Everything's a little upside down
As a matter of fact
The wheels have stopped
(Anders needs a pinch-hitter? Here I come, to save the day.)
Anyway, I was watching a House re-run last night (Hugh Laurie is a
Living God, and has been ever since Fry and Laurie) - and what happens at the end of the episode?
Why, Dr Wilson curls up on his couch with either the 1987 or 1988 edition of
the Bill James Baseball Abstract. Cool!
On to business! First of all, let me add my enthusiastic agreement to this observation from Jeff Blair yesterday:
I can't say it enough: I can go to a Red Sox game and simply spend the
whole night watching Ramirez standing in the outfield. He is the best
show in baseball.
Me too, Jeff. In fact, I can hardly wait for his Hall of Fame induction speech. What on earth will that be like? Blair, of course, wrote that after Manny's memorable over-the-shoulder, dreadlocks-flying, back-to-home plate, running grab on the warning track of Kevin Millar's drive, after which he high-fives a fan in the front row, and then doubles Aubrey Huff off first base. Manny! Ain't nobody like him. He is absolutely my favourite player in the league, non-Jays division anyway. I would wish that there more like him, but you have to be as good as he is to get away with being like him. And there aren't very many as good as he is.
As everyone knows, no one has won a Triple Crown since Yastrzemski in 1967. Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez are the only active players who have led the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Well, them and that fellow who may or may not be allowed entry into this country. (Curiously, neither Frank Thomas nor Albert Pujols, who each have a batting title, has ever led their league in HRs or RBIs.)
It's nice that the Blue Jays have escaped the cellar, it's nicer still that the Yankees have taken up residence there. None of this means anything. The standings in May do not matter. Every year, some team that is under .500 as June approaches gets its act together and ends up in the post-season. Every damn year. Last year, it was Colorado and New York. The year before that, it was Minnesota and Oakland. The year before that, it was New York. And it was Atlanta the year before that. Anyone who writes off a season and gives up in May is simply being silly.
That doesn't mean any particular team is actually going to do it this year, but the odds are very good that at least one of them will.
I don't know if the Blue Jays have turned their season in the right direction, and neither do you. Wilner has been suggesting that the Cleveland game - the second of the double-header, with the unassisted triple play and then the two remarkable plays by Martinez and Gutierrez - was a kind of turning point. That was the team hitting bottom. He may be right. Well, if the team does go on to make something of this season, he will be right.
But it's very true that what happened in Cleveland is exactly the kind of thing a struggling team sometimes needs. They needed to have something quite ridiculous and outlandish happen to them. It actually eases the burden. This has been one very tight, squeezing-the-sawdust-out-of-the-bats baseball team. But if you are able to believe, even if only for a second, that it's really not your fault; but that the gods of the baseball universe are having a little sport with you and there's nothing you can do about it.... it eases the pressure. Instead of worrying and fretting and obsessing over your misfortunes, you actually begin to laugh at them. And then you stop trying hit three run homers when you're leading off, and just play.
Anyway, we'll see. That's why they play the games.
Looking round the majors, three things have struck me, and once I'd finished rubbing the wound, I thought I'd make a note.
1. Geovany!
Is this your NL MVP? The Cubs have the best offense in baseball, despite a mediocre performance from the Fonz and an open wound in centrefield so wide that they've actually summoned the Ghost of Jim Edmonds to see if he can still play a little ball despite the fork sticking out his back. But Geovany! is the man. So far, I think he and Berkman and Chipper have been the best players in the league. And, by the way, does the NL have some exciting young catchers or what? Everybody knows about Brian McCann and Russell Martin already, but there's nothing too wrong with Chris Snyder and Yadier Molina. And who the hell is Ryan Doumit, and why is he hitting .350, anyway?
2. Weren't You Guys Supposed to Be Contenders?
At the bottom of the three AL divisions are the New York Yankees, the Detroit Tigers, and the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees won 94 games last year and were involved in the post-season. Detroit won 88 games and thought they'd improved themselves enormously this winter by adding Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis without giving up anyone from their lineup. Seattle also won 88 games, and they went and added one of the better left-handed starters in the AL, Erik Bedard, in exchange for prospects.
The National League doesn't offer quite the same symmetrical and rewarding tour of last place. But tucked away at the bottom of the NL West sit the two teams with the worst records in the senior circuit - the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres. That's right, the two teams that engaged in that thrilling playoff last fall to see which one would go on to the post-season.
Five teams, but one question. What the hell happened?
The Yankees simply forgot the rules. Several of them, in fact. First, there is the rule that says that Old Players Are Going to Get Hurt. The Yankees expected to have a mighty offense this season - but Alex Rodriguez (age 32) has been on the DL and Jorge Posada (a 36 year old catcher) is going to be out for an extended period of time. This sort of thing should not be surprising. The Yankees also forgot the rule about young pitchers, which simply states that Young Pitchers Will Break Your Heart. They may lead you to glory and success, but they will almost certainly break your heart once or twice before they do that for you. Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy have combined to go 0-7 with an ERA of 8.70, which brings us to the third rule. This the Rule of Free Agent Acquisition. and it says: if the guy you're considering is going to the Hall of Fame (and is still in his prime) or is well on his way to at least making a case for being a Hall of Famer - well, you get him. You don't ask questions, you don't worry about the price. You get him. The Yankees forgot that rule. They decided the price Minnesota was asking for Johan Santana was too high. (Technically, Santana wasn't a free agent - but as a practical matter, that was a Free Agent Bidding that went on this past winter.)
The problem in Detroit is really simple. It is admirably clear and easy for all to see. The pitching has plummetted off some high cliff, and left a squirming, bloody ruin on the rocks below. Three starters each have ERAs north of 6.00 - Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, and Justin Verlander - and have combined to go 4-14 while they're at it. Justin Verlander? How did that happen?
What's happened in Seattle is quite different. Pythagoras took a quick look at the 2007 Mariners and said "No, sir. This isn't that good a team. Not really. They just got a little lucky in the close games. Unless they make some major upgrades, the earth will level out and they'll be playing .500 ball." What actually happened was the Mariners did make a major upgrade - Erik Bedard - but the earth didn't just level out. It tilted the other way. The Mariners have the worst record in one-run games of any team in the American League. They're not really this bad, in all likelihood. Mind you, they're not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they weren't a good team last year either.
The poor Padres have been suffering from the same thing as Detroit. The Padres pitching ranks middle of the pack - but seeing as how they play their home games in the greatest pitcher's park in the history of the game, that tells us its been nowhere near good enough. Greg Maddux has been solid, Jake Peavy has been his usual outstanding self. Everyone else has been an utter disaster. And it may be just about time for Heath Bell to take over from Trevor Hoffmann. Plus the Padres offense really is pretty terrible - the park is killing them, of course, but they don't have much hitting at all.
As for the Rockies, the team that plays in the greatest hitter's park in the history of the game (it's pretty cool that Petco and Coors Field are both around at the same time, and in the same division) - they've just generally gone into the crapper altogether. Young players, rather building on last year's success and taking another step forward, have instead taken six or seven steps backwards. Hello, Jeff Francis! Hello, Manny Corpas! Hello, Troy Tulowitzki (who then went and suffered a major injury.) Tulowitzki has been so indescribably bad - I mean, John McDonald would have been a huge offensive upgrade - that his being out of the lineup has probably helped the team. For one thing, it seems to have given Clint Barmes a chance to reboot his career. I can
see Barmes possibly sliding over to second base and filling what has become a huge
black hole in the lineup once Tulowitzki returns. Anyway, chances are, most of these guys will get pointed in the right direction again.
3. The Weirdness of the Atlanta Braves
I pay attention to the Braves. Liam's a fan, I wrote this year's season preview, and there's usually something going on that's worth watching. The Braves have been Pythagorean underachievers each of the last two seasons, which has never happened to Bobby Cox in his long, long managerial career. So far this year, they're well on their way to making it three years in a row, which would be shocking. But that's not what got my attention. Nor is it the fact that they have the best pitching in the National League. That is one very big surprise, by the way. We all thought the Braves would score runs, and indeed they have - only three teams in the majors are scoring more runs, and one of those teams uses a DH. (Not that David Ortiz has hit all that that much better than the Atlanta pitchers this season.)
There were, however, many serious concerns about Atlanta's pitching. They were talking about having Mike Hampton in the rotation, for God's sake. They were also planning to go Bravely forward with two 40 year olds in their starting rotation, a strategy that hasn't led to anyone winning a championship since... well, 2007 to be honest. But still. Anyway, the pitching has been just fine, even with the injuries to their two best relievers (Soriano and Moylan) and to their best starter (Smoltz - you do take the Hampton injury for granted, right?) That sort of thing never did faze Bobby Cox, anyway.
But it sure is puzzling that the league's best pitching and the league's third best offense would place them in fourth place in their own division, sputtering along at .500. How has it happened? Let me tell you. The Braves have managed to go an incredible 1-11 in one run games. Which is beyond weird. That's so hard to do that it's obviously a complete fluke. It does help explain the other very odd thing in the records - an enormous home-road split. The Braves are 14-4 at Turner Field - it's the best home record in baseball. But on the road, they've gone 6-16, and yes - that is the worst road record in baseball. Anyway, very strange goings-on in the Land of the Braves this year. It should be very interesting to pay attention to this team.
One Last Thing...
I've been working on a study of how the various AL managers ran their bullpens in 2007 - I've been looking at each team's various Bullpen Configurations (each team goes through anywhere from ten to twenty different bullpen lineups over the course of the season), and the manager's patterns in using his guys. Did he carry six relievers? Seven? Eight? Does the manager use the same pitchers day after day after day and while the others sit around and do nothing? Does he keep everyone in a regular mix? Or will a pitcher do nothing for seven or eight days, and then pitch three days in a row? And especially, how often does the bottom guy in the pecking order get into a game? (All of this was prompted by a passing comment by VBF wondering how often teams actually used the seventh guy in the pen.)
All of this will be coming to a Batter's Box near you quite soon. In the meantime, I will give you a tentative, and quite subjective, assessment of the AL managers work in this regard in 2007. Yes, yes, the top guy is a surprise to me, too (probably not as big a
surprise as I'm sure he is to some of you.) I was indeed expecting him to do
OK, maybe even top five - but after looking at the job everyone did last year I simply don' t see any other way I can go. And while I honestly had no idea that I'd be coming to this conclusion... well, now that I have, I surely can't resist tossing it out there. As a kind of Teaser, a Preview!
The Best (figure in parentheses is where the team's bullpen ranked in ERA in 2007)
1. John Gibbons, Tor. (2nd)
2. Eric Wedge, Cle. (4th)
3. Terry Francona, Bos. (1st)
Their Work Looks OK to ME
4. Ron Gardenhire, Min. (5th)
5. Ron Washington, Tex.(3rd)
6. Buddy Bell, KC (6th)
7. Mike Scioscia, LAA (8th)
8. Mike Hargrove/John McLaren, Sea (7th)
9. Bob Geren, Oak. (9th)
10. Jim Leyland, Det. (11th)
I Have Some Questions
11. Ozzie Guillen, Chi. (12th)
12. Joe Torre, NYY (10th)
13. Joe Maddon, TB (14th)
Absolutely Out of His Goddam Mind
14. Sam Perlozzo/Dave Trombley, Bal. (13th)
I was actually expecting Scioscia, Gardenhire, and Wedge to be my top three. That may be partially because I'd prefer a six man pen myself. Scioscia and Gardenhire go that way more often than anyone else, although not exclusively.
I suppose I was looking at three things in coming to these conclusions: 1) the results; 2) how the manager went about the care and feeding of the arms out there; 3) what the manager had to cope with. Gibbons does well on all three. His bullpen had the second best ERA of any AL bullpen, which speaks for itself. Scott Downs was the only man who pitched three days in a row more than once (four times); Accardo, Janssen, and Kennedy each pitched on three consecutive days once. That's quite a low figure by the standards of the 2007 AL. Wait til you see what Torre and Maddon were doing. And Gibbons had some things to cope with. Of the seven men who began the year in his pen, three were gone for good by the beginning of May. His closer went to the DL for the rest of the year, and two other guys went into the rotation. After a false start with Jason Frasor, he quickly identified which relievers could do which jobs for him, and he got them to do it. The more I look at it, the more impressed I am.
Anyway, I'll get all this together quite soon, and share all my findings and reasonings. Its still very possible that by then the sequence may have changed. Almost everybody could eventually move up or down a peg or two or even three (but no more!)
But I will tell you this: no power on earth will change my mind about the last place ranking. Nothing. No way, no how.
And it's worth reflecting that the man who may be the most famous and celebrated and highest-paid pitching coach of all time was a-sitting and a-rocking right at the manager's side for these six months of madness.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20080515214632666