The Twins won 96 games in 2006 behind the pitching of Johan Santana,
Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan and the batting of Joe Mauer and
Justin Morneau. Can they do it again?
Probably not. They may not need to though, as a figure in the low 90s may be enough to win in a very competitive division.
The offence
The Twins had a league average offence in 2006, featuring an
impressive team OBP of .347 and not much pop and average speed. A
small improvement seems likely, with an increase in power likely offsetting a modest decline in OBP.
Nicky Punto
played a very effective Stan Laurel to Tony Batista's less impressive
(but funnier) Oliver Hardy at the Twins hot corner in 2006. Marcel
thinks that he is going to be able to continue with only a slight
decline, but lacking any power or much speed, it seems to me that this
will be a challenge. Jason Bartlett
is a fine and underrated offensive and defensive shortstop.
He too may have a small decline from his .309/.362/.393 2006 line,
although he is 27 and has shown some pop in the minors so development
in this direction would not be a total surprise. Luis Castillo
has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. His 2006
season with the Twins is consistent with his performance in Florida
with league adjustment; he's 31 years old and so should be able to keep
it going for a year or two.
Completing the infield are Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Their 2006 seasons helped the JM team of Mize, Morgan, Marichal, Medwick and McGinnity immensely, and Mauer made me look like an idiot.
Not that there's anything wrong with that. Morneau's not likely to hit
.321 anytime soon again, but the power is likely to continue and he
might take a few more walks in 2007 than he has. But Joe Mauer,
now that is another story altogether...He turns 24 next month and his
future is an unwritten book. It is dangerous to predict a step
forward for a catcher, but if there is anybody who could do it, it
would be Mauer. He has established complete control of the plate,
striking out and popping up very rarely, taking a walk and hitting line
drives like no one else. The next stop is introducing a little
loft to his swing. As a catcher, he's not going to achieve
greatness as a hitter by hitting ground balls, and the 24 double plays
he hit into in 2006 might send him a message in this regard. He has the
build and approach to be a 30 homer/.300 average/100 walk hitter in his
prime, like the great outfielders and first basemen in history. There has never been a
catcher like this (with only Piazza being somewhat close), and we shall
see if Mauer is able to raise his game. He can.
For years, the Twins could not decide whether to play Mike Cuddyer
and if so, where. In 2006, they moved him to rightfield and just
let him play. To no one's great surprise, he hit very well
(.284/.362/.504). Most projection systems have him regressing
considerably. Subjectively, I think that he is going to be fine
and will maintain his 2006 performance level. He
had been a great hitter in the minor leagues, whose early performance
in the majors suffered while he was being shuttled from position to
position. Torii Hunter
patrols centerfield. Age and injuries have robbed him of some of his
speed and range, but his power remains. Ideally, the Twins would
have another centerfielder ready, so that they could move him to a
corner outfield spot, but Denard Span
has not developed as hoped. The Twins cannot help but get better
performance out of their leftfielders and designated hitters in 2007
than in 2006. Lew Ford, Rondell White, Shannon Stewart and Jason Kubel
all had pretty much the worst year of their careers. Stewart is
gone, and it looks unlikely that the club is going to get league
average performance at either position, but even .260/.320/.420 would
make a difference, and I think that they'll get it.
On the bench, the Twins have Mike Redmond, an excellent right-handed complement to Mauer, behind the plate. Jeff Cirillo
defies age, and might end up being a part of a platoon with Kubel at
the DH slot, as well as backing up Punto. The back-up middle
infielder position is up for grabs, with Alejandro Machado the likely winner.
Pitching and defence
The Twins featured thoroughly average defence in 2006, and there is
little reason to expect much of a change in 2007. So, the Twins'
season rests with their pitching staff. With Francisco Liriano
out for the season due to elbow surgery, Minnesota is counting on some
fine young arms to develop. GM Terry Ryan has brought in
overweight veterans Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz (baseball is a summer
sport and they play indoors, so what's the attraction to well-insulated
players in Minnesota?) to smooth the transition of the young guys into
the rotation.
Johan Santana
is 28 years old and has given the Twinkies three straight Hall of Fame
quality seasons of 230 innings. Health is the only issue for
him.. Behind Santana, the Twins have Carlos Silva, Ramon Ortiz, the 260 lb. Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Glen Perkins and Ponson.
Silva was effective in Bob Tewksbury-style in 2004-05, but in 2006 his
ground-ball rate fell, his line-drive and home run rates rose, and that
was that. It is doubtful that he can recapture the glories of
before, but league-average pitching is all the Twins are asking for
from him. He will probably deliver. Ortiz is another
matter; he is 33 and has been pretty terrible in the National League
for 2 years running. The best thing for the Twins is if he gives
them 60 passably bad innings before Perkins or Garza gets called up in
late May. Boof Bonser is ready to be the Twins second best
pitcher right now. 200 innings with an ERA in the low-mid 4s is a
reasonable expectation for him.
Perkins is a lefty with excellent K rates and decent control. His minor league ERAs have not been impressive due to difficulties with runners on.
He really could use some time in the pen or some triple A work.
Garza tore through the minors in 2006, but then struggled in his major
league debut. Marcel projects him for an ERA of 4.83; that sounds about right to me. J. D. Durbin and Scott Baker might get a shot early in the year and Kevin Slowey
later. Any could make a significant contribution this year; Baker
would be my choice as the most likely to. He has succeeded in the
high minors, and has had the mandatory first struggles in the major
leagues.
Last but certainly not least, Sir Sidney might be a good candidate for
the House of Lords, for the Minnesota rotation not so much. It all adds
up to a rotation with a lot of similarities to the home nine (a great
ace, a viable #2 and a bunch of veteran and young arms fighting for
jobs). For all the criticisms of the Ricciardi acquisitions of
Thomson, Ohka and Zambrano, they sure seem preferable to Ponson and
Ortiz.
The bullpen is a great strength of the Twins, with a first rate closer in Joe Nathan, and Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes and Juan Rincon
in support. There were no skeletons in the attic for any of them
in 2006. Reyes was lucky and Crain was unlucky in 2006, but that
is of no significance overall. Glen Perkins would make a fine
second lefty in the pen for the first half of the season.
Overall
Last year, the Twins started off poorly and then heated up with the
weather thanks to a leap forward by a young pitcher (Liriano) and
wonderful seasons from Mauer and Morneau and did not cool off until the
playoffs. A similar season pattern can be expected in 2007 with
Ramon Ortiz reprising Kyle Lohse's early flameout role of 2006 but no
one quite ready to shine as brightly as Liriano did last year. I
have marked the Twins down for 90-92 wins, and in a tight four way race
at the top of the division.
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