Blue Jays Sign Frank Thomas

Thursday, November 16 2006 @ 09:00 AM EST

Contributed by: Pistol

The Big Hurt is coming to Toronto.

Update: The reliable Jeff Blair writes that it's a two year deal for $18 million with a vesting option for a third year based on plate appearances that could push the total value to $30 million. (thanks to KevinJaysFan for linking that)

Update 2: The contract is for $10 million in year 1, $8 million in year 2, and $10 million in year three if Thomas reaches an unknown threshold of plate appearances.

Update 3: The signing is official now.

Last year the Jays made an early surprise splash in the free agent market signing BJ Ryan. This year they did it again signing DH Frank Thomas. Details of the contract are sketchy, but various reports have the deal for at least 2 years and $20 million. A team option with a buyout for the third year is likely. The deal is subject to Thomas passing a physical.

After two injury plagued years in 2004 and 2005 Thomas bounced back in a big way in Oakland this season. He played in 137 games and hit .270/.381/.545 for the A's. When Thomas is in the lineup he hits - his OPS+ the past 4 seasons is 149, 151, 131 and 141. His career OPS+ is 160. The key of course is keeping him healthy. A 39 year old with foot problems isn't exactly the safest bet. On the other hand, you're not likely to get a safe, premier hitter for just a two year commitment, especially without giving up any compensation (Thomas is a type B free agent so the Jays give up no picks. The A's will get a sandwich pick in 2007.).

What are the ramifications of the move for Toronto?

Thomas fills the DH spot full time for the Jays. The Jays won't be able to rotate players that need an occasional off day from the field in the DH spot. Given how Glaus looked at certain points during the season he could use some more DH time. Now he won't get more than 20-30 games at DH (unless Thomas is injured).
The lineup becomes very right handed. The Jays four biggest power hitters - Thomas, Glaus, Wells, and Rios - will all be right handed. At this point only two positions will be filled with left handed hitters. One is Overbay at 1B and the other is Cat if he's re-signed or Lind in LF. This of course could change based on who the Jays sign at catcher and in the middle infield, but it's doubtful that either will be filled with a power bat.
If the payroll is in the $90-95 million range for 2007 the Jays will have $10-15 million left for free agents. If the Jays sign one of the '2nd tier' free agent pitchers they'll likely have to go cheap in the middle infield and catcher. So Julio Lugo isn't likely an option at SS anymore.
If it already wasn't evident, it is now - Justin Speier will sign with another team. Baltimore and Boston seem to be the most aggressive pursuing him.
The outfield has at least one extra player right now. The Jays will have a few different options:

Re-sign Catalanotto to continue the platoon with Johnson, Wells in CF, Rios in RF and Lind in Syracuse to begin the season
Let Cat sign elsewhere and go with Lind, Johnson, Wells, and Rios in the OF
Trade Wells to fill the holes on the team (SP, MI, C) and go with Lind, Cat, Johnson and Rios in the OF

Unless the Jays are really short-sighted I suspect that they already know what direction they're going here. It looks like they'll let Cat sign with another team and go with Wells, Rios, Johnson and Lind in the OF.

Is this a good move for the Jays? Well, Thoams certainly upgrades the lineup. The Jays rotated 7 players through the DH spot last year collectively hitting .292/.338/.473 compared to Thomas's .270/.381/.545 line in Oakland. Thomas should add a minimum of 100 points of OPS to the Jays DH spot, and more likely closer to 150 points of OPS when you consider Thomas hitting in the favorable HR environment of the Rogers Centre. That will certainly improve the lineup, even if Thomas can't run faster than Bengie Molina.

If money was not a factor this would certainly be a good move. But money is a factor so whether it's a good move is yet to be determined. That will be determined by what the Jays payroll ends up at, the remaining free agents that they sign & trades that they make, and how the rest of the free agent market shakes out.

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