Hall Watch 2006- Todd Helton

Monday, October 30 2006 @ 12:51 AM EST

Todd Helton had an off-year in 2006, hitting half the homers that he hit (please forgive the alliteration) 2 or 3 years ago. Even at that, he is still a good hitter and a fine fielder. He is now 32, and at a career crossroads.

The Tennessee-born and educated Helton was drafted with the 8th overall pick of the 1995 draft by the Rockies. He reported to the Sally League that summer and struggled, hitting .254 without power. He started 1996 in New Haven in the Eastern League, and put up almost identical numbers to Gabe Gross in his age 23 season there, .332/.425/.486. It was no fluke- Helton walked 51 times and struck out 37 in 319 at-bats. He was promoted in late season to triple A Colorado Springs, where he hit well. He opened up 1997 in Colorado Springs, and found that he could take advantage of the altitude to add power. He earned a late season cup of coffee in the Show, and did not look back.

He was immediately a good player, even allowing for Coors inflation, hitting .315 with 25 homers in his rookie season at age 24. In 1999-2000, Coors was an incredible place to hit; BBRef lists as a 129 and 131 batting park over those 2 years. Helton took full advantage, gaining power and becoming a feared slugger. In 2000-01, he hit over .350 with 91 homers and 201 walks. By 2003-04, the park was not quite so extreme, but Helton was still hitting .350 with over 30 homers and over 100 walks a season. His production has fallen off each of the last 2 seasons, with injuries playing a role. His defensive abilities have also declined some over the last 2 years, but he is still capable with the glove.

So, who are his comparables? Fine fielding first baseman with excellent control of the strike zone and good but not outstanding pop. Hmm. My nominations- Will Clark, George Sisler, Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez and John Olerud. I've thrown in Larry Walker, not because he is similar as a player, but rather to show the effect of Coors on a marginal Hall of Famer's superficial statistics. Here is the chart, as of age 32 (with Sisler's caught stealing estimated based on pro-rated data):

Player	AB	H	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Helton	5106	1700	286	864	686	36	25	.333	.430	.593	143
Clark	5548	1667	218	709	920	59	44	.300	.379	.492	140
Sisler	5440	1916	81	331	233	312	171	.352	.393	.496	141
Mattingly	6173	1908	209	488	385	14	7	.309	.357	.479	130
Olerud	5902	1768	207	1016	802	11	13	.300	.404	.476	133
Hernandez	6090	1840	128	917	798	96	57	.302	.392	.445	133
Walker	4592	1431	262	532	807	190	56	.312	.389	.567	141

Context sure matters. In two of Sisler's big years, 1919 and 1920, he hit 10 and 19 homers. It doesn't sound like much, but he was 2nd in the league both seasons in homers and in slugging. He probably had about as much power as Helton. Also note that Walker at age 32 had played 1/2 his career in Montreal, a favourable pitching environment, and 1/2 in Colorado. His raw numbers would have been even higher had he played his entire career in Colorado up to that point.

Allowing for some decentralization of batting statistics in favourable hitting environments, and for Sisler's speed, it can certainly be argued that Helton, Clark and Sisler are in a tight knot, modestly ahead of Mattingly, Olerud and Hernandez. The latter 3 had been more durable as of age 32 (although Mattingly had back troubles by then, and it was pretty clear that the end of his career was not going to come close to the beginning).

Will Helton go into the Hall of Fame? Should he? Assuming a normal slow decline from here, it's a tough question on both counts. If he plays another 5-6 seasons and averages 20-25 homers and hits .300, he will put up some very impressive superficial numbers. For his career, he would likely end up a little behind Will Clark, who is out of the Hall of Fame, and a fair bit ahead of George Sisler, who is in. My guess is that he would go in, as he would be a borderline decision on merit and the superficial statistics would influence enough voters to make the difference. As for the "should he?" question, ask me in 5 years. I suspect that the answer will be "no", but I am very uncertain about it.

Next, we take a look again at the first basemen I discussed in 2004- Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome.

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