Is this the year? The Braves have won fourteen straight division titles and they are about to start chasing number fifteen. They have survived the loss of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield and now Rafael Furcal is gone. But this off-season has brought a new concern, the loss of Leo Mazzone. Could his departure be the tipping point that ends the Braves run? The Braves players and management are confident about their prospects for 2006 but this could finally be the year when the streak ends.
It is hard to say who has received more credit over the years for the Braves success between John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. John Schuerholz, the general manager, has been praised for his ability to make great trades for the Braves, and for his ability to pick up key free agents. Schuerholz, and the Atlanta talent evaluators, have a great reputation for knowing which prospects to trade and when to trade them. JP Ricciardi has stated he is reluctant to trade with Schuerholz for this reason.
Bobby Cox, the manager, is regarded as one of the best, if not the best, managers in baseball. Cox is credited with a great eye for talent. In 2005, when Kelly Johnson struggled on his promotion to the big leagues, Cox stayed with the hitter and Johnson came around and started hitting. Blue Jay fans should be familiar with Cox’s ability to develop young players as he did with the Jays teams in the early eighties.
Finally Leo Mazzone carries the unofficial title of best pitching coach in the majors. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and John Smoltz got him noticed. The resurrection of Mike Hampton, John Thomson, Jaret Wright, Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, and others gave him his unofficial title.
Cox and Mazzone have been a team for fifteen years and they have been lauded both as a team and individually. But now the team has split, Mazzone is an Oriole, and the Braves and Orioles 2006 seasons might now show the relative value of Cox and Mazzone.
Mazzone’s departure from the Braves was understandable on the surface but puzzling below. Mazzone’s desire to return home, to coach with a good friend, and to be paid more money, are all good reasons to leave Atlanta. But people generally don’t leave good jobs, for a lateral move, unless there are other factors at play. If Schuerholz, Cox and Mazzone were a cohesive team, that really enjoyed and respected each other’s company, then I don’t think it would have come to this. If Mazzone was looking for more money the Yankees job would have provided that. Sam Perlozzo, the Orioles manager, might have been a childhood friend, but Cox and Mazzone have managed and lived side-by-side for the last fifteen seasons, spending eight months of each year together. Could a childhood bond be stronger than that, unless there was another reason? I remain suspicious, and I believe something developed between Cox and Mazzone that precipitated this split.
To continue the conspiracy theory for a moment consider “Scout’s Honor”, a book published in 2005 in praise of the “Bravest way to build a winning team”. The author, Bill Shanks, is a long time Brave fan and obviously had excellent access to the organization as he wrote the book. The index at the back of the book has 85 page references for Schuerholz, 56 for Cox and only 6 page references for Mazzone. Any contribution by Mazzone to the “Braves way” is not recognized in the book, the six references to him are all in passing. Mazzone would be considered by most fans to have been an integral part of the Braves winning ways. Mazzone’s lack of acknowledgment in the book suggests that the organization knew that Leo was on the way out and they were already positioning his departure in the media.
It is undeniable that Cox and Mazzone have contributed to the Braves success. With Mazzone gone the spotlight will be on the Brave’s pitchers as baseball fans gauge how they fare without their mentor. Will Cox continue to follow the “Mazzone way” of pitching, keying off the low and away fastball, which isn’t all that revolutionary? Mazzone, or Cox, was responsible for some reclamation projects, Jaret Wright, Mike Hampton (second time through), John Thomson and Jorge Sosa. In 2006 the Braves are not looking at reclamation projects, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Thomson, Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez are experienced pitchers who know their own way, or who already know the Mazzone way. The next starter in line is Joey Devine who would be more familiar with new pitching coach Roger McDowell. The Braves starters should be well positioned to survive without Mazzone.
The Braves do not have many on-the-field changes for 2006. Rafael Furcal is gone, replaced by Edgar Renteria. Johnny Estrada is gone, replaced by Brian McCann. And Kyle Farnsworth is gone, after two months with the Braves, replaced by a selection of relievers.
The Braves starting lineup will be:
C Brian McCann, backed by Todd Pratt 1B Adam LaRoche 2B Marcus Giles SS Edgar Renteria 3B Chipper Jones LF Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz CF Andruw Jones RF Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhans
The substitution of Renteria for Furcal is the major change from the end of last year. McCann and Francoeur were mid-season additions in 2005 and helped propel the Braves to the division title. The change at shortstop could be interesting, Furcal was the Braves best player in 2005, measured by Win Shares, while Renteria was a disappointment in Boston. The loss of your best player is not easily compensated for. A return of the Edgar Renteria from 2003 or 2004 would mask the loss, but if Renteria delivers similar numbers to those in Boston last year it could cost the Braves a couple of wins compared to Furcal. Some scouts fell that Renteria added weight in 2005 that slowed him by a step, I haven't seen any 2006 reports to update his status.
Elsewhere Andruw Jones will be hard-pressed to have as good a year in 2006 as 2005. Last season Jones set a career high for home runs at age 28, it might have been his career year. McCann, Francoeur and Johnson might be hit by the sophomore slump. LaRoche will play full-time this season, as opposed to a platoon role the last few years. Will his production against lefties be enough? The pickup of Todd Pratt was excellent as he has always hit left handed pitchers better than righties, setting up a platoon with McCann.
The starting pitching is the same as 2005 other than the loss of Mike Hampton’s twelve starts. Hudson and Smoltz are the studs and, barring injury, will anchor the rotation. John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez and Jorge Sosa are the favourites to fill out the rotation.
The bullpen features three new pitchers, Oscar Villareal, Wes Obermuller and Lance Cormier. None of those guys make you say “wow” but they fit a Braves profile. Trade for average pitchers, indoctrinate them in the Braves way, then see them turn into studs. Villareal has a chance to be the closer. The bullpen also features Canadian closer Chris Reitsma who saved fifteen games last year, and a couple of rookies, Blaine Boyer and Mackay McBride.
The Braves success in 2005 was due, in part, to big seasons from some rookies and career years from Andruw Jones and Furcal, and a return to form, and the starting rotation, by Smoltz. Once again it is hard to imagine all those things going right for the Braves in 2006, plus the Mets and Phillies are getting better. Can the Braves continue to succeed based on the failures of their closest competitors? The Mets and the Phillies might not have the pitching to hang with the Braves. 2006 could be the year the Braves finally slip out of first place but the challengers are not perfect and who wins money betting against the Braves?
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