Remember when I asked you to predict how every team in the bigs would perform this year? Let's see how people are doing.
Methodology: My method to project teams' final records is pretty simple: I just assume they'll play at their current pythagorean winning percentage for the rest of the season, and add that to their current record. So, for example, the Jays are currently 22-12, with 204 runs scored and 154 allowed. This gives a pythag win % of .637, so if the Jays play at that clip for the rest of the year, they'll go 82-46. Add that to their current record, and the system says the good guys will go 104-58. Anyway, in this particular case it doesn't seem too realistic, but it's a decent predictor, moreso as the season progresses.
Surprises: well, we all know about the Jays' hot start - they're projected to win more games than anyone else in the AL, and nobody's particularly close - Kansas City is next with a projected total of 96 wins. Only the Dodgers (109) are projected to win more than the Jays.
The AL Central is pretty much opposite to what analysts predicted at the beginning of the season: Minnesota and Cleveland were the favourites in the early-going, and they're projected to win 71 and 66 games, respectively. On the flip side, Kansas City (96) and Detroit (90) are leading the way.
With a rash of injuries befalling the Angels, and slow starts from the big name additions to the A's roster, Texas has taken advantage of a wide open division and are currently projected to win 88 games.
In case you're interested, here are the win projections for every team in the bigs, completely unedited and unformatted:
EAST
Toronto 103.54
Boston 93.19
NY Yankees 72.99
Tampa Bay 85.48
Baltimore 67.72
CENTRAL
Detroit 89.93
Kansas City 96.11
Minnesota 70.99
Chicago Sox 72.09
Cleveland 66.00
WEST
Texas 88.35
LA Angels 81.11
Seattle 72.68
Oakland 72.23
EAST
NY Mets 94.31
Florida 79.40
Philadelphia 84.82
Atlanta 79.04
Washington 64.13
CENTRAL
St. Louis 95.99
Milwaukee 91.28
Cincinnati 79.59
Chicago Cubs 82.94
Houston 72.47
Pittsburgh 73.12
WEST
LA Dodgers 109.37
San Francisco 75.13
San Diego 60.79
Arizona 67.16
Colorado 79.37
And here are the standings of our little contest. The number indicates your average win deviation - i.e. if the Jays are projected to win 104 games, and you predicted 85, that would be a deviation of 19. Standings are listed by each contestant's average deviation across all teams.
Standings
1 Mudie 8.45
2 mathesond 8.46
3 92-93 8.47
4 John Northey 8.49
5 VBF 8.60
6 nathanelias 8.70
7 seeyou 8.78
8 AWeb 8.93
9 Mike Green 8.98
10 ANationalAcrobat 9.05
11 Brian 9.15
12 Nick Holmes 9.20
13 Dave Rutt 9.31
14 brent 9.33
15 parrot11 9.61
16 esteBENloaiza 10.09
17 PECOTA 10.11
18 electric carrot 10.15
19 Ron 11.61
Good to see most Bauxites out-performing PECOTA! But, once again, it's meaninglessly early, and these standings will change pretty much daily for the next little while.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20090503142738733