Prospects To Watch

Friday, October 05 2007 @ 10:02 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

Evaluating prospects is an uncertain pastime. Players are hindered by injuries, some obvious, some hidden to the fans and some hidden from the organization. Position players can often show little until they mature, sometimes around age 21. Pitchers can be helped by a new pitch or better mechanics that improve their control. In 2007 Brian Wolfe pitched well in the bullpen for the Jays even though he was not rated as a top 30 prospect by Batters Box or Baseball America.

In that spirit here are some players to watch who just missed our top 30 list. There is very little reason to differentiate between the bottom half of Blue Jay prospects this year. An argument could be made for any of these players to be in the top 30.

Chad Blackwell, RHP
Born January 7, 1983. Selected in the 6th round by Kansas City in the 2004 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2005
22
A(KC)
48
0
68.2
8.13
0.52
3.54
9.70
2.23
2005
22
A+(KC)
1
0
2.0
18.00
4.50
0.00
22.50
13.50
2006
23
AA(PIT)
4
0
35.1
10.95
0.25
4.58
6.88
5.35
2006
23
A+(PIT)
19
0
6.0
12.00
0.00
3.00
9.00
7.50
2007
24
A+
15
0
23.2
8.37
1.14
1.52
7.23
2.28

The former South Carolina closer made an impressive debut in the Royals system. After leaving NCAA Division I in saves with 20 in 2004, Blackwell punched out 46 batters in 33 innings and racked up 7 saves with Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League. He followed that up with a 2.23 ERA with Burlington in 2005 while continuing his K an inning pace. He earned a brief call-up to the hitters haven known as High Desert where he got knocked around in his lone appearance. He was expected to move fast in the Royals system where he was pegged to be a setup man. However, Blackwell was sent to Pittsburgh as part of a trade for eventual former Jays farmhand Mark Redman. Arm problems delayed his debut in the Bucs organization. Listing Jack Black as his favourite actor, Blackwell's performance in the Pirates system could be compared to "Nacho Libre", where he struggled in Double A with Altoona before being sent down to Lynchburg, where he struggled some more.

Blackwell was soon released and he began 2007 out of affiliated baseball. He hooked up with the Gary SouthShore Rail Cats of the independent Northern League where his performance was more like the "School of Rock". He went 4-0 with an ERA of 1.09 and his WHIP was below 1.00 which is quite an accomplishment as the Northern League is considered to be a hitters league. That convinced the Jays to give him another shot at affiliated ball where he fjoined up with Dunedin. At 24, Blackwell has to move quickly to prove himself. Scouting reports say he has a funky, low three-quarters delivery with an odd leg kick. He tops out at 90 MPH with his fastball and also throws a slider and change with good command. Blackwell and fellow Dunedin pitcher Jeremy Zick were lured out of the independent leagues this season with Zick coming from Long Beach of the Golden League after spending time with the St. Louis organization. It'll be interesting to see if the Jays continue to tap into the unaffiliated minors for more prospects in the future.


Scott Campbell, 2B
Born September 25, 1984, selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2005 20 NCAA 211 10 1
1
43
32 0
3 .332
.462
.403
2006 21
NCAA
211
9
0
4
39
17
6
6
.389
.488 .488
2006
21
A-
240
14
0
0
33
31
2
10
.292
.397
.350
2007 22 A 390
17
4 7
68
56
4
5
.279 .390
.397

The New Zealander Campbell has made a seamless transition to pro ball from Gonzaga University. His major asset is his superior strike zone control. In 2007, he added just enough over-the-fence power to keep the pitchers honest. If he can play solid defence at second and continue this performance at higher levels in 2008, he may yet have a major league career, perhaps in a utility role.


Graham Godfrey, RHP
Born August 9, 1984. Selected in the 34th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007 22 A 21 21 110.2 10.73 0.65 2.93 6.02 3.98

Graham Godfrey was a fifth to tenth round talent who lasted until the 34th round because he could go back to school. The Jays persuaded Godfrey to sign a pro contract and he began 2007 in extended spring training. Godfrey was called up to Lansing in May and was a fixture in the rotation the rest of the way. Godfrey features a low nineties fastball, a slider and a change-up. The numbers show Godfrey doesn't miss enough bats and allows a few too many hits. The slider and change-up are works-in-process and need to be improved for Godfrey to progress.


Anthony Hatch, 3B
Born August 30, 1983. Selected in the 13th round of the 2005 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2005 21 NCAA 107 11 0 6 10 9 1 1 .393 .438 .664
2005 21 R+ 128 11 2 5 9 30 0 1 .273 .331 .508
2006 22 A 230 22 2 9 32 36 4 2 .309 .401 .539
2006 22 A+ 8 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 .500 .600 .750
2007 23 A+ 481 24 6 15 32 86 5 4 .249 .305 .418

Anthony Hatch was our number 20 prospect last season after a strong 2006 campaign. Over the winter Hatch had surgery on both wrists but was ready to play for Dunedin in 2007. Hatch's average dropped from .314 to .248 although he did have 44 extra base hits with fifteen home runs. If the wrist surgery impacted Hatch in 2007 then he should be positioned for a good 2008; if he was completely recovered in 2007 then he needs to improve his batting average in AA next season. Hatch turned 24 at the end of the season and will be pushed up to AA next season per Dick Scott in our end-of-season interview to be published next week.


Josh Kreuzer, 1B
Born September 28, 1982. Signed as a minor league free agent in 2006.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2004
21
A
362
34
3
10
53
87
2
0
.265
.359
.459
2005
22
A+
400
25
1
11
49
89
3
2
.260
.364
.410
2006
23
A+
187
19
0
7
21
46
1
0
.257
.352
.471
2007
24
A+
404
34
0
20
62
82
1
2
.309
.431
.542


Josh Kreuzer has the honour of finishing 31st on the Top 30 prospect list. Kreuzer was signed as a minor-league free agent by the Blue Jays in 2006 after the Rangers cut him. He had an injury-plagued year for Dunedin and found himself back in High-A ball again in 2007. Although one must be wary of a player repeating a level for the third year, Kreuzer demolished Florida State League pitching. He led the league in OPS and in RC/G and finished in the top 10 in doubles, home runs, RBI and walks. A couple of other offensive stats to note are that Kreuzer was hit by a pitch 25 times this season, which was a career high but not a drastic departure from his career rate, as he was hit 19 times in 2005, his last full season. Also, Kreuzer doesn't ground into many double plays for a big power hitter, with 9 GIDP this year and only 5 in 2005. A first baseman, Kreuzer is fighting both his age and his place on the defensive spectrum. There's always going to be hitters trying to take a first baseman's job. Nevertheless, such a fine offensive season can't be ignored and Kreuzer should be at New Hampshire next year, where he'll be given an opportunity to prove that his year marked a turning point and and not a case of the third time's the charm.

Robert Leffler, RHP
Born August 7, 1984. Selected in the 8th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007 22 R
20 0
21.2 8.31 0.83 2.08 9.97 1.25
2007
22
A-
4
0
4.2
1.93
0.00
5.79
11.57
0.00

Robert (formerly Scott) Leffler was a catcher at the University of Tampa until converted to relief early in 2007. He was throwing 94, and had an interesting slurve, when drafted, but his control was a work in progress. He seems to have made some headway on this in his first pro season, and shone in the playoffs for Auburn. These late conversions to relief sometimes pay off big-time (see Hoffman, Trevor). Leffler will likely begin 2008 in Lansing.


Michael Macdonald, RHP
Born October 29th, 1981. Selected in the 15th round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2005
23
A
25
23
127.1
9.61
0.28
2.83
6.15
4.24
2006
24
AA
28
28
171.1
9.46
0.47
1.94
5.51
3.94
2007
24
AA
5
5
28.2
9.73
0.31
2.83
3.14
2.51
2007
25
AAA
23
23
134.2
10.76
0.67
2.27
5.55
4.88

Michael Macdonald came to organization without a lot of fanfare. He was a relatively late round pick, no hype, no big bonus, and stuff that doesn't 'wow' you. But Macdonald just goes out there and pitches effectively, moves up to the next level and pitches nearly as effectively at that level. If he makes it to Toronto it will almost certainly be in the bullpen, but someone that generates a lot of groundballs could be pretty effective with McDonald and Hill in the middle infield.


Darin Mastroianni
Born August 26, 1985. Selected in the 16th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007 21
A-
230
11
4
3
36
42
20
10
.287
.391 .409

Darin Mastroianni was selected in the16th round out of Southern Indiana where he transferred from Winthtrop University, but I can't find any easy-to-read information on his college statistics beyond 2005. I know Mastroianni set Southern Indiana single-season records for hits and stolen bases. He was 64 for 67 in stolen base attempts, to lead NCAA Division II and leading Southern Indiana to their first ever Division-II College World Series berth. Nevertheless, Mastroianni showed a lot to like at Auburn this year. He's a smart hitter with a good approach at the plate, as one can tell by his K/BB rate. He also has gap power and fine speed, as one can tell from his four triples and 20 stolen bases. He had a good success rate in college, so Mastroianni's high caught stealing total is probably a result of him needing to make a few adjustments as a professional and perhaps partially bad luck. Mastroianni can't play shortstop, because of his arm, but if he's apparently at least an average defender at 2B and hopefully should be able to stick there. There's also talk he could play CF as a pro because of his speed and he did start 3 games there for Auburn this season.

Aaron Mathews, OF
Born May 10, 1982. Selected in the 19th round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2004 22 A- 283 10 6 0 33 47 6 6 .265 .349 .343
2005 23 A 204 11 5 4 21 40 11 3 .289 .352 .451
2006 24 A+ 462 23 5 9 34 59 9 7 .281 .330 .411
2007 25 AA 471 34 4 8 27 79 5 2 .293 .334 .433

The good news for Aaron Mathews is he increased all his averages while moving up a level to AA. Through June Mathews looked like the second coming of Reed Johnson but Mathews hit .239 in July and .246 in August to end his season on a down note. Mathews has been pretty consistent through his four years as a Blue Jay could make it as a Reed Johnson type if he can find that first half of 2007 form when he starts 2008.


Seth Overbey, RHP
Born April 30th, 1984. Selected in the 15th round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2006
22
NCAA
29
0
49.0
9.55
0.73
1.84
7.35
3.49
2006
22
A-
23
0
44.2
7.46
0.60
2.42
5.84
2.42
2007
23
A
16
0
24.2
4.38
0.00
1.46
7.66
0.00
2007
23
A+
9
0
10.0
7.20
0.00
2.70
7.20
0.90
2007
23
AA
30
0
50.2
9.77
0.53
2.66
5.68
4.26

It took a few months to find a challenge for Seth Overbey. He started out in Lansing and after 24.2 scoreless innings was promoted to Dunedin where he only gave up 1 run in 10 innings. New Hampshire was another matter as AA hitters were able to handle Overbey's stuff. Like Mike Macdonald, Overbey is a groundball pitcher. He'll likely get another crack at pitching in New Hampshire next year.


Joe Wice, LHP
Born September 1, 1985. Selected in the 22nd round of the 2004 amateur draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2005
19
R
10
10
45.0
11.00
3.00
2.00
7.00
5.40
2006
20
R
20
1
36.0
8.75
0.50
2.25
10.50
3.75
2006
20
A
1
0
2.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
2007
21
A-
23
1
40.1
9.15
0.22
0.67
11.38
3.12

Named Auburn's relief pitcher of the year for 2007, the 6-6 lefty from the junior college ranks in Utah posted an absolutely stellar K/BB ratio of 51-3 in 40.1 innings of work for the NY Penn League champion Doubledays this season. He also contributed with a perfect 4-0 record and notched a half-dozen saves. His final line would've been more impressive if it weren't for a couple of rough outings to begin his season in June when he gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings.

Wice began his pro career as a starter in Pulaski in 2005 but wound up straining the ulnar collateral ligment in his elbow. He returned to Pulaski in '06 and found more success as a reliever, winning 4 of 5 decisions while posting a K/BB ratio of 42-9 in 36 innings. That earned him a one game call-up to Lansing, where he punched out a couple of batters over 2 perfect innings. Wice, who is described as a crafty lefty who throws an 88-89 MPH fastball with an above-average curve, slider and change, should be able to make a return visit to Oldsmobile Park in Lansing in 2008.

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