Early Look at College Pitchers
Thursday, January 04 2007 @ 08:00 AM EST
Contributed by: Pistol
A dozen college pitchers to look at that should go in the first few rounds, of which 8 are left handers.
David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
104.0 |
3.81 |
12.7 |
3.3 |
0.7 |
7.3 |
| 2005 |
69.1 |
2.86 |
12.0 |
3.9 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
The early candidate for the #1 pick in the draft. The 6-5 lefty has power stuff and strikes out a ton of hitters.
Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
28.1 |
6.35 |
10.2 |
6.1 |
0.6 |
11.9 |
| 2005 |
43.0 |
2.09 |
9.0 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
6.7 |
Speaking of tall pitchers, Brackman is 6-10 (he even looks tall in a head shot). His limited innings in 2006 was due to a stress fracture in his hip.
Joe Savery, LHP, Rice
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
62.0 |
2.76 |
9.0 |
3.5 |
0.1 |
8.0 |
| 2005 |
118.2 |
2.43 |
9.8 |
2.8 |
0.3 |
7.9 |
Savery appears to have been hurt last year as he only pitched 62 innings. He also doubles as an infielder, with a .382 batting avearge.
Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
53.2 |
2.52 |
9.1 |
3.6 |
0.2 |
7.4 |
Moskos is the closer for Clemson, pitching all of his innings in relief.
James Adkins, LHP, Tennessee
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
106.0 |
4.50 |
9.5 |
3.6 |
0.5 |
8.2 |
| 2005 |
127.1 |
3.32 |
9.6 |
3.6 |
0.6 |
7.6 |
Not to be confused with Atkins, the diet guy. Has two solid years of starting in college.
Cole St. Clair, LHP, Rice
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
74.1 |
1.82 |
12.1 |
3.2 |
0.2 |
4.7 |
| 2005 |
47.0 |
3.26 |
11.9 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
6.7 |
St. Clair is a favorite of mine. He's a big lefty (6-5, 225) who pitched out of the bullpen for all but two appearances with the Owls. However, there's a possibility that he has enough pitches to become a starter. It'll be interesting to see if a team tries to convert him to a starter in the majors like the Jays did with Dave Bush. His numbers as a sophomore look better than Craig Hansen's numbers as a junior (and would look even better with park and competition adjustments). He also had 43 Ks in 26 innings this summer for Team USA. Baseball America ranked him #19 which would be in the Jays area of the first round (see below) so I would imagine he's a definite possibility.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, TCU
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
111 |
2.35 |
9.0 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
7.8 |
A solid sophmore year starting for the Horned Frogs. His numbers are similar to Adkins, but the ERAs are much different, for whatever that's worth.
Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
50.0 |
1.80 |
10.1 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
6.5 |
| 2005 |
27.0 |
7.00 |
16.3 |
4.0 |
0.3 |
8.7 |
Another closer - Fields put up numbers a little worse than St Clair.
Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri St
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
93 |
2.81 |
9.6 |
4.5 |
0.4 |
7.1 |
| 2005 |
34 |
6.35 |
9.3 |
7.4 |
0.3 |
7.7 |
Detwiler could make a move up the draft board if he improves on his control. He took a big step last year. Another probably gets him into the first round.
James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
109.1 |
2.96 |
7.8 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
8.9 |
| 2005 |
36.2 |
2.95 |
6.0 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
9.2 |
That's a nice K/BB ratio and ERA, but with a K rate of 8 and allowing 9 hits/9 innings probably is an indication his stuff isn't as strong as other pitchers. He enjoys enchiladas.
Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
108.2 |
2.98 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
6.7 |
| 2005 |
90.2 |
2.88 |
8.1 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
7.7 |
Another big lefty starter. Schmidt is 6-2, 220 lbs. His profile is really similar to David Purcey, although he probably has a bit more control at similar points. BA ranked him at 42, but he looks (statistically) better than that to me.
Sean Doolittle, LHP, Virginia
| Year |
Innings |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
H/9 |
| 2006 |
90.2 |
2.38 |
10.8 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
6.4 |
| 2005 |
49.1 |
1.64 |
12.1 |
2.9 |
0.4 |
5.7 |
Doolittle is another pitcher who I think may be drafted higher than his current ranking. BA had him at 47, but he looks to me like a typical 1st round pitcher.
---
A lot of these pitchers were on Team USA this summer, which generally is a good indication that they're the cream of the college crop. Brackman, Doolittle, Price, Arrieta, St Clair, Moskos, Detwiler, and Schmidt were all on the team all pitched well. Here's a pdf of the stats, which also includes some of the hitters profiled a couple weeks ago.
An update on the Jays picks in the first two rounds:
#16 (from the Rangers - locked in now)
#21 (own 1st round pick)
#42 (for Speier - locked in now)
#53 (for Cat - pick will be no worse than #57)
#59 (for Lilly - pick will be no worse than #63)
#83 (own 2nd round pick - pick will be no worse than #89)
#86 (from the Angels - pick will be no worse than #92)
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