There is a line between a fan's hope that dies only when his club is
mathematically eliminated and what we know to be realistic chances of
actually winning. After Wednesday's satisfying thrashing of the
Yankees, the Jays are straddling that line. Shall we look a little
closer?
After 113 games, the Jays are 57-56 and 6 and 1/2 games out of the wild card
berth, currently held by Seattle, with Detroit and the Yankees a game
back and the Twins 6 back. The Jays have a run differential of +39.
Shall we go back over the last 50 years at some clubs that have made a
late rush?
The '64 Cardinals
On August 12, 1964
after 113 games, the Cardinals stood at 60-53, with a run differential
of +9. They were 8.5 games behind the Phillies, 4.5 behind the Giants,
2 behind the Reds and 1 behind the Pirates. They went 33-16 from there
on out to nip the Reds and Phillies at the wire. The popular view is
that Lou Brock's arrival triggered the Cardinal run, and it is true
that he did hit well, but the Cardinal offence was not particularly hot
down the stretch. The club hit about as well as they did the remainder
of the season, which was not particularly well given the nature of
Sportsman's Park. Rather, it was the pitching of Bob Gibson
particularly, but also Curt Simmons, Ray Sadecki and young Mike Cuellar
that was the key to their run. The Cardinals were also a little lucky,
as the Reds were probably a slightly better club.
The '78 Yankees
On August 10, 1978
after 113 games, the Yankees stood at 64-49 with a run differential of
+65. They were 7.5 games behind the Red Sox, and went 36-14 to catch
the Sox (who actually went 28-23 down the stretch). It is not really a
good comparison, because the Yanks were pretty clearly a better ball
club than the Jays are this year.
The '04 Astros
On August 11, 2004
after 113 games, the Astros stood at 56-57 with a run differential of
+37. They stood 6 games behind the Cubs for the Wild Card berth, and 4
behind the Padres, 3 behind the Giants and 2.5 behind the Phils. That
is a pretty close comparison with the Jays' current situation. They
went 36-13 the remainder of the way to capture the wild card berth.
Carlos Beltran, who had been acquired in June from the Royals played a
key role, but the Astros had been above .500 when he arrived and
floundered for seven weeks before catching fire, with the offence playing a leading role.
So what about the 07 Jays?
Yes, they can. That of course does not mean that they
will. What they have going for them is four starting pitchers in
Halladay, Marcum, Burnett and McGowan, who if healthy can give them at
least 6 good innings the great majority of the time, with sufficient
offensive and bullpen support so that a 35-14 finish is possible.
Unlikely, but possible. If they get to 92 wins, they've got a
shot. Like the Cardinals of 64, they will need some luck though.
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