2006 Blue Jay Shadow Draft

Tuesday, June 13 2006 @ 12:15 PM EDT

The Blue Jays made their choices last week in the draft. This week I take a stab at who I would have taken with the top 5 picks.

This was inspired by John Sickels who has done 'Shadow Drafts' for many years for the Twins. Over time you see how your picks did against the picks that the teams actually made. Hopefully we'll see that a person with an internet connection and a spreadsheet doesn't do nearly as well as the professionals who (likely) pour millions into preparing for the draft.

I only went through the 7th round because I only know of so many players. Also, players that did not get drafted early I skipped over as well as they apparently had bonus demands that concerned everyone. So someone like Matt Laporta who I may have taken in the third round was skipped over because all of the other teams did.

Round 1, #13: Travis Snider, OF, Jackson HS (Actual pick #13)
6-0, 220, 2/8/88

Blue Jays: Travis Snider, OF, Jackson HS

Comments: This is easy!

Round 4, #120: Harold Mozingo, P, Virginia Commonwealth (actual pick #167)
6-1, 190, 3/29/85

Blue Jays: Brandon Magee, RHP, Bradley

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	91.2	2.16	9.7	1.6	0.6	4.9
2005	92.1	5.17	9.9	4.8	0.8	9.0
2004	75.0	4.68	9.8	5.3	0.7	7.2

Comments: With the Jays second pick I decided to go with Harold Mozingo, a RHP with big strikeout numbers. The prior two years Mozingo had troubles with walks, but this season he really cut back on them for a nifty 6.0:1 K/BB ratio which you have to like. You also have to like that name - that'd be fun to shout after every strikeout (MOZINGO!). Mozingo lasted 47 picks after Toronto selected in Round 4.

Round 5, #150: Jordan Newton, C, Western Kentucky (actual pick #175)
6-0, 190, 8/29/85

Blue Jays: Luke Hopkins, 1B, New Mexico St

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	176	0.324	0.468	0.699	1.0	18.9%
2005	216	0.329	0.422	0.620	1.6	18.6%
2004	197	0.325	0.436	0.492	1.6	17.2%

Comments: There were two catchers that I liked in the 4th-6th round area. One was Matt McBride and Newton was the other. McBride was off the board by this time so I took Newton. He strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot, hits for a consistent average and pounds the ball - a nearly .700 slugging percentage is great. In addition to catching he also played a little bit of CF so he's athletic. In round 5 that's too hard to pass up. Even if he's not a catcher he could be valuable.

Round 6, #180: Tim Bascom, P, Central Florida (actual 183)
6-2, 200, 1/4/85

Blue Jays: Brian Jeroloman, C, Florida

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	80.0	2.47	10.1	2.8	0.1	7.0
2005	113.1	3.10	9.0	2.3	0.7	8.2
2004	27.2	4.88	7.3	5.6	0.3	10.6

Comments: In round 6 I went back to pitching, taking Tim Bascom, a RHP. He's known as a strike thrower who throws 4 different pitches, and profiles to be a back of the rotation starter. His DIPS numbers are really strong the past two years - good Ks, low BBs, and low HRs and his hit rate allowed is low as well.

Round 7, #210: Jeremy Barfield, OF, Klein HS (actual 274)
6-5, 215, 7/12/88

Blue Jays: Jonathan Baksh, OF, Florida Tech

Comments: Here's my scouting report: He's Jesse's kid, that's good enough for me.  A better scouting report will say he's a pretty big kid and has good power, but doesn't have his father's arm strength.

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Each year around this time I'll look back at the drafts and look to see how the shadow draft stacks up with the real Jays draft.

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