Don't give up on Snider
Monday, April 26 2010 @ 04:05 AM EDT
Contributed by: robertdudek
Quick now, how many AL hitters with 30+PA this year are younger than Travis Snider?
Answer: 1 - Elvis Andrus.
How many with at least 1 PA this year? Answer- still only one.
Travis Snider is very young and he has had his struggles this season.
He's hit the ball hard and generally worked deep counts, but he's going
to strike out a bunch and will probably hit below .250 this year.
But if the Jays stay the course with him, I think he's going to be a
star.
Here's a list of all the AL hitters aged 25 and under that have at least 30 PA this
season, as well as their BaseRuns per plate appearance (note: BaseRuns
is a very accurate run estimator):
|
Age |
Tm |
baseruns |
per pa |
| Evan Longoria |
24 |
TBR |
12.56 |
0.161 |
| Elvis Andrus |
21 |
TEX |
10.33 |
0.148 |
| *Daric Barton |
24 |
OAK |
11.92 |
0.147 |
| B.J. Upton |
25 |
TBR |
10.74 |
0.145 |
| Austin Jackson |
23 |
DET |
11.20 |
0.137 |
| #Matt Wieters |
24 |
BAL |
8.42 |
0.119 |
| Joaquin Arias |
25 |
TEX |
4.92 |
0.109 |
| Billy Butler |
24 |
KCR |
7.87 |
0.104 |
| Delmon Young |
24 |
MIN |
5.40 |
0.100 |
| *Luis Valbuena |
24 |
CLE |
4.77 |
0.097 |
| Sean Rodriguez |
25 |
TBR |
3.14 |
0.095 |
| *Ryan Sweeney |
25 |
OAK |
7.48 |
0.095 |
| Adam Jones |
24 |
BAL |
7.31 |
0.090 |
| Gordon Beckham |
23 |
CHW |
6.40 |
0.084 |
| #Asdrubal Cabrera |
24 |
CLE |
6.34 |
0.083 |
| *Travis Snider |
22 |
TOR |
4.98 |
0.077 |
| Scott Sizemore |
25 |
DET |
4.27 |
0.076 |
| *Chris Davis |
24 |
TEX |
3.17 |
0.060 |
| Matt LaPorta |
25 |
CLE |
1.93 |
0.036 |
| *Julio Borbon |
24 |
TEX |
1.81 |
0.032 |
| *Michael Brantley |
23 |
CLE |
0.93 |
0.026 |
| Lou Marson |
24 |
CLE |
0.50 |
0.014 |
| Brandon Wood |
25 |
LAA |
0.72 |
0.014 |
note1: does not include Sunday's games
note2: raw data from Baseball-reference.com; base runs adjusted for 2010
run environment
Note that Snider is the only Blue Jay on this list (Adam
Lind is next youngest at 26). Snider has a very low batting average, not because of strikeouts (21.5% of PA, not a particularly high rate) but because he has a very low batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is .150, which is about half what we'd expect an average hitter to produce. Given that Snider generally hits the ball hard, the conclusion that presents itself is that he's been unlucky so far this season in this regard.
Nevertheless, I imagine the pressure is building to "do something" about the situation, which in this case would mean a demotion to AAA. Two of the players below Snider on the
above list, namely Michael Brantley and Chris Davis, have been sent down
to AAA after difficult starts this season. Should the Jays
do the same with Snider?
I think not - for two reasons.
The first is that Snider has shown that he can destroy AAA pitching and
my personal belief is that in such cases one should stick with a
talented but struggling young hitter as long as he's putting up a good
fight. The second is, notwithstanding over-optimism in some
quarters, this is a building year for the future. That means sorting out
the talent and shaping it into the next contending team. Travis Snider
looks to me like an adequate defensive corner outfielder and has the
potential to be a great hitter in about 3 or 4 years.
41 comments
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100426040502365