Today, a look at the offseason.
Offseason:
Mike G: The focus of the club should be on winning in 2007. Wells need not be traded nor signed to a long-term contract now.
Wells' expected performance should be pretty clear. Between age 24 and 27, he's had 2 up seasons and 2 down seasons. There is no reason to believe that he won't continue at about the halfway point between the up and down seasons on average- .285-.290, 35-40 doubles, 30 homers, 50 walks. Even in the RC, that's an above-average hitter. He plays slightly above average defence in center, and is very durable. He grew into a leadership role in 2006, and there is little doubt that he will be able to continue in that role.
I have no idea what that's worth on the open market. Beltran signed for $17 million/year, and Wells is pretty clearly a notch or two below Carlos. Vlad signed for $14 million/year a few years ago and Wells is pretty clearly also a notch or two below Vlad. The Twins just picked up a 1 year option on Hunter with a net cost of $10 million, and Wells is a notch above Hunter. I would guess that about $11-$12 million/year is fair market value. Wells turns 28 this off-season; a 4-5 year contract would have modest risk.
Whether it is worth it to the club to sign Wells at fair market value is a difficult question, in light of the uncertain long-term budget constraints. I have complete confidence that Rios could play a fine defensive centerfield, but the loss of Wells might be felt in the overall outfield picture. The fine details of any trade offers and Wells' position matter in making that decision.
Pistol: The difference between these contracts and Wells is that those were signed in different times, particularly Vlad (who also had back concerns at the time). There's a lot more money out there today and a lot more teams that could get into the bidding. I'd be surprised if Wells got anything less than 5 years and $70 million.
Mike G: Pistol is probably right about the market. At 5 years/$70 million, I'd pass and chalk it up to an unfortunate side effect of the 2006 off-season moves.
Personally, I would rather have Alex Rios in 2011 than Vernon Wells, and getting Rios' name on a long-term contract at this point will not cost anything like these numbers. I can imagine though that there might be different views on that question.
Matthew E: I'd rather have Wells than not have him. On the other hand, I don't want to get held up. Maximum years and salary? I dunno... Ricciardi's generally willing to pay extra for someone he really wants anyway, so anything I could say about it is irrelevant. More irrelevant than the rest of it, I mean.
I could see the points of either keeping Wells around for a year or trading him, but: if they do keep him, they had better damn well better offer him arbitration going into the '07-'08 offseason. On the one hand, he might take it, which is good. On another hand, it gives the team longer to negotiate with him, which is good. And on the last hand, at least it leaves them with a draft pick if he eases on down the road.
I'd be fine with Rios if Wells wasn't there. Or maybe even Johnson. Maybe.
Pistol: Rios is the reason why it might make a lot of sense for the Jays to explore trading Wells, regardless of whether he's open to an extension or not. Wells is easily the Jays most valuable trading chip (aside from Halladay) and if the rotation and/or middle infield can be significantly upgrade it has to be considered.
Gerry: The Jays in 2007 will likely be a better team with Wells than without him. The Jays could trade him but they are unlikely to get a single better player back and getting several lesser players back will not make them a better team.
If the Jays were to trade Wells they could be a better team in 2008, assuming they get some younger players back. Plus the Jays would not have paid out $14 mil to $15 mil a season and through some combination of Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Adam Lind and Frank Catalanotto (or another FA) would have the position covered.
At some point the Jays have to stop planning for the future and win now. If the Jays can sign a couple of quality free agents to plug the starting pitching, shortstop or catcher holes then I see them keeping Wells. If they cannot plug their holes then they might have to trade him and plan for 2008.
Pistol: Generally getting the best player in a trade is the way to go. However, I think it’s certainly possible the Jays could trade Wells for a package of players none of who are as good as Wells and still come out ahead.
Magpie: It startles me to say this, but I think priority number one for this off-season is locking up Ted Lilly. There's not a whole lot of starting pitching on the market this winter, and no one is going to be looking harder than the Yankees. And if Barry Zito doesn't want to be a Yankee, who do you think they're gonna call? Who else can they call? Ted the Tease. So I'd want to get Lilly signed, sealed and delivered before the Yankees start kicking the tires.
Gerry: Yes the Jays should try and sign Lilly even for three years and $25 mil. Pitching is a scarce commodity and Lilly is a fairly durable, slightly above average pitcher who could get better with experience/maturity.
The free agent market for starters has been a real crapshoot the last few season with pitchers like Matt Clement and Carl Pavano not working out. as the old saying goes, "better the devil you know than the one you don't."
Craig B: Well, if the difference between Lilly and Zito is $25 million versus $36 million, I'll swallow hard and take Zito. But I think #75 is going to want more than a three-year contract.
Thomas: I'd do $36/3 for Zito over $25/3 for Lilly, but I think the ballpark for Zito will be $75/5. He's got the Cy Young and durability to back it up, particularly in such a weak class.
As for other options, the Jays do need to bring someone in to replace Lilly. They'd need it without the health questions of Burnett, but particularly with those present the team can't afford to have Chacin as the 3rd starter. Trade is one option and it's tough to speculate about that, but if they go the free agent route the pickings are pretty slim.
Vicente Padilla is one of the best choices; he had a 4.50 ERA this year in Texas and has been fairly consistent the last 3 years. However, it's been a few years since he had an ERA under 4 and he's unlikely to give you anything better than what he did this year.
Jeff Suppan would have been an interesting option, but I wonder if his playoff heroics are going to give him a pay boost on the open market that'll exceed his value. Suppan's a pretty solid middle-of-the-rotation guy with a consistent ERA+ of over 100 and he has made more than 30 starts every year since 1999. After that you get names like Tony Armas, Gil Meche, Kip Wells and Adam Eaton who are likely to be paid more than you'd want.
It's pretty slim pickings out there, so for a chance to get Lilly at $7-8 million a year for a few years, I think the Jays should do it.
Alex: The Jays should try to lock Lilly up ASAP for the reasons everyone's already hit on. The problem is, why would Lilly's agent ever close a deal before Zito signs? The Millwood Factor says Lilly makes a killing if Zito gets signed to a five-year deal. Particularly if it's a nonpinstriped team that lands Zito.
Padilla is the only other AL pitcher I'd really consider "interesting." Padilla actually has the high potential rewards to go with the risk of a three-year deal. He could be the best bargain on the market. He carries injury concerns and the dreaded "questionable mental makeup" reputation and had a rotten 2005 in the walk, homer and durability departments, but he returned to form in 2006 in an awful pitchers' park, racking up a full-season-career-high 7+ K rate and establishing himself as an AL team's co-ace. There may be a divisional exchange rate to worry about. He's pitched very well in all but one of his full seasons. It doesn't sound like he's attracting as much hype as he should be. He's only 29. If you can get him to sign a palatable three-year contract, do it. Who doesn't want to see Gibbons' reaction when Padilla breaks out his infamous spontaneous sidearm curve for the first time in a Jays uniform?
Though the Jays probably don't have the cash to go this way while also resolving the shortstop issue, a rotation with Burnett, Lilly, Padilla and Marcum/Chacin in the 2 through 5 slots would be the wackiest, riskiest, high-rewardiest, eccentricest rotation in the league. I'd love it.
Matthew: Priorities this offseason should be:
1. Starting pitching
2. Shortstop (or, if that won't work, second base)
3. A big hitter (can possibly be combined with 2., above)
The first two are obvious. The third... I think this offense is going to take a step back next year. They were running at just about maximum efficiency in '06, and you can't count on that to continue.
Mike G: The priorities should be shortstop, starting pitching, catchers (including hopefully Gregg Zaun), and a backup corner infielder, in that order.
At the right price (and assuming that he'd be content with a back-up role after his 05-06 struggles), David Bell would be a nice acquisition to let Glaus have 30 games at DH, and to fill in, in case of injury. Russ Adams would be fine as the back-up middle infielder in 2007.
Pistol: The Jays don’t trust Adams at SS anymore, he’s not going to be a defensive replacement, and he’s not going to pinch hit for too many players (unless Johnny Mac is the starting SS which is a bigger problem). If that’s the case there’s not much reason in my mind to carry Adams on the 25 man roster.
It sounds like there’s going to be competition from at least the Red Sox and Mets but I think Lugo is a tremendous fit for the Jays. They gave 570 ABs to McDonald, Adams, Figueroa, Alfonzo, and Roberts this year. Of that group the highest OPS was Adams at .601. I think Lugo improves the Jays by at least 5 wins, and maybe more by allowing Hill to stay at 2B.
Besides the obvious areas of need I think the Jays should also look to upgrade on Jason Phillips as the backup catcher (I’m assuming a Zaun/Phillips combo). Phillips can only hit lefties and has no defensive value. If Zaun got hurt the Jays would have a pretty big dropoff.
Gerry: There are two major outcomes that will impact the Jays this offseason, the Vernon situation and the hot market for free agents. All pundits suggest that MLB teams are awash in cash and that many free agents will get contracts that will appear to be very expensive. Will the Jays be able to play in that game, does JP have enough money to both sign Vernon and free agents? Will JP be able to use his persuasive skills to land his targetted players as he did last off-season. These two outcomes give us four combinations, let's consider each one.
1. Vernon elects to stay and JP signs a shortstop, a starter and a catcher. This is the dream scenario, the Jays are serious contenders in 2007.
2. Vernon elects to stay but JP is unsuccessful in luring attractive free agents to Toronto. It will be very difficult for JP to trade Vernon if he wants to stay so even though JP needs to plug holes it will have to be through other means. The Jays tradeable commodities list is short, maybe some middle relievers but that's it unless you sign a free agent to compensate (think Koskie and Glaus). This is possibly the worst scenario with JP looking to resign Johnny McDonald or an equivalent, putting his faith in Josh Towers and Shaun Marcum as starters, and Jason Phillips behind the plate.
3. Vernon doesn't want to stay and JP signs his targetted free agents. In this case there is no need to trade Vernon as free agents have filled the gaps and Vernon will be playing for a contract. JP can sit tight through next July and then decide whether to trade Vernon for prospects, which is what you usually get at deadline day.
4. Vernon doesn't want to stay and JP cannot sign his targetted free agents. In this case JP will look to trade Vernon to plug the gaps.
In summary JP will have to understand the Vernon situation and the free agent signings before he can determine which of these courses to follow as he plans for 2007. Scenario 1 is the most attractive followed by #3, #4 and #2.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20061007164918548