Hall Watch 2006- Vladimir Guerrero

Friday, July 21 2006 @ 07:46 AM EDT

I was visiting Montreal sometime in 1995. It was clear that an exodus was underway but my relative Peter was not worried. "We have Guerrero", he told me. I knew about Guerrero then, ran well, a cannon for an arm, good range in right, burgeoning power, and a superior ability to make contact. And 20 years old. Probably as good a prospect overall as Manny Ramirez and Frank Thomas were about 5 years earlier. It turned out that Guerrero was not enough to save the 'Spos, but he has been a joy to watch. With luck, he'll be on the playing field for another decade.

Vladimir Guerrero was signed out of Puerto Rico by the Expos at age 17, and hit .315 with power in Rookie League the following summer. Moving on to low A ball in 1995, he took a small step forward in all batting departments. He started out 1996 in the Florida State League. After 20 games of utter demolition (.362/.388/.650), he was promoted to Harrisburg of the Eastern League, where he stepped it up even further hitting .360 with power and a positive W/K ratio of 51/42 in 417 at-bats. At his age and with his defensive abilities, he was toppermost of the poppermost among the prospects. He had a cup of coffee in the majors that year, and then came up for good in 1997 at age 21.

His rookie year at age 21 was, by his standards, one of adjustment, as he hit .302/.350/.483 only. Since then, he's been remarkably consistent, hitting usually within spitting distance of .330 and over 30 homers and about 60 walks, despite ongoing back and knee injuries and playing in unfavorable environments. He was a prolific base-stealer for a couple of years in his mid-20s, but injuries have slowed him somewhat. Still, he stole 28 bases and was caught only 4 times during 2004 and 2005. If he has a weakness in his game, it is his propensity to hit into double plays.

Let's compare Guerrero first against the great rightfielders, other than Ruth, as of age 29:

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Guerrero	4895	860	1586	936	305	.324	.391	.587	148
Aaron	5940	1077	1898	1121	342	.320	.375	.572	157
F. Robinson	5527	1043	1673	1009	318	.303	.389	.554	150
Ott	6148	1247	1939	1306	342	.315	.415	.557	158
Kaline	5979	958	1837	957	232	.305	.375	.493	133
Clemente	5321	741	1633	657	104	.304	.344	.444	113
Winfield	4385	651	1294	694	167	.285	.357	.464	134

Guerrero to this point slides in nicely between the top 4 (as of age 29) Ruth, Aaron, Frank Robinson and Mel Ott and the next group which includes Kaline, Clemente and Winfield. One can see already that durability is likely to be the only question. Guerrero does have the ability to be a designated hitter, so the likelihood is that he will be able to continue a long, long time.

How about comparison of Guerrero against his current competitors Larry Walker and Sammy Sosa at age 29:

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BA	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Guerrero	4895	860	1586	936	305	.324	.391	.587	148
Walker	3132	522	892	543	153	.285	.359	.510	128
Sosa	4664	727	1233	800	273	.264	.318	.493	114

No contest, really. Guerrero has been a far superior player to either of these guys. Sammy Sosa hit 66 homers at age 29, and had 5 good seasons left. If Guerrero can manage that, he will be, in my view. a shoo-in. That's not a certainty. There certainly have been right-fielders who faded quickly in their early 30s, from Mel Ott to Juan Gonzalez, but I like Guerrero's chances.

6 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060718194638808