The 2007 Jays Pre-Season Roundtable-Part 1- The Offence

Thursday, March 29 2007 @ 06:49 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mike Green

The Batters Box Roster convened for its biannual meeting in mid-March to talk about the Jays. The virtual sandwiches were stale, the beer was flat, but the conversation was, as usual, lively. In Part 1, we mooted about some questions about the Jay offence.

1. What should we expect from the additions to the lineup, Royce Clayton and Frank Thomas?

Gerry- I think Frank Thomas will hit well as long as he is healthy. Thomas struggled in 2005 and the first part of 2006 but now he has his confidence and stroke back. Thomas did play all of 2006 so maybe the injury tag is unfair but he is getting older so injuries are always a risk. I think Thomas will have a good season, although he might only play 125 games due to various minor injuries.

I am not as hopeful for Royce Clayton. Clayton is not an elite hitter but he needs to separate himself from Johnny Mac territory, if Clayton hits .220 or so then why not use John McDonald? The best case if for the Jays to win, for Clayton to provide excellent defense and for his hitting to be an afterthought. The reality is that Clayton will probably be in the spotlight all season as his average hovers in the .240's. Clayton might play 5 times a week if John McDonald gets hot.

Pistol- I think the Jays decided last year that McDonald wasn't cut out to play every day. That's really where Clayton's value is - he's pretty durable.

Mike Green- Frank Thomas will give the Jays 400 productive plate appearances, and as for Royce Clayton, he would make a fine back-up middle infielder.

Magpie- Clayton will be a small upgrade on the 2006 shortstops - he'll be adequate defensively and that will be an upgrade. And he'll hit as much as Adams and McDonald did last year (Adams and Hill were not, and Johnny Mac's glove work fell off sharply when he started playing ever day.).

Frank Thomas will like hitting in the RC a whole lot better than McAfee Associates or whatever it's called now (he hit .242 at home last season, and .302 on the road.) I think he'll play 140 games, and his hit 500th homer in mid-May and pass Ted Williams before the year is over.

MatthewE- One thing about Clayton is that Ricciardi's Jays seem to have some kind of mojo that helps out veterans shortstops. Bordick, Gomez and even McDonald to an extent have played a lot better for the Jays than I expected them to. Maybe Ricciardi knows something.

...Nah. I don't see Clayton at all. I hope he loses the job quickly and someone else steps up.

As for Thomas, I'm hopeful. Hey, if you're going to take that kind of plunge on any 39-year-old, it may as well be a Hall-of-Famer like Thomas.

Thomas- Not very much and a lot, respectively. The Jays don't need Frank Thomas to have a great year to be successful, but it'd help a lot. I see Thomas giving the team about 450-475 productive plate appearances, although overall he'll drop a bit from last year's production. Clayton's OBP will hover around .300 and he won't slug .350. I don't think much more needs to be said.

Leigh- I expect that if Clayton is in the lineup for any longer than Edgardo Alfonzo was in 2006, the Jays will be closer to the Orioles and Devil Rays than to the Red Sox and Yankees. One hitter can hurt a lineup that much - the difference between Royce Clayton and the average shortstop is larger than the difference between Vernon Wells and the average centre fielder.

Russ Adams, Ryan Roberts and Ryan Klosterman could probably out-hit Clayton. So could have Craig Counsell, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Ronnie Belliard, Mark DeRosa, Ray Durham, Marcus Giles, Chris Gomez, Adam Kennedy, Mark Loretta and Jose Valentin (among free agents), not to mention countless trade targets.

Some have been critical of the fact that J.P. Ricciardi brought Frank Thomas on board a year too late: the Thomas that the Jays are getting is one year older and much more expensive than the Thomas that Billy Beane brought to the Athletics last year. While those facts are technically true, they are irrelevant. The merits of Ricciardi's signing exist independently of Beane's signing and any other front office machinations - either in Toronto or Oakland - that happened before November 17, 2006.

Thomas' 2006 (.270/.381/.545) is a better season than has been posted by a Jays' designated hitter since Paul Molitor's 1993 campaign (.332/.402/.509). May those who find fault with the Thomas signing be haunted by the ghosts of Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Hinske, Josh Phelps, Brad Fullmer, Willie Greene, and the 1997 Joe Carter (.234/.284/.399 in 612 at bats).

Dave Till- Clayton: good field, no hit. Thomas: good hit, no field.

Thomas could conceivably go totally nuts in April. The ball tends to fly out of Ted's Shed when the roof is closed, and the park has always favoured right-handed power. That's why he signed here, of course.

MatthewE- I was thrilled when the Jays signed Thomas, because I thought the offense could use a boost, but in my mind their most important acquisition of the offseason was:

Alan Ashby.


2. What is the batting order going to look like?

Leigh- My preferred lineup would probably look something like: Hill, Overbay, Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Lind, Rios, Zaun, Adams/Roberts/Olmedo.

The more likely lineup will be: Johnson, Overbay, Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Rios, Zaun, Hill, Clayton.

Gerry-

I don't think there will be much change to the lineup, against righties it will be:

Johnson

Overbay

Wells

Thomas

Glaus

Rios

Zaun

Hill

Clayton.

Against lefties Overbey will drop to six or seven and Rios or Hill will move up.

MatthewE- I wonder if all the righties in the lineup is going to mean fewer opposition pitching changes, and therefore shorter games.

Dave Till- Apparently, they're putting Overbay in the #2 slot, at least against righties. Other than that, it's mostly right-handed power hitters, which you can arrange in just about any order you want. The opposition are going to get their outs in pairs this year.


3. What should we expect from the bench in 2007?

Thomas- Not a lot. Stairs is going to be productive, I've decided. I like him and he's Canadian. What other criteria does he need to meet? I think he'll enjoy the RC to the same tune he enjoyed Kauffman and I expect him to put up a high 700's OPS. I hope the Jays use him frequently to pitch-hit for the SS against late-inning right-handed relievers and then gets the odd start to fill in for the regulars at OF and DH. Smith and McDonald won't play much either, as at least Clayton shouldn't be far off his career average and the Jays have already decided to live with that. Phillips is the most essential reserve, as he figures to get 40 starts a year for Zaun. If we need any bench player to meet expectation, it's him.

Alex Obal- It'll be better than expected, for two reasons: Russ Adams and Reed Johnson.

Leigh- The following should be a near-daily occurrence:
"Now hitting for Royce Clayton: Matt Stairs"
"Now replacing Matt Stairs at shortstop: John McDonald"

By giving Clayton's fifth plate appearance to Stairs every day, the shortstop sinkhole is somewhat mitigated. 80% of Clayton's career OPS+ combined with 20% of Stairs' is 85.2, a greater-than-nominal improvement on Clayton's 77 and significantly better than the 48 and 54 posted last season by McDonald and Adams, respectively.

Mike Green- Don't you mean Clayton's third plate appearance? You wouldn't want to miss an opportunity, and besides if the lineup has turned around five times, it probably means that the team has scored a bunch of runs...Heck, if it was the top of the 5th or 6th and Clayton was leading off against Justin Verlander in a 0-0 game against Roy Halladay in his second plate appearance, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

MatthewE- Don't you mean Clayton's first plate appearance?

Dave Till- This year, the bench should provide plenty of comfort for the Jays' scrubeenies. No expense has been spared, which ensures that major league tushes will bask in ergonomic comfort.

You probably meant to ask what to expect from the Jays' bench players this year. The answer: pretty much the same as the above.

Gerry- Other than Matt Stairs, the bench won't be counted on for much. The Jays top nine will probably play a lot of games, unless there is an injury. Stairs will be used to spell the outfielders and Thomas. Smith to spell Glaus and Overbay, and McDonald for Hill and Clayton. Each of those bench guys will be lucky to play a game a week.


4. Alex Rios- budding superstar, average rightfielder or something in between?

MatthewE- Dances on the sand! Rios's strong September reassured me about whether his early-season success was a fluke or not. I mean, I'm still going to be a bit nervous until I see him dial 9 a few times in April, but basically I think Rios is The Guy.

Dave Till- Rios's early 2006 was no fluke: he was getting around on every single fastball thrown at him, treating the American League's best pitchers like an extra round of pregame batting practice. I think he'll get it back this year, but you never know.

Alex Obal- Superstar might be pushing it, but it's very reasonable to expect him to revert to his 30-homer pace this year. He was hitting the ball in the air more in the first half, and doing so with much more power, while putting the ball in play at the same rate he did in 2005 and 2006. I think it's unrealistic to expect a .300 average or a particularly good OBP until Rios shows he can be counted on to regularly beat the league average BABIP. However, his good bat and outstanding defense should send him to a few more all-star games in the near future.

Pistol- I'm sold on Rios. If you take out the first few weeks after returning from his staph infection he was great the entire year. I think the Jays will regret not signing him to a long term extension this offseason.

Magpie- Sold. I don't know about superstar, but all-star for sure. I think he'll have a better year with the bat than Wells.

Mike Green- It looks like there is a consensus so far among the roster about Alex Rios' prospects. Great hitter coming into his prime, if you ask me.


5. Will Adam Lind make a contribution at some point in 2007?

Pistol- No doubt. If any of the starting OFs or Thomas hit the DL I think Lind will be called up and inserted in the lineup. The chance of that happening are pretty high.

Thomas- Yes. I don't think the Jays will mess around; if there is any sort of medium or long-term injury to an OFer or Thomas Lind will get the call. The one scenario he might not would be something resembling an early season 15-day DL stint that is guaranteed to be short-term and ends up being retroactive a couple of days. Then the Jays might call up Mottola, but otherwise Lind will get the first call and he'll certainly be up in September. If he's not up before then it means the 4 outfielders and Thomas are all healthy, are all producing and that the offence has been a huge plus. If that's the case, the Jays season will have been going about as well as expected.

Alex Obal- Yes. The sooner, the better.

Magpie- It depends a little on Reed Johnson's play, and a little on the health of Frank Thomas. But I think that if we see Lind before September, it's either because he's hitting .375 in AAA or someone went down.

Gerry- Wells, Rios and Johnson have been durable so it is not certain that Lind will get a shot. Lind is a much younger version of Matt Stairs, a lefty DH/outfielder so if Thomas is injured it might not be Lind called up, Stairs could fill in.

Mike Green- That is precisely what worries me. Service time preservation seems to be behind the decision to send Lind down, and it might extend as far as using Stairs as a medium-term DH or (gasp) outfielder should the need arise before June 15 or so. As Alex said, the sooner the better for Lind.

Dave Till- Lind's contribution depends on what Johnson does. If Reed is reaching base, there'll be no place to put Lind.

MatthewE- A couple of other factors: Lind's defence, and the Jays' performance against righthanders. I think they're sending him down to work on his defence, and they feel they can afford to do so because Reed Johnson is now an everyday player. If Johnson isn't an everyday player, that's different. If Lind can play defence, or if he can't at all, those are different too. And if the Jays struggle against righthanders and need another lefty bat, that's different yet again.


6. The offence was horribly inefficient in 2006 (league average in runs scored despite superior rate statistics) and very efficient in 2005. Will they find a happy medium in 2007, or was it the clutch hitting of Shea Hillenbrand that was the missing ingredient in 2006 (!)?

Mike Green- The inefficiency of the offence last year was, in my view, mostly fluke. This year, the club is likely to find its way close to average efficiency.

Magpie- I also think it was largely a fluke, so in 2007 they should be closer to the medium. The double plays will have us all gnashing our teeth, though.

Gerry- The one area that worries me is speed on the bases and double play tendencies. Glaus and Thomas are big guys who are slow to get going, Stairs is also slow. Rios might find his way blocked on the bases behind those two. On the other hand Rios might not hit into as many double plays if he can get loft on the ball.

MatthewE- It better get more efficient, because I have a hunch the rate statistics are going to take a step back.

Dave Till- I am horribly inefficient, so I expect the team I root for to be, too.

Thomas- If the solution is Shea Hillenbrand, you're asking the wrong question.


7. The Jays scored 809 runs in 2006. How many in 2007?

Gerry- The Jays score 844 runs thanks to Frank Thomas and a healthy Alex Rios.

Magpie- They've probably lost a little bit from the catcher, as Molina's at bats are split between Zaun and Phillips. Not much. Shortstop is a wash. Thomas is a HUGE upgrade, and Rios and Hill are quite capable of having bigger seasons. If they both do, and the big boppers are healthy and productive, this team scores 875 runs. That probably won't happen, and people will get hurt, so I'll settle for 848.

Pistol- Thomas will certainly be a big improvement but there'll be at least a slight downgrade at catcher. The Jays were relatively healthy last year and got strong years out of the OF. It won't be hard for there to be a slip in any of those area either. I'll go with a similar number as last year - 825.

MatthewE- If they clear 775 I'll be happy. I think it's 50-50 whether they will or not.

Mike Green- Increased efficiency, a boost from Thomas, and big years from Rios and Hill lead to 860 runs scored.

Thomas- I'm going to split the difference between Gerry and Mike and say 852.

Dave Till- The upside for the Jays' offense is frightening. Think of last spring, but with Thomas in place of Hillenbrand. I have no idea whether they'll get there, though. It depends who gets hurt and who goes into a slump, I suppose.


Tomorrow, the Roster ponders the state of the Jay pitching staff.

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