Hall Watch 2006- Leadoff Hitters-Ichiro Suzuki

Monday, October 23 2006 @ 12:10 PM EDT

Contributed by: Mike Green

Ichiro! is an icon. This makes it hard to look at him objectively. But, try we will. 2006 was an interesting year for Ichiro. His batting average and isolated power were down, and his strikeout and pop-up rates were up. On the other hand, he was hitting more balls in the air, and stole 45 bases in 47 attempts. Was this the first year of a decline or a transition year on the way to Ichiro developing more power? He certainly has the strength to do it, and I would not bet against him. We shall see.

Ichiro was drafted at age 18 by the Orix Blue Wave of the Japanese Pacific League. He reached the League on a full-time basis at age 20, and was immediately a dominant player, hitting .370 with Gold-Glove defence in right-field, medium range power, and good plate discipline. He maintained the same level, with modest variation, for 7 seasons before making the leap across the ocean to Seattle. In MLB, he has hit .330, with modest variation from year to year, with some power and slightly above average plate discipline, an almost perfect translation of his Japanese league performance. He has been remarkably durable throughout his career, essentially playing every game in the major leagues and missing a grand total of about 60 games in his 7 Japanese League seasons. He has been generally regarded as the best defensive right-fielder of his generation, and statistical measures do support the view.

Finding comparables for Ichiro is not clear cut. Some sources simply ignore his performance in the Japanese Pacific League, and compare his performance from age 27-32 with others who spend their entire careers in MLB. That cannot be right. There are a number of ways to adjust JPL statistics, but as Ichiro has had a flat career path and he played essentially the same number of games in the JPL as he has in MLB, the simplest thing is to simply double his counting statistics in MLB and maintain the same rate statistics.

Here is a list of Ichiro's comparables, through age 32, with adjustment for his career in Japan, with LADOPS figures for the career leadoff hitters. The LADOPS Index is park and league-adjusted.

Player AB H HR W K SB CS AVG OBP SLUG OPS+ LADOPS LADOPS Index
Ichiro! 8192 2708 122 560 768 470 116 .331 .376 .438 119 .793 110
Brock 6208 1808 122 434 1162 502 160 .291 .340 .431 114 .741 106
Raines 6405 1923 108 939 679 730 127 .297 .386 .426 128 .799 115
Molitor 5828 1751 119 568 703 344 98 .300 .362 .435 121 .772 113
Clemente 7133 2238 166 421 900 73 40 .314 .352 .463 122



Will he go into the Hall of Fame? Of course. He has the seasonal hits record, a glorious batting average and historical significance by virtue of his successful transition from Japanese baseball to MLB. He wasn't the first, but he was the one who made it perfectly clear that there were many players in Japan who were of comparable abiility to MLB players.

Should he go into the Hall of Fame? Yes. Ichiro's qualities as a hitter are considered to be overrated by many analysts. It is true that he has not been as good as Raines as a hitter, but he has been better than Brock and almost as good as Molitor. If one takes into account his defensive ability and his durability, though, he fits in easily in the Raines/Molitor class. The comparison with Clemente is interesting, and may become more interesting if Ichiro adds power, as he may. For now, Ichiro has the advantage in speed and durability, while Clemente has it in power (and a little bit on defence), but it's not a gross mismatch. Their iconic status in Japan and Latin America respectively and their physical stature makes the comparison quite striking.

Ichiro is not the player that Barry Bonds has been, as Clemente was not the player that Willie Mays was. That does not mean that we cannot appreciate them for the great players that they have been.

Next up: Alfonso Soriano

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