The Jays are in a slump right now and with yesterday being an off-day it gave me the opportunity to think about what I have seen in this team. With apologies to all those who have done this before me, here are then things I think about the Blue Jays.
1. Brad Arnsberg is not a genius
When Brad Arnsberg was the Marlins pitching coach he was reported to have developed a great rapport with his young pitchers, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Carl Pavano and Matt Clement. When the Jays hired Arnsberg he came with the reputation of fostering good relationships and excellent results with the pitchers. He might have great relationships with the Blue Jays pitchers but I don't see evidence that he is any more than an average pitching coach. His star pupil, AJ Burnett, does not appear to be a much different pitcher today than he was when he signed with the Jays. The other starters, Towers, Chacin, Lilly, Okha, Zambrano, etc. don't appear to have developed much. Being a major league pitching coach is a hard job, and sometimes it is more important to be in the right place at the right time, but I don't see any reclamations or turn-arounds that Arnsberg will put on his resume when he eventually leaves.
2. Can we have one lineup for a while please?
First it was Alex Rios, then Adam Lind, now Aaron Hill in the lead-off spot. Wells has been hitting second and third; Overbay all over and Clayton anywhere from sixth to ninth. I think it would settle the players if we had one lineup for righties and one for lefties rather than drawing straws as it appears to be at the moment.
3. Alex Rios is not a gold glove candidate
Alex Rios has a very good arm and the speed to chase down fly balls, but he has dropped or missed several balls this season and missed the cut-off man several other times. Last season the Jays outfield was considered one of the best in the majors, but not this year. Some players arrive in the major leagues with the confidence to fit in from the start, Aaron Hill for one. Rios still looks like he doesn't believe he should be in the major leagues and looks to me like he is playing scared. I don't know what the answer is but I hope the Jays can figure it out.
4. Sometimes quality does beat quantity
JP Ricciardi was unsuccessful over the winter in his pursuit of Gil Meche and Ted Lilly. Plan B was to sign Tomo Okha, John Thomson, Victor Zambrano to go with Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin and hope two guys step up and take the jobs. Okha, Zambrano, Towers and Chacin each have an ERA around 5.50, which is not terrible but not replacing Ted Lilly's 4.31 from last year or not as good as Chacin, Janssen and Marcum who were about half a run better last season.
5. What is an AL East pitcher?
When David Bush was traded one of the reasons given was that he couldn't succeed in the AL East. Other pitchers have been passed over by the Jays for the same reason. If we assume that reasoning is correct how do Tomo Okha and Victor Zambrano qualify as AL East pitchers? What is the definition of a pitcher who won't suceed in the AL? If Aaron Small can win 10 games for the Yankees, if Julian Tavarez can succeed, If the 2005 version of Josh Towers can succeed is there a real definition of an AL East pitcher?
6. Frank Thomas sits middle-in
Frank Thomas looks for an inside pitch to hit. I used to think Vernon Wells was a pull hitter but Frank Thomas makes him look like Ichiro. Other teams know this too and pitch Thomas away all the time but Frank doesn't go with the pitch. If the pitcher misses, and the ball comes back over the middle of the plate, Frank will hit a line drive to left or left centre. Very few pitchers will come inside on Thomas and at this stage Thomas has to be considered a mistake hitter. When Thomas next gets a base hit to right field it will be his first of the season.
7. Jason Smith has a hole in his swing
This one is not really news but Jason Smith is vulnerable to a good fastball and particularly a high fastball. If he cannot fix it those pitches will be all he sees and his value to the Jays will plummet.
8. Small things win ball games, the Jays are built for big things
Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs can hit but cannot run or field. Jason Phillips cannot run. Troy Glaus cannot run and has trouble moving laterally in the field. There are very few five tool players and this not a terminal problem but when your dollars are limited you can get better value if you have players who provide flexibility and multiple ways to win. The Jays are built to slug their way to victory and when they are not slugging they are not winning.
9. BJ Ryan and Brandon League's injuries are the biggest losses
Reed Johnson has been replaced by Adam Lind who has hit reasonably well and played a better than expected defense. Greg Zaun was hitting under .200 when he was injured and Jason Philips has hit better than I expected. Dustin McGowan looks like he can fill in for Gus Chacin, but BJ Ryan and Brandon League were a strong eighth and ninth inning combination last season and the Jays have no replacements. With their injuries the Jays have no closer, Jason Frasor has not succeeded, neither has Shaun Marcum, or anyone else. If the Jays have a save situation this week who will save it? Who will pitch the eighth inning. This could get worse before it gets better.
10. This team might not be that good
Good teams minimize the negative and manage their losses. Good teams rarely lose five in a row, not to mind doing it twice in three weeks. All teams go through ups and downs, and the Jays will get better and win lots of games, but they are unlikely to win 95 games.
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