in his prime, and despite his recent injury history, I think he's going to be quite good for the next few years.
The infield, as a whole, remains largely unchanged: it will likely be these same four players, all of which started at least 93 games at their respective positions and combined for 74% of the innings around the horn.
BULLPEN
A lot of teams won't spend money on their bullpen and figure they'll [win] with their offense. [The bullpen] is a very important part of the game that I think is overlooked.
-- Bob Howry
Bullpens are rarely fun to preview, because relievers can go back and forth between good and bad years. Focusing on the closer is somewhat archaic, but I'll do that here. Ryan Dempster -- who, by the way, did get at least 31 saves last year and is now 3rd all-time in Saves by Canadian Players Not Born in Québec -- replaced LaTroy Hawkins, who was not a fan favourite, to say the least.
Dempster threw 92 innings (he made 6 starts through May 4) with a 3.13 ERA but a few too many walks and hits. Still, he had quite a lot of strikeouts and ground balls, and taking the top-down view, his closing season looks like a success. Batters hit just .218 off him as a reliever, and he hasn't given up a run since August 14. As a closer, he saved 33 of 35 opportunities; looking closer, 55% of those 33 were classified as "Easy" saves, 39% were "Regular" and the other two (6%) were "Tough" using the STATS, Inc definition of a save as recounted by Steven Goldman of The Pinstriped Bible. As a point of comparison, LaTroy Hawkins's saves from 2004 to 2005 as a Cub were 69% easy and 31% regular, making his save-related accomplishments not as good.
Hawkins also managed to blow 11 regular saves and one easy one against just two regular blown saves for Dempster. In all, Dempster was close to eight saves "better" than his former teammate in 2005.
As for the rest of the bullpen, anything can happen. It's a bullpen; relievers come and go like Monday night guest hosts on the Tonight Show. Scott Eyre got a...surprising contract, the aforementioned Bob Howry has been very good the past two seasons, and Michael Wuertz held opponents to a .321 slugging average over 75 innings.
OVERALL
Taking the pessimistic view, this team doesn't look to be very good to me. Lee is an offensive force, but he won't carry the team as much as he did last year. The rotation is a question mark aside from Zambrano. Neifi Perez exists. Fewer runs scored than 2005 figure to result in, oh, 76 wins.
However, thinking more on the happy side of things, it's certainly plausible that the corner infielders are going to maintain their high levels of production. Prior and Wood could be...you know, Prior and Wood. If Maddux keeps on trucking and Neifi steps aside for an inanimate carbon rod...let's say this team wins 84 games.
Splitting the difference there gives you 80-82, which just happens to be their Pythagorean W-L from last year. Not that my Cubs predictions mean anything; I did say 88 wins in '05. I'll say a fourth place finish -- Houston and St. Louis at the top and Milwaukee just over .500.
One thing I can predict with absolute certainty: the Cubs won't make the playoffs.
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