The battle for starting pitcher jobs is likely to be one of the most interesting contests of spring training. There are several new pitchers looking for their first professional assignment. Will Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski get assigned to Lansing or Dunedin? Will any of the kids get to start in Lansing? Is Henderson Alvarez ready for AA? Who will get the fifth starting job on these teams?
All of this ignores the battle at the major league level for the #4 and #5 jobs. And wait until you see the battle at Lansing, they could fill two teams with starters.
Before we begin, most teams need to have six potential starters because, on average, one starter will be on the DL at any time. The expected fight for some jobs may not materialize depending on who gets injured.
Toronto
We know that Ricky Romero; Brandon Morrow; and Brett Cecil have three jobs locked up. Kyle Drabek; Jesse Litsch; and Marc Rzepczynski will battle for two jobs. Brad Mills; Zack Stewart; Scott Richmond and Bobby Ray each think they have a shot at the fifth job. Some of the decisions will come down to who has options left to be sent to AAA.
Las Vegas
The losers in the Blue Jay rotation battle will head for Vegas. However several of those pitchers may not make the starting rotation in AAA. Scott Richmond and Bobby Ray might get a bullpen assignment if the Jays have decided their major league future is in the pen. Having said that the Jays signed so many relievers over the winter that the bullpen is looking crowded too.
Behind Stewart, Zep/Drabek/Litsch and Mills there will be two open jobs. In addition to Richmond and Ray, Luis Perez; Jo-Jo Reyes; and Sean Henn will try and claim the last two spots. Each of those pitchers have started in AAA in the past. If Richmond is fully recovered from his injury I see he and Luis Perez being the favourites. Ray and Henn have pitched out of the bullpen in the past. Reyes has to pass through waivers to make it to the minors. The Jays plans for him are not clear at this point.
One long shot to consider would be Casey Janssen. The Jays did try and make Janssen a starter a few years ago but it didn't work out. If Janssen were to lose out on a major league bullpen job the Jays could again try him as a starter.
New Hampshire
Randy Boone was a key part of the Fisher Cats rotation in 2010, particularly in the first half before he became injured. Boone doesn't overpower anyone but he mixes four pitches well. Joel Carreno pitched well enough in Dunedin in 2010 to earn a promotion for 2011. Carreno got a lot of attention with his strikeout numbers in Dunedin but he will be asked to prove himself again in AA. Chuck Huggins retirement was a surprise. Although Huggins was not a top prospect, he was expected to make the AA rotation this year. Huggins had spent over a season at Dunedin and was considered ready for AA. Huggins retirement creates a bit of a gap in the Jays plans. Holdovers in New Hampshire such as Reyes; BJ LaMura; and Reidier Gonzalez will compete with potential pitchers trying to move up such as Henderson Alvarez and Chad Jenkins. If Reyes is claimed, or stays in AAA, then LaMura and Gonzalez could claim two of the spots with the fifth job up for grabs. Mike MacDonald is a Maine native who pitched in AA last season, he may have been signed to fill Huggins spot.
Alvarez was throwing the ball down the middle of the plate last season and the Jays will make sure he fixes that before he is promoted, I believe he stays in Dunedin for a while. Jenkins made good progress later in 2010 according to Dane Johnson so he could push for a promotion too. Many prospect watchers have been disappointed with Jenkins progress so far in his pro career but Dane Johson was quite positive about his development in my year-end interview last season. I still thinks he stays in Dunedin for a while but both he and Alvarez will be shooting for that first promotion.
Bobby Bell started last season in the AA rotation. But because of injuries he missed half the season and I expect he will be back in the bullpen in 2011.
The projected AA rotation doesn't look to be as strong as last season when Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart anchored the rotation.
Dunedin
Alvarez and Jenkins should anchor the rotation while newcomers Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski will also look to stay in Florida. The fifth, or fourth and fifth spots, will be fought over by holdovers Ryan Page and Andrew Liebel, and Lansing pitchers Ryan Tepera and Ryan Shopshire.
(Ryan Tepera)
McGuire and Wojciechowski could each start in Lansing. However there are a lot of pitchers fighting over those spots and there are not a lot of options for the Dunedin jobs. The obvious candidates, the Lansing staff from 2010, did not pitch well last season so the normal move-up candidates are limited. In 2010 the Jays had Chad Jenkins start in Lansing but I think this year they will opt for Dunedin for both of these guys.
Liebel is a former third round pick who missed most of 2010 through injury. Before his injury he wasn't impressive. Tepera was the most impressive Lansing starter in 2010 and he would be likely competing for that fifth spot.
The potential Dunedin rotation of Alvarez; Jenkins; McGuire; Wojciechowski; and Tepera could be a formidable one for the Jays.
Lansing
Lansing will see an interesting battle for starting jobs. Among the contenders are Aaron Sanchez; Griffin Murphy; Drew Hutchison; Casey Lawrence; Dave Sever; Matt Fields; Daniel Webb; Nestor Molina (if the Jays convert him to be a starter); Egan Smith; Sean Nolin; Jesse Hernandez and Misaul Diaz.
As always the jobs will go to the top prospects first. My order of priority for these pitchers is:
Sanchez
Murphy
Hutchison
Webb; Nolin; Molina
Diaz
Lawrence; Fields; Sever; Smith, Hernandez
Sanchez; Murphy and Hutchison should get the first three spots as they are top 30 prospects. Hutchison is virtually guaranteed a spot while Sanchez and Murphy have to prove they can handle the Midwest League.
Sean Nolin is a 2010 draftee and the Jays need to see what they have in him. Nestor Molina was one of the most improved pitchers in the system in 2010 and if the Jays see his potential they could switch him into the rotation. Dan Webb started for Auburn in 2010 and pitched reasonably well there. Webb and the next man in, Misaul Diaz, are both 21 and have time to develop. Hutchison is still just 20 years old.
My guess today would be that the five spots go to Sanchez; Hutchison; Nolin; Molina and Lawrence. Webb might get a shot at the closers job. Murphy and Diaz will stay in the GCL. The others will likely get bullpen jobs.
Battling for that fifth spot would be tough for Casey Lawrence who had a great 2010, including a late season promotion to Lansing, but undrafted free agents don't get the benefit of the doubt. Lawrence could also be assured of being a starter in the event of injury or if Molina doesn't get converted.
(Nestor Molina, frame is from a video explaining the blur)
Extended/GCL
The Jays will have a host of young starters in extended. Griffin Murphy; Noah Syndergaard; Justin Nicolino; Deivy Estrada; Mitchell Taylor; Myles Jaye; Adaric Kelly; Nicholas Purdy and many more.
In summary there will be some interesting battles for starting pitcher jobs this spring. By improving the system the Jays have increased the pitching talent and with all the young arms the battles will be even tougher next year.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20110209162332232