Yesterday was hitters, today it's pitching and defense. Tomorrow? You'll have to wait and see (I predict it's our annual concession stand preview, but I've been wrong before.)
Which
Brandon Morrow shows up - April and May (11 G, 57 IP, 66/34 K/BB, 6.00
era) or June onwards (15 G, 89.1 IP, 112/32 K/BB, 3.53 era)?
Dave Rutt: Morrow’s
xFIP (3.48) was a full run lower than his ERA (4.49), so he’s already
an excellent pitcher even without a step forward, which is certainly a
possibility given his second-half.
Matthew E: I’m optimistic about Morrow. I think he’s for real. He might even get better.
Alex Obal: Good
Morrow. He improved his touch and confidence, right? As long as he
doesn’t get bombed back to the cretaceous period in April, I see no
reason to expect that the changes didn’t stick with him. If he stays
healthy, he could be Mark Prior. And if he gets hurt, well...
Gerry: I will pile onto the bus, good Morrow will show up guided by Jose Molina.
Thomas: The
success of multiple of my fantasy teams depends, at least in part, on
Brandon Morrow’s second-half emergence. I’m a believer.
Anders:
I’m bullish on Morrow (is that the good one? Bearish? No wonder we got
into this financial mess) in 2011 - he was one of the best pitchers in
baseball last year, and if he can keep his walks down, watch out.
Kyle Drabek - Great Rookie or Greatest Rookie? Show your work.
Gerry:
I think he will have his ups and downs. Baseball is a game of
adjustments and that usually is what gets the rookies, they are slower
to see the patterns and adjust. Last season Drabek was too careful and
he came into the league throwing his curveball in the dirt, that worked
in AA but not so much in the majors. He knows now he needs to keep it
up and that has helped him this spring. I think he might start strong
but then be forced into some adjustments during the season.
Matthew E:
I’m optimistic about Drabek… in the long run. In the short run he might
not look so impressive, and may very well be sent down to Vegas for
seasoning.
Obal: I
have no idea. (“Okay, so put you down for greatest?” *fumble fumble
don’t get the joke*) He certainly has the stuff, and it looks like he
has the poise. He didn’t overpower minor-league hitters with strikeouts.
Was he simply trying to win games, or does he really struggle to finish
hitters off? My intuition is it’s the former. We’ll all be watching his
K, BB and GB rates closely.
Anders: Great rookie. In that he makes it through the year intact. I’d settle for a debut year like Romero’s.
DR:
I don’t know the first thing about scouting, but I remember being blown
away by Drabek’s stuff in his debut last year. He had this fastball
that seemed to move in on right-handers so much I couldn’t really
believe it. So I think he’ll be good this year, probably based on
completely misguided ideas.
Thomas: I
agree with the consensus again. Look, if you want a contrarian for the
sake of it, go somewhere else. Drabek will have good and bad moments.
There’ll be nights when everything of his is working and he looks like
quite good and he’ll mix in starts where he struggles to throw pitches
for strikes and last 5 innings.
The
Jays bullpen is made up of a bunch of new faces, including three
"proven" veterans in Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco, who
join old favourites such as Shawn Camp, David Purcey and Jason Frasor.
Who gets the most saves, and what are your impressions of the group as a
whole?
Gerry:
This is an injury call in some ways. If Francisco gets back soon and
stay healthy then he is the answer. Rauch is a good second choice.
DR: It’s deep, which is important now that a couple guys are on the shelf. Should be an effective rotating cast.
Matthew E: Perfectly reasonable bullpen, just like the Jays usually have. My dark horse candidate for closer is David Purcey.
Thomas: Francisco
will be the closer, barring further health issues. I like the bullpen,
but I do think the depth may cause the Jays to lose an arm during the
season due to waivers that they’d have preferred to keep. The
interesting thing will be to see how AA sorts through the options as the
season progresses and injuries and under-performance rear their heads.
Anders:
Well, I think F-Squared is the “Proven Closer™”, so he leads in saves. I
think the corps as a whole will be slightly better than year, when they
were in the middle of the pack in ERA and FIP.
Obal: Most
saves will go to either Rauch or Francisco – Rauch if he dominates
early and makes displacing him look like a bad idea, Francisco
otherwise. If Francisco gets healthy quickly this looks like an
excellent unit. Watch out for Marc Rzepczynski – for all we know he’s
got the best stuff in the bullpen.
While
at one point it looked like the defense was going to change
significantly, it now appears the main differences will be Davis instead
of Wells in CF, Lind instead of Overbay at 1B, and Arencibia and Molina
instead of Buck and Molina behind the dish. How does this alter the
team's overall performance? Will Adam Lind make us think back wistfully
on the Carlos Delgado defensive era?
Thomas: I
have no recollection of Davis in the field, but I anticipate he’ll be
an upgrade over Wells. I’m not sure there’ll be a big difference at
catcher, as Molina will play more than he did last year, unless there
are some unexpected issues with how Arencibia handles the pitching
staff. I think the presence of Wakamatsu will help this concern. The
bigger issue is Lind at first; EE’s throws are sometimes white-knuckle
rides and Escobar has a occasional tendency to get lazy in the field.
Matthew E:
I don’t even really know if Davis is better than Wells in centre,
although I’m willing to accept it as a working theory. Overall I think
the defense will be about the same as last year, and Lind will be
acceptable at first.
DR: If
the reports of EE looking good at first are true, and Lind continues to
not hit, I could see Eddie taking over at first. But that will barely
affect the team defense (and even then we don’t know exactly how), so
yeah, what Matthew said.
Gerry:
We haven’t seen Davis play in CF but let’s assume his younger legs give
us a small pickup. The catching situation will be close to a wash,
maybe a shade less than last season, offsetting the Davis/Wells switch.
Lind will be worse than Overbay, he has to be, a rookie fielder vs an
established veteran. I think Overbay’s defense might have been
over-valued by the Toronto media but Lind will probably screw up on
which balls to take and which to leave for the second baseman or the
pitcher. I don’t think Lind will be a disaster but he has to learn how
to play the position at a major league level.
Obal: No
clue on Lind, Arencibia, Davis or Rivera. I always thought Encarnacion
would be an excellent first baseman – he has the range and reflexes, he
just looks really awkward and can’t throw (at all). As it is, EE
throwing to Adam Lind at first does not fill me with confidence. Escobar
and Hill are both very competent and should end up comfortably above
average.
Anders: I’m not optimistic about Lind at first - he’s terrible in MLB The Show 11.
The
Blue Jays allowed 728 runs last year, good for 19th best in baseball
(9th in the AL). Does that number increase, decrease, or stay the same,
and by how much?
Anders:
Well, like I said in yesterday’s thread, I think more runs are going to
be scored overall, so lets say the Jays allow 740, which keeps them
about in place.
DR: 19th
best in baseball? Really? I thought the pitching was good last year. I
guess it’s the AL East effect? Anyway, the loss of Marcum will hurt, so
the runs allowed total will go up a bit.
Obal: This
looks like an average run prevention unit. The runs allowed will go up a
bit. My bold prediction: led by the improved bullpen, the pitching
staff’s WPA will go up, too.
Gerry:
Sophomore pitchers can break your heart and I will say we will see some
regression. On the other hand the bullpen has some issues last season
so lets assume they are a little better. I will say the Jays allow 750
runs this season.
Thomas: Better in some areas, worse in others. Up to 747 runs.
Matthew E:
It increases by a little bit, say to 743 runs. I think we’re due for
some of these young pitchers to get hurt, take a step back, or both.
Mostly because everything went so great in 2010; it can’t last.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20110328122712906