April was not a kind month to the Jays affiliates. The New Hampshire Fisher Cats are the only affiliate with a winning record and several of the Jays top prospects are off to slow starts. Because the minor leagues start their season later than the major leagues most affiliates have played around twenty games, some of those in very cold weather, so it is not time to panic, yet. But May is an important month to set the tone for those June promotions. Marc Hulet and I look at April in the minor leagues. All numbers are from April.
Las Vegas 51's
Vegas have a 6-14 record through 20 games which is probably a little unlucky as they are close to middle of the pack in hitting and pitching. The hitting has been anchored by two veterans, Randy Ruiz and Brett Harper both of whom have OPS over .900. If we leave out Russ Adams and Joe Inglett who have been injured, the other "regulars" have OPS in the mid 700's down to the high 500's. Despite its reputation as a big offensive league OPS is not that high, the 51's have a team OPS of .721 which is middle of the pack. Veteran AAA players like Howie Clark and Jason Lane have not started to hit yet.
The 51's have used eight different starting pitchers over their twenty games, Brad Mills, Brett Cecil and Wade Miller have made four starts each. None of those three have been outstanding and the starting pitcher with the lowest WHIP is Brian Burres, go figure.
Moving Up
None of the major prospects have had good starts to the season. Brad Mills and Brett Cecil seem to be settling down after tough starts and Cecil is indeed moving up to the Jays. The pitcher with the best numbers on the team is Jonah Bayliss who has a 0.00 ERA and has only allowed seven hits in 15 innings. He has 19k's. Bayliss joined the Jays in the middle of 2008 and had a 3.40 ERA in Syracuse and is still only 28 years old. If Bayliss is able to keep this up he could get a look later this season.
Heading Down
JP Arencibia is off to a slow start hitting .224 in April with few walks and limited power. His OPS is .615.
Scott Campbell is hitting .236 with an OBP of 278 and no power so his OPS in April is 590.
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New Hampshire Fisher Cats
The New Hampshire Fisher Cats club is having a nice start to the 2009 season, after a disappointing 2008. The team ended April at the top of their division. A good sign for the Jays organization is that the club has featured some very nice pitching performances - especially amongst the starters. The hitting has been OK too, although no player has really stepped up their game. Most of the top hitters have been prospects you should already be familiar with by now.
Moving Up
The bright spot of the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats' season in April was starting pitching. Former MLB hurler Fabio Castro, 24, was second in ERA with a 0.83 mark before a recent promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. The southpaw allowed just 15 hits and three walks in 21.2 innings of work, and he struck out 24 batters.
Groundball specialist Reidier Gonzalez, 23, was eighth in league ERA (1.39) and first in innings pitched (32.1), but fourth in hits allowed (28). The right-hander walked seven batters and struck out 20. Left-hander - and another groundball pitcher - Marc Rzepczynski, 23, led the league in walks (17) and strikeouts (35), 11 more than the three players tied for second place, which includes Castro. Luis Perez and Gonzalez are also among the Top 10 in Ks.
Perez had a terribly slow start to the 2008 season in Lansing but had a nice April in New Hampshire in 2009 despite skipping over Dunedin. He allowed just 14 hits - but 10 walks - in 22 innings. He struck out 20 batters and got a healthy number of groundball outs. Randy Boone, who also skipped over Dunedin, started the year on the disabled list but came back strong to post a 2.41 ERA with 16 hits allowed in 18.2 innings of work. He walked six and struck out just eight batters in April.
One of the big offensive questions entering 2009 was whether or not Brian Dopirak's 2008 prospect resurgence was for real or a figment of age (he turned 25 in the off-season) and the fact he was repeating High-A ball for the third time. At Double-A in '09, Dopirak is tied for third in hits and shares fourth place with teammate Adam Calderone for home runs. The first baseman is also hitting .313 despite striking out 20 times in 80 at-bats.
Catcher Brian Jeroloman, 24, sent back to Double-A for a second season because of J.P. Arencibia's presence in Triple-A, had a weird month of April. Known for his weak bat but patient approach, he hit .299/.382/.418 in April with 'just' nine walks and 18 strikeouts. He added five doubles and a homer. Jeroloman's higher average has made up for the lack of walks and his line is not all that different from last season (average aside): .270/.396/.416.
Second baseman Brad Emaus had a sizzling start to 2009 but has cooled by hitting just .225 in his last 10 games in April. Overall, he hit .284/.363/.432 with seven doubles, eight walks and just nine strikeouts in 81 at-bats. The right-handed hitter is batting just .200 (3-for-15) against southpaws.
Heading Down
David Cooper, the club's first-round pick from 2008, is perhaps the biggest offensive disappointment to this point. His line is OK at .243/.321/.338 - especially if you consider this is his first full season and he's beginning in Double-A. He has just five extra base hits (one homer) and seven RBI in 21 games. He's struck out 18 times in 74 at-bats. The left-handed hitter is batting just .236 in 55 at-bats against right-handed pitchers and .182 with runners in scoring position.
Outfielder Sean Shoffit impressed Jays officials with his performance in the spring, but he has yet to bring that game to Double-A. He hit just .185/.279/.259 with 22 Ks in 54 at-bats. Veteran Triple-A outfielder Nick Gorneault was asked to help out in Double-A this year but he forgot to bring his bat. He hit just .227/.311/.409 with one homer in 20 games.
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Dunedin Blue Jays
Dunedin ended April with a 8-12 record which is good despite weak hitting and poor starting pitching. The Jays are middle of the pack in hitting with a 650 OPS, the league leader is only at 717. But their pitching is last in the league thanks to three starting pitchers with ERA's over 8.50. The Jays April can be summed up by saying poor hitting by the infield and starting pitching had held them back but the bright spots have been outstanding bullpen pitching and outfield hitting.
Moving Up
The Dunedin bullpen has been outstanding.
Tim Collins 14 IP 0.57 WHIP 26k
Danny Farquhar 9 IP 1.33 WHIP 10k
Robert Bell 12 IP 0.92 WHIP 22k
Trystan Magnuson 8.2 IP 1.04 WHIP 5k (last 4 appearances only)
Cody Crowell 3.2 IP 1.09 WHIP 6k (last 4 appearances only)
Crowell and Magnuson had trouble initially so I cheated a bit and included their recent numbers but that is an excellent bullpen. Collins and Bell in particular are racking up the strikeouts. The FSL plays a pretty concentrated schedule with the Jays facing local teams such as Tampa and Clearwater a lot. The bullpen pitchers will have to show through June that they can keep delivering the results.
The outfield has in general been hitting well. Moises Sierra has had an excellent April, he hit .313 with ten extra-base hits for a .537 slugging and an OPS of 932. Eric Thames also has started well, he is hitting .309 with a 856 OPS and Darren Mastroianni has an 846 OPS in April. Sierra of course has the best outfield arm in the system and is still only twenty years old.
Heading Down
The Jays 2007 high school kids have hit the wall for now. Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens and John Tolisano each hit less than .200 in April although Tolisano and Ahrens missed time with injuries. Jackson has struck out 33 times in 71 at-bats. Obviously high A is a struggle for these guys now but at their age it wouldn't be unusual for them to repeat a year. Hopefully they will get better as the year progresses to set them up for a stronger 2010.
Adam Loewen has had a slow start to his hitting career, he hit .227 in April. He is another player who has to get used to the competition level as a hitter.
Andrew Liebel is probably neither up nor down but he deserves mention as the Jays top pitching pick in 2008. Liebel has had mixed results so far, his ERA in April was 5.63 although his WHIP is 1.29. His problem is too many big innings. If he can work though that the underlying skills appear to be alright at this point.
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Lansing Lugnuts
Blue Jays officials went on record saying that they knew they were being aggressive with a number of their young, raw prospects but they likely did not expect so many of them to struggle this much. The Lansing club finished April at the bottom of the division and began May by losing both games of a double-header. A few prospects could be in line for a demotion to Auburn when the short-season leagues open in June - and after the club has a chance to replenish the pitching depth with the amateur draft on June 9-10.
Moving Up
Outfielder Johermyn Chavez led the club with four homers (tied for first in the league), 14 RBI, 15 runs scored and a .349 average in April. But the 20 year old is repeating Lansing for the second straight season and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is still troubling at 4-to-1. Chavez also had a pretty quick start to the 2008 season and hit three of his seven homers in the month of April a year ago. With another solid month, he could be challenged with a promotion to Dunedin.
First baseman Michael McDade is another returnee to Lansing after a rough 2008 season saw him get demoted to Auburn for the second half of the year. He was third in hitting for the Lugnuts in April, but the average was just at .268. He did, though, lead the club with seven walks (along with 14 Ks).
Outfielder Brian Van Kirk, a little old for the Midwest League, was second on the club in April with a .300 average but his effectiveness was limited by his lack of patience at the plate, as he took just three walks. Third baseman Mark Sobolewski began the year on the DL, so he appeared in just seven games. In that short time, he hit .261 and struck out just twice in 23 at-bats.
Left-handed pitchers Charles Huggins and John Anderson were the best pitchers on the staff in April. Huggins, a relatively soft tosser, allowed just 12 hits and three walks in 20.2 innings. He also had 24 Ks. Anderson has been hit a little more with 19 hits allowed in 18.1 innings of work. He also allowed six walks and struck out 14 batters.
Henderson Alvarez, the youngster starter at 19, allowed 25 hits in 19 innings but he showed very good control and walked just one batter in the month. Pitchers that around the strike zone a lot in the low minors can struggle a bit because of all the free swingers combined with poor defense and miserable field conditions. Reliever Yorman Mayora had a high-ish ERA at 4.09 and allowed 11 hits in 11 innings but he struck out 14 batters and walked four.
Heading Down
There are a few players in Lansing who do not really fit into the 'moving up' or 'moving down' category due to their age and lack of experience. You can toss catchers Jonathan Talley, A.J. Jimenez, infielders Balbino Fuenmayor, Tyler Pastornicky as well as outfielders Kenny Wilson and Markus Brisker into the middle category. With that said, none of the players has really shown much to get excited about yet.
Fuenmayor did not take a walk in 46 at-bats. Jimenez did not take one in 29 at-bats. Wilson struck out 13 times in 16 games, did not have an extra base hit and was caught stealing three times in eight attempts. of the group, Pastornicky and Talley look to have the best approach at the plate right now so they could heat up a little quicker than the others. All the players in Lansing need to step things up in May.
Pitchers Jonas Cuotto and Josh Wells had perhaps the most disappointing months amongst the hurlers. Cuotto allowed 21 hits in 14 innings, but he like Alvarez is around the strike zone a lot. He allowed just three walks and struck out 12. Wells posted a 9.26 ERA in three starts and allowed 17 hits in 11.2 innings. He walked seven and struck out eight batters.
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May has started better for the affiliates. The warmer weather might heat up the bats and the Jays recently acted to beef up their bullpens with additions in New Hampshire and Dunedin. That should help nail down a few more wins and build the confidence of the teams and the players.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20090501135512226