Advance Scout: Twins, May 10-13

Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 04:11 PM EDT

Okay, so, the site just deleted the entire Advance Scout that I wrote up, which, that's super annoying. Only the intro survived, and I don't have the time and inclination to write the whole thing again, so super abbreviated Advance Scout.

The Minnesota Twins are the worst team in baseball. They're last in the majors in both ERA and FIP by a healthy margin, and they're third from the bottom in the AL in wOBA, just ahead of noted offensive juggernauts Oakland and Seattle. They are 8 and 22, at least three games worse than anyone else, and they're -53 runs on the season, which is almost twice as bad as the next worst team. They are 3-13 in their last 16, and in a just concluded 9 game sequence against Anaheim (x2) and Seattle they were outscored 37-17. In the set against the Jays they're going to start two minor leaguers and two of the worst starters in baseball. So beware, for this sets up perfectly as a high expectations series that the Jays predictably blow. But never fear, the Advance Scout is here to talk you through it.

The Twins situation is pretty ghastly, and at this point the team is basically a good AAA squad.

Thursday: Henderson Alvarez v. Jason Marquis

Marquis has been injured in each of the last two years, he is not very good, and he is poised to become the third most winningsest and strikeoutingest Jewish pitcher of all time. Like every starter in this series, he throws sub-90, doesn't strike anyone out, walks a slightly better than average number, and has no above average pitches at this point. Seriously, this is true of each of these four pitchers. Only the Jays who spent time in the NL have faced Marquis, and Edwin has crushed him. Oh yeah, he's a groundball pitcher too.

Friday: Kyle Drabek v. Nick Blackburn

Blackburn had two decentish years after debuting, but in the last three his ERA is, cumulatively, over 5. He is not very good.

Saturday: Drew Hutchison v. PJ Walters

Walters was a Jay for 1 inning (he allowed a run), coming over with Colby Rasmus in the Edwin Jackson trade. He's mostly relieved in the big leagues, making 20 appearances (4 starts), and his numbers are poor, with a FIP above 5.

Sunday: Ricky Romero v. Scott Diamond

It seems like Ricky Romero only pitches day games against lefties. And I crazy here? Anyway, Guelph Ontario's own Scott Diamond was taken in the Rule V by the Braves, who subsequently traded him to the Twins anyway for a prospect. He projects as a back of the rotation starter at best, and has had a good 2012 in AAA with the Twins. He pitched 3 innings for Canada in the last WBC.

Lineup

This is a guess, as there is some turmoil

Denard Span CF
Brian Dozier SS
Joe Mauer 1B
Josh Willingham LF
Ryan Doumit DH
Erik Komatsu RF
Drew Butera C
Jamie Carroll/Trevor Plouffe 3B
Alexi Casilla 2B

Just read this by Aaron Gleeman. It explains a lot. In short; Justin Morneau is on the DL with a wrist injury, Danny Valencia, the Twins 3B for the last two years, just got sent down, with former Jay Darin Mastroianni coming back up. Jamey Carrol and Trevor Plouffe figure to platoon at third. Alexi Casilla has been out of the lineup with shoulder soreness the last three games, but should be back tonight. Expect Chris Parmalee to start at least 1 game at first, with Mauer catching. The Twins can't hit at all, and of four guys in the above lineup, probably 4 of them are major league calibre hitters at this point.

Infirmary: Scott Baker is out for the year with TJ, and Justin Morneau is on the DL with a wrist injury.

Song to Advance Scout by: In celebration of Canada, Canadian supergroup (plus Neko Case) the New Pornographers, with Use It.

Chart: Diamond and Walters stats from AAA

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