Top 30 Prospects- #10-#1

Thursday, October 04 2007 @ 09:07 AM EDT

On Tuesday we delivered #30-#21, and yesterday #20-#11. Now, we are proud to present our selections as the top 10 Blue Jay prospects for 2007. Youth will be served.

10. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
Born August 8, 1985. Selected in the 5th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	19	R+	8	1	26.2	7.56	1.03	3.78	14.43	4.73
2006	19	A-	2	1	10.0	4.50	0.00	4.50	5.40	0.00
2007	20	A	26	26	121.2	10.54	0.82	3.04	9.58	4.73

Kyle Ginley made twenty six starts for Lansing and was the Lugnuts number one pitcher. Ginley was twenty years old until the season's last week and pitched very well for a young player. Ginley struck out 129 hitters in 121 innings. Ginley's strongest pitch is mis mid-90's fastball that he can spot down in the zone. Ginley also sports a slider and a change-up but he is not confident in those pitches and relies on the fastball when he is in trouble. Ginley allowed more than a hit per inning, hitters had a .378 BABIP this season, a sign that if hitters sat on a fastball, and got one to handle, they were able to put the ball in play.

Ginley needs to develop his off-speed pitches to succeed at higher levels. Ginley will pitch in Dunedin next season.

At first glance 2006-2007 would seem to be lost years for the big lefty. ERAs over 5 and then a trip to the surgeon normally do not bode well for a 25 year old pitcher, but, in Purcey's case, there seems to be a silver lining. He started off the season in 2007 pitching exceptionally well before his arm problems arrived, and his control was there. There is reason to believe that he could be a very effective reliever once he gets healthy. His stuff (91-93 mph fastball, good curve, change) is fine, his control is more than a rumour, and he has the look. The first step is for him to get healthy. After that, he will likely need to de-emphasize the curve in his repertoire post-surgery.

7. Ricky Romero, LHP
Born November 6, 1984. Selected in the 1st round (6th overall) of the 2005 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2005	20	NCAA	18	18	134	6.85	0.40	2.28	9.34	2.89
2005	20	A-	1	1	2	9.00	0.00	4.50	9.00	0.00
2005	20	A+	8	8	30.2	10.56	0.59	2.05	6.46	3.82
2006	21	A+	10	10	58.1	7.41	0.77	2.16	9.41	2.47
2006	21	AA	12	12	67.1	8.69	0.94	3.48	5.48	5.08
2007	22	A+	1	1	4.2	7.71	0.00	1.93	3.86	3.86
2007	22	AA	18	18	88.1	9.98	0.92	5.20	8.15	4.89

Think of your typical left-handed major league starter and compare them to Romero. Moving fastball around 90-92 mph, check. Above average change-up, check. A couple of breaking balls, check. Romero has the tools to pitch in the major leagues, as you would expect from a first round draft choice, it will be how he uses those tools that will determine his future success. 2007 was a disappointing season for Romero, a 4.89 ERA in New Hampshire capped by Romero's pitching poorly as the Fisher Cats chased a playoff spot late in the season. Romero did strike out 80 in 88 innings but allowed 51 walks and more than a hit per inning. Romero is still learning how to pitch and to have confidence in his pitches. Romero veered between pitching away from contact to pitching too much in the middle of the plate. Romero has to learn how to command his pitches to maximum advantage to be successful. Before the season it looked like Romero could possibly reach the major leagues in mid-2008, now it looks as though September 2008 will be his earliest debut.

6. John Tolisano, 2B
Born October 7, 1988. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 amateur draft.

The Jays dropped their Appy League team after last season so Chavez had to drop a level this season. Nevertheless, he showed a lot more in the power department finishing 9th in the GCL in both slugging % and OPS. After a slow start to the year Chavez picked up the pace hitting 13 of his 20 extra base hits in his final 76 ABs. The bat is Chavez's strength, although he's a little pull conscious at this point, and will be what carries him up through the minors. An assignment to Lansing next spring will be an indication that the Jays view him highly and are ready to challenge him.

4. Robinzon Diaz, C
Born September 19, 1983. Signed as an international free agent in 2000.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	21	A+	388	17	6	1	15	28	5	2	.294	.325	.376
2006	22	A+	418	21	1	3	20	37	8	1	.306	.341	.383
2007	23	AA	301	17	1	3	11	16	5	0	.316	.344	.409
2007	23	AAA	65	3	0	1	1	6	0	0	.338	.358	.431

If Gene Rayburn and his funky microphone were still with us, he'd say Robinzon Diaz is so old. Cue the studio audience, "How old is he?" He's so old that he began his professional career with the... blank. Cue Match Game music here. The answer is the now defunct Medicine Hat Blue Jays. That's where Diaz played in 2002 after signing as a free agent from the Dominican Republic as a 17 year-old. Passed by Curtis Thigpen in the race for Jays catcher of the future after spending a second season in Dunedin in '06, Diaz made the leap all the way to Syracuse this season and received consideration for a call up to the bigs when the rosters expanded last month. He boasts an impressive minor league resume which includes All-Star appearances in the Appalachian, Florida State and Eastern League games, two appearances in the Futures Game ('04 & '07, going 2-for-2 this year), an Appy League batting title (.374 with Pulaski in '03) and a minor league career average of .305.

Diaz has an uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball as evidenced by his low strikeout rate and is able to pilfer the odd base by going 16-for-19 over the last three seasons. However, the big knocks on Diaz are he doesn't draw enough walks and doesn't hit for power. His slugging percentage this season finally went north of .400 for the first time since 2003. He's also been criticized for his work behind the dish and his inability to work well with the hurlers. However, strides were reportedly made in both areas in 2007 and his fielding percentage was above .990. If he's unable to don the tools of ignorance on a permanent basis in the bigs, he may develop into a supersub as he has made appearances at second and third. Diaz is on target to make it to the Rogers Centre sometime next season.

3. Kevin Ahrens, 3B/SS
Born April 26, 1989. Selected in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	R	165	6	0	3	25	47	3	0	.230	.339	.321

Ahrens became the second high schooler the Jays spent their first round pick on in as many years, following the selection of Travis Snider in 2006. However, the 18 year-old switch hitter out of Houston didn't come close to matching Snider's debut season when he was named the MVP of the Applachian League. Ahrens showed good plate discipline by drawing a healthy amount of bases on balls but he didn't for average or for power, striking out around 25 percent of the time. He batted just over .160 at the end of June but he did much better in August when his monthly average went up just over 100 points. The light started to come on for Ahrens in the late going as he batted .314 in his last 10 games with 2 homers and 9 runs batted in. He batted over .300 against lefties but only hit above the Mendoza Line against righties.

Initial scouting reports indicate Ahrens needs to work on his lefthanded swing, which is said to be loopy. However, he is reported to have an advanced approach at the plate with quick hands and is projected to hit for power, drawing comparisons to Chipper Jones. Drafted as a shortstop, Ahrens played half of his games at third in the Gulf Coast, where his range is apparently better suited. The question is will Ahrens follow in the footsteps of Snider and begin next season in Lansing? The Jays brass may well decide to hold him back in extended spring training and allow him to work on his game in the GCL or he may be bumped up to Auburn. Time will tell.

2. Brett Cecil, LHP
Born July 2, 1986. Selected in the Supplemental round (38th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2005	19	NCAA	18	4	43.0	8.58	0.00	2.72	8.37	3.77
2007	21	NCAA	30	2	62.1	8.95	0.43	2.74	8.95	3.32
2007	21	A-	14	13	49.2	6.52	0.18	1.99	10.15	1.27

Of last year's Top 10 prospects, three graduated to the majors, two missed the whole year due to injury, one was traded, three others were ineffective or injured for significant parts of the season and one became the unanimous number one prospect. Therefore, it's no surprise to see a fourth 2007 draftee among this year's top 10. Although not the first player drafted by the Jays in the 2007 draft, Cecil impressed everyone with his stint in the NY-Penn League and earned his spot at number two. The fact Baseball America named him the best prospect in the NY-Penn League is a further demonstration of how far his stock has risen since draft day.

A closer for Maryland in college, many projected that Cecil would be turned into a starter once drafted and that's precisely what the Jays did with him. They increased his stamina over the season so that by the year's end he was able to go seven innings, as he did to win the clinching game of the playoffs for Auburn. His stamina isn't exactly where the Jays want it to be yet, as there are reports he wears down as the game progresses and is unable to sustain his fastball's mid-90's velocity in the later innings. His University of Maryland biography describes the pitcher as having an "intimidating mound presence" and an "intense work ethic." If his success in short-season ball is anything to go by it seems that both are accurate descriptions. Cecil's best pitch is likely his slider, which reportedly he throws in the mid-80's and which was described as a "major league pitch right now" before the draft. Cecil also throws a changeup, which he has been developing as a weapon to use especially against right-handed batters, who he can't simply pound with his fastball-curve combination. The one caveat is that Cecil is slightly old for Low-A ball and his experience is a significant advantage. Whether of not the Jays promote Cecil straight to Dunedin or send him to Lansing for a bit, it's likely that Cecil will spend the majority of 2008 in High-A, as the Jays continue to work on improving his stamina and developing his secondary pitches.

• 2nd in batting average
• 6th in on-base percentage
• 1st in slugging
• 1st in OPS
  

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