Advance Scout: Red Sox, April 4-6

Friday, April 04 2008 @ 03:15 PM EDT

Contributed by: Alex Obal

Showtime.

After a tough start in New York, what better way to bounce back than by welcoming the defending champs to town for a weekend series?

Boston is 3-1, good for first in the AL East. They split two "road" games with Oakland in Japan. If not for a Brandon Moss homer off Huston Street, they probably would've been swept. (Brandon Moss is a lefty. Stay tuned for a lengthy rant on Monday about how friends don't let righty friends face Huston Street.) Then they went to the Coliseum for two actual road games, and won them both, allowing a grand total of one run. They're probably just a bit road weary after the whole deal.

Tonight's the home opener, and you have to expect the hitters to be eager to put on a show - especially the newcomers, Stewart, Eckstein and Scutaro. That eagerness might be a bad thing, 'cause the opponent tonight happens to be Tim Wakefield.

And it's not just Wakefield - it's the indoors version, which is supposed to be, like, unhittable, because the lack of natural wind supposedly helps him control his knuckleball better. Wake's career ERA outdoors is 4.42; indoors, in 274 innings, it's 3.58. His WHIP falls from 1.43 to 1.28 in climate-controlled comfort. Does that mean he's substantially better inside? Maybe, but most of those indoor games came against the Twins, Jays and Rays' offenses, and those lineups have tended to be pretty horri-awful in general since 1995, when Wakefield arrived in Boston.

OPS+
 TOR MIN TB SEA
07 96 93 103
06 109 101 89
05 95 88 101
04 87 95 91
03 107 102 95
02 97 103 89
01 96 100 88
00 102 85 85
99 105 80 92
98 104 86 83 111
97 83 93
119
96 90 97
113
95 92 98
106

The average OPS+ of these 40 dome teams is a quite horri-awful 96.2.

Wake's K/BB rises from 1.75 to 1.87 inside, which is consistent with either or both of the conditions being good and the hitters being bad. Adjusting those stats for the standard of competition might be worthwhile.

Anyway, Wakefield is still the same guy. Throws pitches. Not too hard. Mostly knuckleballs. He'll occasionally throw a mid-70s meatball and, once in a blue moon, a curve. Still a flyball pitcher. Still beats the HR/fly and BABIP benchmarks, 'cause have you ever seen anyone hit a knuckleball hard? (I mean other than Aaron Boone.) Relatively quick at-bats, obviously, 'cause who wants to face the flutterball with two strikes? Backwards splits - righties outperform lefties by 7 points of OBP and 36 points of SLG. Frank Thomas has homered six times off Wake in 54 PA; Gregg Zaun is 4-21 with two walks.

Tomorrow, Clay Buchholz returns to the scene of his only major-league loss, and he'll face the same starting pitcher in Jesse Litsch. That was the immortal Russ Adams Grand Slam Game. Buchholz is listed as the #2 prospect in Baseball Prospectus' 2008 annual and touted as being "Better than Joba" on the cover. His minor-league stats are passable, I guess. Apparently, he can dial his fastball up to 97 when he wants to - must be true because it says so here - and if you saw his no-hitter last year you are acutely aware of his nasty mid-70s curveball which makes righties and lefties alike look totally incompetent when it's working. And his changeup, which he throws often to lefties. Fangraphs says he also has a slider.

Buchholz struck out Matt Stairs three times in that game. Buck Coats may start for defensive purposes with Litsch on the mound and at least four lefties in the opposing lineup. I mean, I'd consider it. Plus Buck Coats sounds like Buchholz. How amusing.

Sunday, it's postseason hero and Cy Young runner-up Josh Beckett taking on Roy Halladay. Beckett is currently on the 15-day DL, sidelined with recurring back spasms. According to the Boston Globe, he is almost certain to make his debut this Sunday.

Beckett had the best year of his career in 2007. His defense-independent stats are the best they've ever been, and his luck went from very bad to pretty good:


 K% BB% GB% HR/fly BABIP LOB% WHIP ERA+ IP/GS
Beckett career 22.7 8.0 45.1 10.3 .296 72.4 1.23 3.74 6.1
Beckett '06 18.2 9.7 47.3 15.4 .270 69.0 1.29 5.01 6.2
Beckett '07 23.6 4.9 45.1 8.0 .316 75.2 1.14 3.27 6.7

Looks pretty dominant, huh? Voters were right to give C.C. Sabathia the Cy Young, but Beckett had a pretty good claim to being the best pitcher in the league himself. That many strikeouts, with that few walks, in this era, from a starting pitcher, doesn't happen very often. And compared to some of the best seasons by righty starters in the AL in the past five years...


 K% BB% GB% HR/fly BABIP LOB% WHIP ERA+ IP/GS
Beckett '07 23.6 4.9 47.3 8.0 .316 75.2 1.14 3.27 6.7
Halladay '03
 19.0 3.0 58.4 14.3 .294 71.0 1.07 3.25 7.4
Halladay '05
 19.5 3.3 60.9 12.4 .269 81.5 0.96 2.41 7.5

... well okay maybe he's not quite at that level yet. But if last year is an indication of where he stands as a pitcher, he's close, and he turns 28 in May. Here's to many more Doc-Beckett matchups this year. And to Doc staying healthy all year for the first time since 2003.

Beckett is still Beckett. Here's his pitch-f/x chart and a nice breakdown of his pitching style. He has the mid-90s fastball and sinker, the curve, the AJ-style 'change,' and apparently he throws a cutter occasionally. Vernon Wells is 8-25 against him with four homers, pencil him in for a second deck shot tonight; Frank Thomas is 3-17 with zero walks and 6 strikeouts. Rod Barajas is 4-7 with two doubles, a homer, a walk and no strikeouts.

Infirmary: J.D. Drew missed the Japan series and the first game in Oakland with his own back spasms. He returned Wednesday and went 1-5 against Rich Harden and friends with two strikeouts.

Kevin Youkilis played his 194th straight game at first base without committing an error on Wednesday. The gracious Oakland A's allowed him to keep the first-base bag.

Hawks at Fenway Park are very judicious in picking their targets.

Bartolo Colon's return to the bigs is on schedule - he allowed one hit in five innings in Pawtucket yesterday.

Dustin Pedroia on Terry Francona's style of play in cribbage: "He shuffles pretty fast and tries to rig the deck, so I try to slow him down. You’ve got to slow the game down. If the game speeds up on you, you’re going to stink. I’m up, probably 30 or 40 games. He’ll say he’s up, but that’s just to tell you guys that he’s good. He stinks.”

Sean Casey hasn't hit double-digit homers in three years, but he's an aggressive hitter with a good batting eye. He adds diversity to the offense.

Mike Timlin is out with an injured ring finger.

And Coco Crisp has started the last three games; Jacoby Ellsbury has had two starts, one for Crisp in the season opener, and one in Drew's place. Ellsbury hit .224/.291/.347 in spring this year; Crisp only had 12 spring at-bats. Ellsbury was 9-9 stealing bases last year. He's believed to be the first big-leaguer of Navajo descent.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2007 stats.


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