The new season is finally here. Several of the roster have registered their opinions on the 2017 season.
Who will surprise us positively this year? Who will exceed expectations?
Gerry - Can I say Justin Smoak? I know everyone is down on him but the bar is so low that I think he can do OK. I think he can hold down a decent first base for around 100 games played and produce numbers a little bit better than the first half of last season. I also like JA Happ to pitch at least as well as last season.
#2JBrumfield - I think Steve Pearce will stay healthy in 2017 and will blow past his career-high of 102 games and post an OPS near .800. Devon Travis is also due for a healthy season so those are my clicks to pick.Eephus - Lets get Rowdy! Trur, it would probably take an extreme duo of circumstances (Smoak striking out half the time and Tellez destroying the International League, PCL style) for Rowdy to get enough of a chance to make an impact on the 2017 Jays. But I've loved what I've seen, heard and read so far: he strikes me as a player confident of his tremendous ability, yet with simultaneous strong lucidity to recognize the wealth of baseball knowledge around him this spring, thus the story we heard recently of him and Tulowitzki going out to dinner (with Tellez frantically scribbling down notes immediately afterward).
It's possible Rowdy winds up in the mix for ABs this year but even the realist in me wins that debate over the optimist. Other players exceeding expectations? Surprises? I think Liriano is likely to have a nice year, Pearce (if healthy) should be a nice piece, and Kendrys Morales is fun to watch at the plate. Just the way he waggles his bat, at least from the left side it's almost Julio Franco like. Picking a surprise is hard. How about Mike Ohlman gets 100 plate appearances and rakes? Not unthinkable, if you don't think about it very much...
Thomas - Justin Smoak......Okay, seriously, I think JA Happ surprises this year. He won't win 20 games against and he won't post an ERA under 3.25, but I think the regression will be smaller than a lot of people expect. Maybe I've fallen under the influence of the Cult of Ray Searage, but last year he looked so different to the pitcher he was his first time here. I'm a believer.
Magpie - I think we all kind of expect Kendrys Morales to be pretty decent, but not Edwin. Probably true, but Edwin wasn't Edwin until he moved to the Rogers Centre either. Morales has spent his entire career in absolutely terrible parks for a power hitter. Only four Angels have cleared 40 HRs in franchise history, and only one Royal. The Blue Jays have had that many 40 HR seasons since 2010. He's going to like it here. I'd also like to hope that Kevin Pillar can surprise us as well. We know what he's trying to do, and I'm generally skeptical that players can remake themselves at this stage of their careers. Still, I missed most of the season opener but I still saw Pillar take at least three pitches he would have been hacking at last season. It probably won't outlast his first slump, but youneverknow...
Who will fall short of expectations this year? Remember the expectations for Cabrera/Upton and Smoak are low so it could be hard to fall short of a low number for them.
#2JB - I think Aaron Sanchez will not duplicate his 2016 season as he had a pretty heavy workload last year and I think he'll still be knocking off some rust in the first part of the season. I'm also wondering if Joe Biagini will not fall victim to the sophomore jinx.
Eephus - J.A Happ is the guy to me that maybe isn't as good as he looked last year. Expecting him to win 20 games again is totally absurd, but what he did in 2016 was such an obvious career year and once you consider his age (34) it's hard to imagine a repeat. I expect he'll give the Jays buckets of good innings and be solid, just not a "top left-handed starter in all of baseball" solid.
Thomas - Devon Travis. Not in terms of his on-field performance, but I do think he'll have another injury-plagued season and will have difficulty staying on the field consistently. In terms of on field performance, I worry about Grilli and Biagini being as reliable as they were last season and I think Martin's bat will continue to decline.
Gerry - I too think Sanchez could fall short. He did pitch a lot last year and he can fight his delivery from time to time. I do think that Devon Travis will get injured again and miss time. Why? Because the best predictor of getting injured is a prior history of getting hurt. Finally I think Kevin Pillar's new "walk more" approach won't last past May 15th.
Magpie - It seems unlikely that Happ and Sanchez will go 35-6 again. I don't know that anyone actually expects that. It also seems unlikely that all five starters will remain perfectly healthy.Who will lead the team in innings pitched and wins?
#2JB - I like Stroman for another 200 inning season and will get the W 18 times this year.
Eephus - Stroman for innings definitely, for wins I predict a three way tie between young Marcus, Sanchez and Liriano, all with 16.
Thomas - Stroman for innings and Sanchez and Happ for wins (doubling my odds of being successful).
Gerry - I said above I liked Happ so I will say Happ will pitch 194 innings to lead the team. Wins are more of a crapshoot so I will say Marcus Stroman with 19.
Magpie - I'll go with Happ for IP - his consistency last season was remarkable - and Liriano for Ws.Who will make the sixth most starts this year?
#2JB - I should say Casey Lawrence but instead, I will bet on the house - T.J. House! The poor guy gets beaned in the head but lives to tell about it so I'm rooting for him to be a contributor.
Eephus - Imagine... if you will.. an alternate universe... filled with chills, spills (!), and anything but thrills... step right up for... Mat Latos! Mike Bolsinger! A one time ticket? Save the receipt, you might be eligible for multiple trips into the fair! Chills! Spills! Definitely kills!
(My money is on Lucas Harrell being the #6 guy. Save us all please...)
Thomas - If TJ House is anything like the pitcher he was before his arm trouble, he's a good choice. However, I think it will be someone not currently in the organization. If there's a significant injury to a member of the staff, I have a hard time thinking the Jays won't look outside the organization for help, rather than mixing and matching with Lawrence, Bolsinger, Latos and Oberholtzer. As an aside, one of the most surprising things I read this season is that Mat Latos is only 29. Really?
Gerry - I too will go with TJ House. If there is an injury in the first four months the starts will go to whoever is hot in AAA. After that some of the prospects in AA could get the call.
Magpie - Well, I figure Latos can probably dominate in AAA, so he's the guy who'll get the best shot.Assume Josh Donaldson leads the team in OPS this year. Who comes second?
#2JB - I have to go with Joey Bats. He looks like a man on a mission.
Eephus - Gotta be Joey. Give him a couple days off from right field every ten (first base? first base?) and he might be top ten in the AL. Bats don't mess around.
Gerry - I will say the DH, Kendrys Morales. The Rogers Centre should suit him as will the lineup.
Magpie - I'm down with the Jose Bautista Vengeance Tour.How many wins for the Jays this season?
Gerry - 83, slightly disappointing but in it until September when some of the old players get hurt.
#2JB - I will say 82. Hitting will be the downfall.
Thomas - 87 and the first Wild Card.
Magpie - Anywhere from 80 to 96. Split the difference, make it 88.Who makes it to the playoffs and the World Series?
#2JB - Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Seattle, Texas in the AL. Washington, Chicago, Los Angeles, St. Louis, New York Mets in the NL. Seattle-Los Angeles World Series with Dodgers winning in 6.
Thomas - Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Toronto and Texas in the AL. Washington, Cubs, Los Angeles, the Mets and the Giants in the NL. Cleveland over the Cubs in a World Series rematch and the breaking of another pennant drought.
Gerry - Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Seattle and Baltimore in the AL. Washington, Cubs, Los Angeles, St Louis and the Giants in the NL. Cleveland over the Giants in the World Series.
Magpie - Boston, Cleveland, Seattle, Toronto, Houston in the AL. Washington, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals in the NL.Any other hot takes/predictions that will melt steel beams before the season?
#2JB - R.A. Dickey will beat the Jays when the Braves play them in May and it will piss me off just like his 2015 ALCS Game 4 debacle. The Rays are moving to Montreal in five years. People who sit behind home plate with cell phones waving that they're on TV should be tasered.
Eephus - The new stupid intentional walk rule will be scrapped by May 30th because it's silly, undermines what is great about baseball, and really doesn't serve the purpose it was created for. Make the game faster? Here's an idea: the catcher can only run to the mound once an inning, so use it wisely. At the very least it'll save more time than this dumb IBB rule will.
Gerry - Edwin Encarnacion will struggle to live up to his big contract in Cleveland. A slow start will be followed by a normal second half. 28 home runs.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20170331132902875