What did Brett Cecil do to deserve this?
(My internets work again. Score.)
The Jays open a three-game series in St. Pete tonight. Cecil makes his 2010 big-league debut. Unfortunately, he is going to have to be really good to lead the Jays to victory. His hitters get to deal with "Twitchy" Matt Garza, who's thrown 8 innings in each of his 3 starts, allowed a grand total of 2 earned runs, and won every time.
Even worse, he's put up those numbers without facing the Blue Jays once. He owns Toronto. Garza has made exactly one bad start against the Jays franchise in his career - his debut, as a Twin, in 2006. That was the only time Garza played the Jays for Minnesota. Since being traded to the Rays prior to 2008, Garza has faced the Blue Jays 9 times. Here are Garza's WPA figures for those nine starts: .129 (the lowest), .378, .550, .473, .179, .308, .476, .159, .240. That's a total of 2.982 WPA in nine starts.
If Garza maintained that pace for a full season, let's say 33 starts, he'd have an astronomical 10.60 WPA. For comparison, here are the starting pitcher WPA leaders for the last five seasons: Greinke 6.07, Lee 5.96, Carmona 4.33, Johan Santana 3.85, Clemens 5.29.
If you like the more conventional stats, excluding his debut Garza has a 0.81 ERA, 7.4 innings a start, and a 6-2 record against Toronto. The losses were Shaun Marcum's best start ever, which you might not remember, and David Purcey's best start ever, which you probably do. What the WPA numbers show beyond the conventional ones is that Garza hasn't just pitched fantastically well. He's done it in tight situations. Every single time the Blue Jays have faced Matt Garza, their starting pitcher has brought it. And usually, it hasn't mattered.
Brett Cecil gets to push the rock up the mountain tonight. Rays are a -245 favorite. Game time is 7:05.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100423170535160