Chasing The Big Numbers (2010 Version) - HRs
Wednesday, January 27 2010 @ 05:34 PM EST
Contributed by: Magpie
Chicks dig the long ball. That's always been good enough for me.
Here's part two of the update.
This list has seen some changes since the last installment. Back in 2006, the Top 25 went all the way down to Dave Winfield, with his 465 homers. The cut-off point at this particular moment in history, by happy coincidence, is 500 homers.
Best Number of
HRs Season 30 HR Seasons
1. Bonds 762 73 14
2. Aaron 755 47 15
3. Ruth 714 60 13
4. Mays 660 52 11
5. Griffey 630 56 9
6. Sosa 609 66 11
7. F.Robinson 586 49 11
8. Rodriguez 583 57 13
9. McGwire 583 70 11
10. Killebrew 573 49 10
11. Palmeiro 569 47 10
12. Thome 564 52 12
13. R.Jackson 563 47 7
14. Schmidt 548 48 13
15. M.Ramirez 546 45 12
16. Mantle 536 54 9
17. Foxx 534 58 12
18. Thomas 521 43 9
19. McCovey 521 45 7
20. T.Williams 521 43 8
21. Mathews 512 47 10
22. Banks 512 47 7
23. Ott 511 42 8
24. Sheffield 509 43 8
25. Murray 504 33 5
The bottom five from four years ago - Lou Gehrig, Fred McGriff, Willie Stargell, Stan Musial, and Dave Winfield - have fallen off the list, overtaken by one retired player (Frank Thomas) and four men still working on their career totals: Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, and Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez has moved all the way up into the Top 10. Barry Bonds, still active in 2006, moved from third place to the top of the board and Ken Griffey has moved from 12th place up to 5th.
I got interested in a couple of side issues along the way. One has been home runs hit by position, in view of the curse that seems to hang over slugging third basemen (more on that anon.) The other issue was minor league games played, which flowed out of looking at the career of Carlos Delgado, who played an absurd number of minor league games. Anyway, of the current Top 25, Willie McCovey played the most minor league games (632). He's followed by Eddie Murray (460), Sammy Sosa (449), and Jim Thome (414). At the other extreme, Mel Ott and Ernie Banks played no - zero - minor league games at all. Ott was on the bench in the major leagues when he was 17 years old, watching and listening to Mr McGraw. Erne Banks went into the Cubs lineup at age 23 straight from the Kansas City Monarchs, where he'd been playing since he was 19. Babe Ruth played in just 35 minor league games, but he was a pitcher - he spent the entire season in the minors. Two college stars from Arizona State played very little in the minors: Reggie Jackson (102) and Barry Bonds (115). Willie Mays turned pro at age 16 and played three seasons in the Negro American League, before his 116 minor league games. And Ken Griffey played just 130 minor league games between high school and the majors.
The candidates of Today are!
1. Albert Pujols (Age-29; Career Best-47; 30 HR seasons-9) - As great as Pujols has been, he hasn't quite been able to match Rodriguez. A-Rod had a small but real head-start, of course - Rodrguez had 41 HRs through age 20, but even during the ages 21-29 period, which covers all of Pujols' career he's still being outpaced, as Rodriguez hit 388 homers through that period to Albert's 366. He looks pretty good compared to pretty well everyone else in the history of the game, of course - the only men who had hit more home runs than Pujols through age 29 are Rodriguez and four men who hit far more homers in their 20s than they were able to hit in their 30s: Ken Griffey, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, and Ed Mathews. Albert is comfortably ahead of everyone else in the Top 25: Aaron, Ott, F.Robinson, Killebrew, Ruth, Mays, Sosa, Banks, Bonds, Murray, Thomas, R.Jackson, Schmidt, McCovey, McGwire, T.Williams, Palmeiro. He's also ahead of the other active players in the top 25: Ramirez, Thome, and Sheffield. At the moment, there is no reason not to think Pujols can become the fifth (!) man ever to hit 700 home runs. I would expect him to finish up roughly even with Babe Ruth.
2. Adam Dunn (Age-29; Career Best-46; 30 HR seasons-6) - Dunn is such an unusual player that it's difficult to see what kind of player he'll be in his 30s. He's a guy who strikes out a ton and hits for a low average but is an outstanding offensive player because of his walks and homers. There are a lot of guys somewhat in the Dunn model, but none that are so extreme. None of the men in the Top 25 resemble him very much at all. You might think Jim Thome, but Thome is a .277 hitter, which is much, much better than Dunn, whose career BAVG of .249 is significantly lower than any of the players he's trying to catch. Reggie Jackson and Mark McGwire are a little similar, but even Jackson and McGwire both ended up with BAVGs in the .260s. Besides, Jackson spent almost all of his career working in the best pitcher's parks in the AL (Oakland, New York, Anaheim) - if he had spent his career in decent hitter's parks, he would likely have hit at least .270 in his career. The shape of McGwire's career isn't really relevant to anything, is it? I think McGwire would have ended up with about 425 homers were it not for the help he received during his age 31-35 seasons. Probably the best comp for Dunn would be Harmon Killebrew, who hit only .256 over his career, but was a good enough hitter to sock 573 home runs. Dunn is ahead of Killebrew's pace, but Killebrew got started quite a bit later, not playing regularly until he was 23. And Killebrew was simply a much, much better player than Dunn. Killebrew outhomered Dunn 286-271 during their age 23-29 seasons, despite the fact that Killebrew was doing all this work during one of the greatest pitcher's eras of all time, and despite losing significant chunks of two seasons to injury. Furthermore, Killebrew actually had some (not much!) defensive value, which made him a more useful player - while he was just as bad an outfielder as Dunn, the Killer played a passable third base and a competent first base. Killebrew's last good year came at age 36 (OPS+ of 138) - but by then his BAVG was 25 points below his career mark and he was hitting barely half the number of homers he hit in his prime. When those things happen to Dunn - and they will, of course - he simply won't be good enough to stay in the lineup. So while he should come close, I don't think he's actually going to make it to 500 home runs. Besides Killebrew, Dunn is ahead of Ruth, Mays, Sosa, Banks, Bonds, Murray, Thomas, R.Jackson, Schmidt, McCovey, McGwire, T.Williams, Palmeiro. Also ahead of M.Ramirez, Thome, Sheffield.
3. Miguel Cabrera (Age-26; Career Best-37; 30 HR seasons-5) - On the one hand, 37 HRs isn't a particularly impressive season high. On the other hand, he did lead the league. He got started very young, and he's so talented that if his career follows anything like a normal curve he should accumulate at least 500 homers with ease. But there are the lifestyle questions, no? It's true that some of the greatest hitters who ever lived - Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Paul Waner, Albert Belle - were also well known Drinking Men. But alcohol, of course, is not a performance-enhancing drug - it is the exact opposite, a destroyer. Cabrera was a terrific player even on the sauce, but his late-season meltdown resulted in him spending most of this off-season in a treatment program for alcoholics. This is what we call progress and all we can do is wish him success. He's making excellent progress moving up the homer list - he's ahead of Mays, Killebrew, Murray, Ruth, R.Jackson, McGwire, Bonds, Thomas, Banks, Sosa, Schmidt, T.Williams, McCovey, Palmeiro. He's also ahead of the pace set by some of the active guys - M.Ramirez, Thome, Sheffield
4. Prince Fielder (Age-26; Career Best-50; 30 HR seasons-3) - He's listed as 6'0 and 260 pounds - that's right, three inches shorter and 20 pounds heavier than his dad. (Cecil weighed just 240 pounds? Not a chance...) Prince is a better hitter, and a better athlete, than Cecil - but when he's 33, he'll probably be pushing 300 pounds. Won't he? I just can't see him lasting much longer than his father. He's doing great for now - he's ahead of Mays, Murray, R.Jackson, Killebrew, T.Williams, Bonds, McGwire, McCovey, Thomas, Ruth, Sosa, Schmidt, Banks, Palmeiro. Also ahead of M.Ramirez, Sheffield, Thome
5. Ryan Zimmerman (Age-24; Career Best-33; 30 HR seasons-1) - He started very young, and he's very, very good. He's probably going to have bigger power years, and in ten years his bat should still be good enough if he needs to move across the diamond. His position is a problem - very few slugging third baseman have posted really impressive lifetime numbers. It's an important defensive position and it seems to be hard on guys - the ones who play it well enough to stay there forever do not tend to be elite sluggers That group consists of just two men. Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews are the only career third basemen to clear 500 homers. The man with the third most home runs while playing 3b is Graig Nettles, who hit 368 (of his total 390) while manning the hot corner. Chipper Jones and Darrel Evans have both made it past 400 career homers, but Jones spent a couple of years in the outfield and Evans spent half his career at 1b or DH (he hit just 203 of his 414 HRs as a third baseman.), The true career third basemen - Nettles, Matt Williams, Gary Gaetti, Ron Santo - finished in the 340-390 range. We'll have to see which way Zimmerman goes. He's ahead of Bonds, McGwire, Killebrew, Sosa, Banks, McCovey, Thomas, Schmidt, Ruth, Palmeiro. Also ahead of M.Ramirez, Sheffield, Thome
6. Andruw Jones (Age-32; Career Best-51; 30 HR seasons-7) - Just two years ago, Jones had to be taken seriously as a candidate to surpass 600 career homers. Needless to say, that seems extremely unlikely now. He was just 21 years old when he had his first 30+ homer season, and he followed that up with four more seasons in the 30-39 range, plus single years that topped 40 and 50 homers. All this while playing a key defensive position about as well as it can be played. What on earth happened? Who knows - but I will say that Andruw's career path would make a lot more sense if he were three or four years older than his listed age - it wouldn't even be particularly unusual. His early career momentum still has him ahead of Bonds, Banks, McCovey, Schmidt, Thomas, R.Jackson, Murray, McGwire, T.Williams, Palmeiro. And he's also ahead of Thome and Sheffield.
7. Vladimir Guerrero (Age-33; Career Best-44; 30 HR seasons-8) - Prior to 2009, Vlad actually had a pretty good history of staying in the lineup - he'd been able to play at least 140 games every year since coming up to stay with the exception of 2003, the final year in Montreal. Last year was disturbing, however - he had a lot of different injuries, which somehow seems more troublesome than one big one. His production fell off significantly when he was in the lineup, which is also worrisome. But he's so good that if he can fight off a total system breakdown he should cruise past 500 homers, at least. I just don't want to count on it - he's still a few years away. As it stands, Guerreo is ahead of Schmidt, M cGwire, Banks, McCovey, R.Jackson, Murray, Thomas, T.Williams, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield.
For no real good reason, I feel like comparing Vlad to Roberto Clemente. They have some superficial things in common - Latino right fielders with celebrated throwing arms who managed to succeed as hitters despite a well known tendency to swing at just about anything. Guerreo's a .321 lifetime hitter, and Clemente wound up hitting .317 despite playing the heart of his career in the second deadball era. Some of the differences: Guerrero actually has some plate discipline - not a lot, but more than Clemente did. Still, not a lot - while Vlad has generally always drawn a decent number of walks, bear in mind that more than a third of them were intentional. But he's not swinging at bad balls because he's stupid or selfish - it's just that the balls that Vlad can hit, and hit hard, aren't necessarily in the strike zone. That ball one inch away from his shoetop? No, it's not a strike but it's still in one of Vlad's power zones. I think it comes from all the cricket he played growing up in the Dominican. He can hit those pitches. So could Clemente, so could Yogi Berra. Guerrero's clearly been a greater offensive force than Clemente because he's hit for much more power. Roberto, obviously, has a big edge defensively. Vlad's arm was as impressive to watch as anyone since Clemente, but his accuracy always came and went and he was always error-prone. As a defensive player, Guerrero always reminded me more of Ellis Valentine than anyone else. On the other hand as a defender Clemente combined the best features of Jesse Barfield, Ichiro Suzuki, and Willie Mays. It's hard to imagine how anyone could play the position better.
8. David Wright (Age-26; Career Best-33; 30 HR seasons-2) - Still very young, and certainly a very fine player. One assumes that 2009 was an Evil Fluke and his power will bounce back. But - he's a third baseman, which is not good news, and he plays in a tough home run park. There's a chance, of course, that neither of those things will be true in five years. But I think his defense is impressive enough that he'll stay at third, and I don't expect to see him changing teams either. I mean, he's already in New York. New York teams let you go when they're done with you, right? So I don't see that the things that are working against him - his position and his home park - changing anytime soon. And as good as he is, he ain't Mike Schmidt. He's ahead of Banks, Sosa, Schmidt, T.Williams, McCovey, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Thome, Sheffield
9. Mark Teixeira (Age-29; Career Best-41; 30 HR seasons-6) - His career got started a little late. You can't blame his team - he was drafted out of college at age 21 and played just one year (only 86 games) in the minors as a 22 year old. He had played just 48 games of AA ball when the Rangers made him an everday player. But 23 is still a little late to get started. He's a helluva player though, and while for now he's only Ahead of Schmidt, McCovey, McGwire, T.Williams, Palmeiro he's good enough to catch some guys from behind. And he's also ahead of Thome, Sheffield.
10. Carlos Delgado (Age-37; Career Best-44; 30 HR seasons-11) - Got started even later than Teixeira, but in this case it was the team's fault. The Blue Jays were still thinking of Delgado as a catcher when he was 23 years old, and this meant that his path to the majors was blocked by the immortal Pat Borders (a World Series MVP, come on!) Because his defense behind the plate needed work, the Blue Jays moved him very slowly through the system. Delgado ended up playing 690 minor league games. Which is a lot. It's more minor league games than were played by any of the 29 men ahead of him on the all-time list - far, far more in most cases. (Willie McCovey, who played 632 minor league games) is the only other man in the Top 30 to even play 450 minor league games. Delgado also played more minor league games than any of the 34 active players being considered here as candidates. Yes, he played more games in the minors than Carlos Pena, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Derrick Lee. Despite this, heading into 2009, Delgado looked like an easy bet to sail past 500 and end up somewhere near 575 or so. All that is in doubt now, as it appears that his hip is going to limit him to DH duty, and there simply aren't that many jobs available. Jim Thome himself has just signed on as a bench player - Delgado will likely have to do likewise and carve out future playing time with his bat. The bat's probably still potent enough to do that very thing, though, and he's still ahead of McCovey, Thomas, Murray, T.Williams. Also ahead of Sheffield
11. Ryan Braun (Age-25; Career Best-37; 30 HR seasons-3) - Braun and Hanley Ramirez are effectively the same age (Braun is one monthi older) and each has 103 HRs. They're both outstanding young hitters - Ramirez has .316 career average, Braun has hit .308 so far. But Braun is more likely to post better career homer numbers. He obviously has more power - he's hit his homers in considerably fewer games and plate appearances. And now that the Brewers have bowed to the inevitable and moved him to a corner outfield spot, he won't be carrying the defensive burdens that Ramirez will face. Ahead of Sosa, Schmidt, Banks, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield and Thome.
12. Hanley Ramirez (Age-25; Career Best-33; 30 HR seasons-1) - There are only two shortstops among the Top 30 home run hitters (hey, there are no second basemen, and no catchers, either.) One of them, the man who has hit more homers as a shortstop than any player in history (Alex Rodriguez, who else) has been playing third base for the last five years and will undoubtedly finish his career with more homers as a third baseman than as a shortstop. The other man, Ernie Banks, actually played more games at first base than at short (although he hit significantly more homers - 277 to 210 - when he was a shortstop.) Ramirez is quite a player, but Rodriguez and Banks had both established themselves as big-time sluggers at this point in their career - Banks hit 44 HRs at age 24, Rodriguez posted the first of what would six consecutive 40+ homer seasons at age 24. Ramirez is awfully good, and started early enough, but he just doesn't have that kind of pop. He's ahead of Sosa, Schmidt, Banks, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield, Thome
13. Grady Sizemore (Age-26; Career Best-33; 30 HR seasons-1) - Started playing regularly at age 22, and he may very develop more power than he's shown so far. Not sure he should still be hitting leadoff. He seems to have a fair bit in common with Carlos Beltran, another centre fielder who arrived at age 22 with a wonderfully complete game. Beltran found the power switch at age 27, so let's see what Sizemore does this year. As a home run hitter, he does need to take a step forward. He's ahead of T.Williams, McCovey, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield
14. Adrian Beltre (Age-30; Career Best-48; 30 HR seasons-1) - He's been a major leaguer since he was 19, but he's not really a big power hitter - his famous fluke year is the only time he's hit more than 26 homers. He's finally moving to a decent place to hit, after spending his entire career in Dodger Stadium and Safeco Field. That will help some. But he's a third baseman, and as such, will finish with about 375 career homers. Still ahead of McGwire, Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield
15. Paul Konerko (Age-33; Career Best-41; 30 HR seasons-5) - He's been a good player, and being a good player isn't good enough. Great players decline into goodness. Good guys decline into medicority. Konerko is on his way, and will be hard pressed to make it to 400 homers. He's ahead of T.Williams and Palmeiro
16. Ryan Howard (Age-29; Career Best-58; 30 HR seasons-4) - He got started too late. He was drafted out of college and didn't turn pro until he was 22. Then he was moved very, very slowly through the minors. Everyone knows he was blocked by Jim Thome at the end of his minor league run - but he spent two full seasons in A ball, and this was after his short season in A ball after the Phillies signed him. He was certainly hitting, so one can only assume that the organization was freaked out by all the strikeouts. And it was then that he found his path blocked by a Hall of Famer. Howard didn't play his first full season until he was 26, and if Thome hadn't been hurt in 2005 who knows how long they'd have made him wait. He played 507 minor league games, and at least half of them came after he was clearly a bonafide major league talent. He should have been in the majors at least three years earlier, in which case he'd probably have more homers than Adam Dunn as well as a much rosier future. Too bad. He is ahead of Palmeiro. Also ahead of Sheffield
17. David Ortiz (Age-33; Career Best-54; 30 HR seasons-5) - He didn't get started all that late - he was in the majors to stay when he was 24. He just wasn't all that impressive until he moved to Fenway. He then put together five pretty monstrous seasons, but he started fading, fast and drastically, two years ago. I don't think he can fight it off - I don't think he'll make it to 400. He's still ahead of Palmeiro
18. Troy Glaus (Age-32; Career Best-47; 30 HR seasons-5) - He's a pretty tremendous power hitter. He didn't waste much time getting started - after beng drafted out of college, he needed just 140 minor league games. But he's been way too brittle - in his seven healthy seasons, he's averaged better than 35 HRs a year. The problem is he's played 11 seasons, and in the other four he missed a total of 370 games, and hit an average of 13 home runs. Now in Atlanta, where he will keep Chipper Jones at third base. Because when you're not as durable as Chipper, they move you to first base. He's ahead of Palmeiro
19. Carlos Beltran (Age-32; Career Best-41; 30 HR seasons-3) - I'm not as bullish as I was four years ago. He's still a great player, but he's coming off a serious injury and he's moved into a tough home run park. On the other hand - he's still a great player. He's ahead of Palmeiro
20. Justin Morneau (Age-28; Career Best-34; 30 HR seasons-3) - Not really a big home run hitter, is he? Career high of 34. Should be in his power hitting prime right now. See Paul Konerko - a good player, not a great one. He's ahead of Palmeiro
21. Adrian Gonzalez (Age-27; Career Best-40; 30 HR seasons-3) - It took him a little while to get going - he played almost as many games in the minors (653) as Delgado. He was drafted first overall in 2000 and at first made nice progress through the Florida system. In 2003, the Marlins tried bumping him to AAA - he struggled badly, so they sent back him down to AA and then decided to trade him to Texas for a closer. He played well enough in AAA for the Rangers organization, but was nothing spectacular by any means - he ht .319 with 30 HRs in 207 games in the Pacific Coast League and did nothing memorable in his two tastes of major league action with the Rangers. Texas sent him on to San Diego in the Adam Eaton trade, a move they may regret until the end of time. Gonzalez was good right away in San Diego, then took a step forward to Very Good Indeed in his third season, and in 2009 he took the next logicalo step forward to Simply Great. After hitting 69 homers in his minor league career, he's hit 76 in his last two major league seasons - and we might bear in mind that he plays half his games in the best pitcher's park in the history of baseball. For now, he's only ahead of Palmeiro - but he's going to improve on that, and if he ever gets out of Petco....
22. Chipper Jones (Age-37; Career Best-45; 30 HR seasons-6) - Last year, Scott Rolen hit 11 HRs, drove in 67 runs, and his OB/Slug were .368/.455. We were pretty happy about it. Well, Chipper is coming off a year when he hit 18 HRs, drove in 71 runs, and his OB/Slug were .388/.430. Jones, you need to know, is absolutely appalled by his performance. He says he has to consider retirement if that's the best he can do. Well, gosh. I suppose that's what you get when you set the bar so damn high, Larry. Chipper Jones is probably the second greatest hitting third baseman of all time - it's him or Eddie Matthews, battling it out for the spot behind Mike Schmdt. And yet - as great as he has been, which is very great indeed, he's unlikely to make it to 500 homers and even less likely to make it to 3000 hits. Jones is actually ahead of T.Williams homer pace, but no one else.
The other players considered here are ahead of no one in the Top 25, which means they're chances of eventually cracking that list are extremely remote.
Matt Holiday (Age-29; Career Best-36; 30 HR seasons-2) He's averaged 32 homers a year over his last three seasons. If he keeps doing that until he's 40.... it won't be enough to crack the leaderboard.
Jason Bay (Age-30; Career Best-36; 30 HR seasons-4) He's basically Holliday, a year older. Same career best. In Bay's extra year of existence, he's got an additional 33 homers.
Chase Utley (Age-30; Career Best-; 33 HR seasons-3) There are no second baseman in the Top 25 - there aren't even any guys who spent a significant chunk of their careers at second base. Even shortstop is better represented, with Rodriguez and Banks. Even catcher is better represented (Jimmie Foxx hit 26 HRs as a catcher.) At 2b... well, Henry Aaron hit 4 HRs as a second baseman. Harmon Killebrew hit 3 (and can you imagine Killebrew playing second?) While nobody has hit 400 HRs as a catcher, a number of players have hit more than 300 - Mike Piazza leads the way with 391 HRs as a catcher, and he's joined by Carlton Fisk, Johnny Bench, and Yogi Berra. Jeff Kent is the only player in history to hit 300 HRs as a second baseman. Utley has a chance to be the second, I guess.
Carlos Pena (Age-31; Career Best-46; 30 HR seasons-3) He's hit 116 HRs in his last three seasons, which gives a fella hope. But it took him way too long to get established (672 minor league games, and unlike Delgado Pena was a college player who didn't play professionally until he was 21.) Plus he's not really good enough to last as long as he'd need to last anyway. It's pretty clear that he has increased his power for real, but nevertheless, 2006 was something of a fluke - he's a .247 hitter who got hit-lucky. So his decline phase will take him out of the lineup.
Lance Berkman (Age-33; Career Best-45; 30 HR seasons-5) Still trying to overcome a late start. Berkman went to Rice and zipped through the minors quickly enough - but he was still 25 when he played his first full season. He's one hell of a player, and quite possibly the most overlooked star in the game today - he plays Pujols' position in Pujols' league would be the reason why. But he's never had a bad year - his worst OPS+ in any single season is 130, and he's been pretty durable as well. He may be able to overtake guys like Williams, Murray, Sheffield. But he's still a long shot.
Carlos Lee (Age-33; Career Best-37; 30 HR seasons-5) He played 580 minor league games before the White Sox gave him a shot. He seized the opportunity, of course, but he isn't really a big-time power hitter anyway - he's an all-round hitter, and a very consistent player. He's never put together any really enormous seasons.
Derrek Lee (Age-33; Career Best-46; 30 HR seasons-4) He's played even more minor league games (640) than Carlos Lee also - but Derrek was playing regularly in the majors when he was 22. The Marlins decided he needed a remedial course and sent him back to AAA the next year. Derrek is yet another guy who's been a good player rather than a great player. (He did have one great year, of course.) I think he'll make it to 400 homers, but not much beyond that.
Alfonso Soriano (Age-33; Career Best-46; 30 HR seasons-5) He got started too late. It seemed like we'd been hearing about him for years and years, and by the time the Yankees finally stuck him in the lineup and let him play he was already 25 years old. (Soriano only played 227 minor league games, but he turned pro in Japan, where he played from age 20-22.) He's been an outstanding home run hitter, but the late start and his problems staying in the lineup these last few years will make it tough. But he could fool us, I suppose.
Todd Helton (Age-35; Career Best-49; 30 HR seasons-6) Obviously not a contender - he had a couple of big-time power years in his 20s, but those days are long, long gone. Since turning 31 he's hit 74 HRs in 5 years and never more than 20. So he'd need to play until he's older than Julio Franco.
Miguel Tejada (Age-35; Career Best-34; 30 HR seasons-4) Not really a home run hitter, and his career doesn't seem likely to be as long as it once promised.
Magglio Ordonez (Age-35; Career Best-38; 30 HR seasons-4) See Carlos Lee. The White Sox took their sweet time with Ordonez as well - he didn't play regularly until he was 24, which is why he got to play in 655 minor league games. Like Carlos, Ordonez for the most part has run off a series of very good and very similar seasons that. But he is not aging as well - since the knee troubles began, his game has slipped considerably. In the midst of this steady decline, he suddenly tossed out the best season of his career by a mile - which certainly was confusing, if nothing else. But he's been nowhere near as good in Detroit as he was in Chicago. Whereas Lee has been pretty much the same all the tme and every where.
Jason Giambi (Age-38; Career Best-43; 30 HR seasons-8) Giambi started too late - he was 25 in his first season as a regular. He had a number of huge seasons but illness and injury bit him along the way. Looks like it's too late for him now. He is coming back to be a pinch-hitter. He's probably capable of more than that, and if Todd Helton gets hurt we might find out.
Here is the Big Honking Data Table tracking the yearly progress of, first, the current Top 25:
Player 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 HRs
Bonds 0 0 0 16 41 65 84 117 142 176 222 259 292 334 374 411 445 494 567 613 658 703 708 762
Aaron 0 0 13 40 66 110 140 179 219 253 298 342 366 398 442 481 510 554 592 639 673 713 733 755
Ruth 0 0 4 7 9 20 49 103 162 197 238 284 309 356 416 470 516 565 611 652 686 708 714 714
Mays 0 0 20 24 24 65 116 152 187 216 250 279 319 368 406 453 505 542 564 587 600 628 646 660
Griffey 0 16 38 60 87 132 172 189 238 294 350 398 438 460 468 481 501 536 563 593 611 630 630
Sosa 0 0 4 19 29 37 70 95 131 171 207 273 336 386 450 499 539 574 588 588 609 609
F.Robinson 0 0 38 67 98 134 165 202 241 262 291 324 373 403 418 450 475 503 522 552 574 583 586 586
Rodriguez 0 5 41 64 106 148 189 241 298 345 381 429 464 518 553 583 " " 583
McGwire 0 0 0 0 3 52 84 117 156 178 220 229 238 277 329 387 457 522 554 583 583
Killebrew 0 4 9 11 11 53 84 130 178 223 272 297 336 380 397 446 487 515 541 546 559 573 573
Palmeiro 0 0 0 3 17 25 33 47 73 95 132 155 194 233 271 314 361 400 447 490 528 551 569 569
Thome 0 0 1 3 10 30 55 93 133 163 196 233 282 334 381 423 430 472 507 541 564 564 564
R.Jackson 0 0 0 1 30 77 100 132 157 189 218 254 281 313 340 369 410 425 464 478 503 530 548 563
Schmidt 0 0 0 0 1 19 55 93 131 169 190 235 283 314 349 389 425 458 495 530 542 548 548
M.Ramirez 0 0 0 2 19 50 83 109 154 198 236 277 310 347 390 435 470 490 527 546 546
Mantle 0 13 36 57 84 121 173 207 249 280 320 374 404 419 454 473 496 518 536 536
Foxx 0 3 16 49 86 116 174 222 266 302 343 379 429 464 500 519 527 527 527 534 534
Thomas 0 0 0 0 7 39 63 104 142 182 222 257 286 301 344 348 376 418 436 448 487 513 521 521
McCovey 0 0 0 13 26 44 64 108 126 165 201 232 268 313 352 370 384 413 435 458 465 493 505 521
T.Williams 0 0 31 54 91 127 127 127 127 165 197 222 265 293 323 324 337 366 394 418 456 482 492 521
Mathews 0 0 25 72 112 153 190 222 253 299 338 370 399 422 445 477 493 509 512 512
Banks 0 0 0 0 2 21 65 93 136 183 228 269 298 335 353 376 404 419 442 474 497 509 512 512
Ott 1 19 61 86 115 153 176 211 242 275 306 342 369 388 415 445 463 489 510 511 511
Sheffield 0 4 9 19 21 54 74 101 117 159 180 202 236 279 315 340 379 415 449 455 480 499 509 509
Murray 0 0 0 27 54 79 111 133 165 198 227 258 275 305 333 353 379 398 414 441 458 479 501 504
As you can see, Alex Rodriguez has far more home runs through age 33 than any player in major league history - Jimmie Foxx is the only other man with more than 500 career homers by 33, and Rodriguez has already surpassed Foxx's final career number. In fact, Rodriguez has more home runs through age 35 as well. That's right - if Rodriguez decides to spend the next two years meditating on a Himalayan mountain top, he can return and still have more home runs through age 35 than anyone in major league history.
He is obviously very well positioned to overtake everyone in front of him, and a serious run at 900 career home runs is still a possibility.
Ah, but didn't Ken Griffey has already pass this way? Indeed there was a time, not so long ago, when Griffey had the most homers ever by a player through ages 28, 29, and 30. Griffey, of course, started breaking down with regularity at age 31 - and Griffey's edge on Jimmie Foxx ten years ago was not nearly as substantial as the edge Rodriguez has on Griffey.
Anyway - here is the progress being made by the 34 active players considered here:
Player 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 HRs
Pujols 0 0 0 37 71 114 160 201 250 282 319 366 366
Dunn 0 0 0 19 45 72 118 158 198 238 278 316 316
Cabrera 0 0 12 45 78 104 138 175 209 209
Fielder 0 0 0 2 30 80 114 160 160
A.Jones 0 5 23 54 80 116 150 185 221 250 301 342 368 371 388 388
Guerrero 0 0 1 12 50 92 136 170 209 234 273 305 338 365 392 407 407
Delgado 0 0 0 0 9 12 37 67 105 149 190 229 262 304 336 369 407 431 469 473 473
Zimmerman 0 0 0 20 44 58 91 91
Teixeira 0 0 0 0 0 26 64 107 140 170 203 242 242
C.Jones 0 0 0 0 0 23 53 74 108 153 189 227 253 280 310 331 357 386 408 426 426
Wright 0 0 0 14 41 67 97 130 140 140
Konerko 0 0 0 0 7 31 52 84 111 129 170 210 245 276 298 326 326
Ortiz 0 0 0 1 10 10 20 38 58 89 130 177 231 266 289 317 317
Glaus 0 0 0 1 30 77 118 148 164 182 219 257 277 304 304
Beltre 0 7 22 42 55 76 99 147 166 191 217 242 250 250
H.Ramirez 0 0 0 0 0 17 46 79 103 103
Sizemore 0 0 0 0 4 26 54 78 111 129 129
Braun 0 0 0 0 0 34 71 103 103
Howard 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 24 82 129 177 222 222
Beltran 0 0 0 0 22 29 53 82 108 146 162 203 236 263 273 273
Morneau 0 0 0 0 4 23 45 79 110 133 163 163
A.Gonzalez 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 31 61 97 137 137
Giambi 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 26 46 73 106 149 187 228 269 281 313 350 364 396 409 409
Helton 0 0 0 0 0 5 30 65 107 156 186 219 251 271 286 303 310 325 325
Berkman 0 0 0 0 0 4 25 59 101 126 156 180 225 259 288 313 313
C.Lee 0 0 0 0 0 16 40 64 90 121 152 184 221 253 281 307 307
D.Lee 0 0 0 1 18 23 51 72 99 130 162 208 216 238 258 293 293
Soriano 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 21 60 98 126 162 208 241 270 290 290
Tejada 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 34 64 95 129 156 190 216 240 258 271 285 285
Ordonez 0 0 0 0 0 4 18 48 80 111 149 178 187 195 219 247 268 277 277
Pena 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 40 67 85 86 132 163 202 202
Bay 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 30 62 97 118 149 185 185
Utley 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 15 43 75 97 130 161 161
Holliday 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 33 67 103 128 152 152
Four years ago, I picked 10 guys who I expected to make it to 500 career homers. Five of them were almost there at the time, and have since done so - Rodriguez, Ramirez, Thome, Sheffield, Thomas. Of the other five, I still like Pujols. But Andruw Jones has fallen off the face of the earth, and I don't feel nearly as confident about the other three - Delgado, Guerrero, and Beltran. I do think Carlos and Vlad will clear 500, but I'm not sure they'll make it far enough past that to crack the Top 25.
So the only active players I would want to bet on cracking the Top 25, at this stage, are Pujols and Cabrera.
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