Trade Season in the Past
Sunday, July 18 2021 @ 11:38 PM EDT
Contributed by: John Northey
Everyone is getting curious - who will the Jays trade for? Who will they get, who will they lose? Lets take a look back to past contenders for an idea of what works/doesn't work and the cost.
Lets go most recent to oldest. Jays must have been either a playoff team or within 5 at the trade deadline (July 31st except this year and last). In the past trades could happen up to August 31st to have the player involved in the post season, with rare September trades happening. Only listing trades from June until end of season. Ignoring trades where the Jays lost someone for cash or future considerations.
- 2020: The bizarre year.
- 2016: Won Wild Card and made it to the ALCS, 1/2 a game back of lead on August 1st.
- 2015: Won division, made it to the ALCS - oh what fun this year was - 6 back of division on Aug 1st.
- 2014: didn't make playoffs, but August 1st were just 1 1/2 back of Boston for the lead (Jays and Boston flopped after that while Baltimore played at a 655 clip)
- 2005: No playoffs, mid-season 5 back of wild card exactly
- No trades, nothing done at all. Guess JPR didn't believe in this team.
- 2000: No playoffs, mid-season 4 1/2 back of division lead, 4 back of wild card Gord Ash's wild last attempt to win.
- 1999: No playoffs, 6 back of 1st but in wild card slot on August 1st.
- 1993: WS Champions - tied for 1st on August 1st
- July 31st: Steve Karsay and Jose Herrera for Rickey Henderson. (sadly a few minutes after verbally agreeing to it Seattle called back saying they'd do it for Randy Johnson...oh what could've been, but they did win a WS)
- 1992: WS Champions - 4 1/2 game lead Aug 1st
- 1991: AL East champions - 1st by 6 games Aug 1st
- 1990: No playoffs, tied for 1st on August 1st
- 1989: Won division, 3 games back of 1st on Aug 1st
- 1988: no playoffs, out of it mid season, but finished just 2 games out in the end
- No ML transactions from June 1st to end of season. Part of why Gillick was nicknamed 'Stand Pat' at the time.
- 1987: no playoffs, 2 1/2 out August 1st, finished 2 games out.
- 1986: no playoffs, 5 1/2 out August 1st
- 1985: Won division, first time in playoffs - first by 7 1/2 games Aug 1st
- 1983: First time in a race but didn't win. Just 2 1/2 out August 1st.
- No trades despite a massive hole in the pen (no closer, no one you could count on - it was a mess)
So there is a list of all the years the Jays had a shot August 1st, or would end up close in the end 1988 being that oddity). Best player lost was Jeff Kent - 1.3 WAR here, 55.5 overall, Michael Young is 2nd - 0 WAR here, 24.7 lifetime. The vast, vast majority though never did much. The best guys gained for the pennant race I'd say were pitchers, Cone (161 ERA+, 4 postseason starts, 22 1/3 IP 8 ER = 3.22 ERA), Candiotti (142 ERA+ to help the Jays make the playoffs, but sucked in the playoffs), Price (179 ERA+, but in 4 playoff games 23 1/3 IP 16 ER = 6.17 ERA). For longer term also pitchers - Ward was key to the 1992 and 1993 WS wins, as was Guzman. Quite a few flops there too of course. But you can see that to get quality you have to give up quality. Cone cost us Kent, Candiotti cost us Whiten (4 HR in a game) and Hill (very good hitter as well), Price cost us Boyd (8.2 WAR since leaving us and now a mid-season trade target himself). The big takeaway is that most prospects traded amount to very little. I love the Bergen for Ray trade as both have pitched here this year. I'd say our current GM is a lot like late Gillick who learned to just say 'screw it' and do the trades vs the younger version who was hesitant to do trades for some reason. Ash did more decent trades than I remembered, but that one ugly one really stands out, plus he never found the right pieces to win. Both AA and Atkins had no hesitation though to do a lot of tinkering and to pull the trigger on bigger trades - well, no massive ones yet for Atkins but I suspect he would pull the trigger given his volume. Guess we'll see over the next 11 days.