Starting Rotation Predicted: 2011 Results

Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:07 PM EST

Contributed by: Matthew E

Got to this sooner than I thought I would.

The other contest we had was the one to predict the starting pitching breakdown for the 2011 Jays.

First, here's how the starts were actually allocated:

Romero    32
Morrow    30
Cecil    20
Reyes    20
Drabek    14
Villanueva    13
Alvarez    10
Litsch    8
Perez    4
McGowan    4
Mills    4
Stewart    3

For the results... Most people made the same kinds of mistakes. We all tended to overestimate Cecil, and most of us did the same with Drabek and Litsch. Marc Rzepczynski didn't get a single start but most of us thought he'd be a mainstay in the rotation. We didn't see Alvarez coming, and we blew off Villanueva and Reyes. Really it's surprising we did as well as we did.

One problem was that a couple of entries said, "...and X number of starts for other people I'm not going to bother to list!" I decided to treat them as "someone currently outside the organization", which in practice meant "nobody", because everyone who made a start for the '11 Jays was in the organization in spring training.

Here's how we did.

GabrielSyme 113
onecent 113
TamRa 112
CeeBee 111
Brian 110
Matthew E 109 (I think this is the best I've ever done in one of these things)
Kieran 109
Dan Gordon 108
Magpie 107
John Northey 107
Ron 107
Jonny German 106
Nolan 106
Mick Doherty 104
ayjackson 104
Subversive 101
Mike Green 96
bpoz 94 (but one of the only two who predicted any starts at all for Henderson Alvarez!)
AWeb 93
Timbuck2 92 (the other Alvarez guesser)

Gabriel's ballot was:

Romero 32
Morrow 30
Cecil 32
Reyes 4
Drabek 27
Litsch 18
Mills 2
Stewart 3
Rzepczynski 14

onecent's guesses were:

Romero 33
Morrow 32
Cecil 31
Reyes 6
Drabek 20
Litsch 24
Stewart 5
Rzepczynski 11

Congratulations to the both of them.

I said in the comments to the third-base results article that I didn't think third base to be fruitful ground for such a contest this year. Really it'd be just a prediction of whether Lawrie was going to get hurt and how much. I prefer the idea of a prediction thread for starts in left field.

But the starting pitching one is perennially good; there's always some dispute about how that's going to break down. Do you want a new thread for that or just put it in here?