An Extremely Quick Look at the American League East

Lets envision two scenarios: one where everything works storybook perfect enough for a division crown, and an opposite where things go frustratingly sideways and the playoffs are but a faint hope when September rolls around. After all, no other division in baseball can boast four teams you could reasonably picture winning this darn thing. We'll call it the "Good Times" "Bad Times" system (lord I've had my share).

We'll start from the top to the bottom, as usual. Here goes:

Tampa Bay Rays (100-62, 1st, lost ALDS)

Good Times: The endless factory of young pitching continues to churn out quality, this time led by Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz (once he returns from an elbow injury). Meanwhile the salary dumps (I mean trades) of Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows open up more playing time for Brett Phillips, outfielder Josh Lowe and versatile prospect Vidal Brujan, all of whom capably replace the lost production. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena persist themselves as huge stars to be noticed, the no-name bullpen is as frustrating to opposing batters as usual... and the team once again is a juggernaut without glaring fault.

Bad Times: For once, excessive depth doesn't grow on the Rays tree and all the lineup changes result in a top heavy offense with little noise in the inexperienced bottom. It's always hard to imagine these guys having anything less than great pitching, but even Tampa Bay can only withstand so many injuries. With Glasnow out for most of the year, Baz's health in doubt and Corey Kluber's checkered ability to stay on a mound... it's possible we see a lot of bullpen days yet again from Kevin Cash, only for once this time they don't work out as well. Never mind the chance that Mike Zunino and/or Brandon Lowe can't repeat their career years.

This team still ends up in a playoff fight, worst case, but falls short without enough new (Create 'A') players stepping up.

Boston Red Sox (92-70, T-2nd, lost ALCS) 

Good Times: The underrated Red Sox offense, now with a Trevor Story freed from the perpetually hopeless Rockies, ambushes the league yet again... with just enough pitching to win a bunch of 7-5 or 9-7 games. Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and James Paxton slide in nicely (when available... cuz even in an optimistic universe, come on) behind ace Nathan Eovaldi. Then, Rule 5 Yankees torture pick Garrett Whitlock continues right where he left off... filling in as a starting pitcher later in the year and carrying Boston down the stretch. Ugh, what a disturbing universe indeed.

Bad Times: It was a fluke! Fluke! Flukey fluke fluke! The Red Sox have a bizarre habit of swaying from unbeatable barnstormer to dreadful pus over the past decade, with as many 5th place finishes (4) as 1st in that span. Here (in a just universe) their general offseason apathy bites them hard and they're unable to catch up to the truly great teams around them. The return of Jackie Bradley Jr. for Hunter Renfroe hurts the offense more than expected, Kike Hernandez isn't actually a 5 win player, the starting pitchers beyond Eovaldi can't catch lightning twice (or even a static spark) and Trevor Story struggles to hit .220 outside of Coors Field.

Ah, it would be glorious.   

Good Times: This team stays healthy and just never stops hitting home runs. In Judge, Stanton and Joey Gallo... the Bronx Bombers feature a trio of 40 home run hitters, plus great complimentary years from Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres (more comfortable thanks to a permanent move to 2B) and a return to the 2014-19 Cubs form of Anthony Rizzo (assisted by the infamous porch of New Yankee Stadium). In a Bronx Summer, the Yankees get just enough run prevention to support their great offense, except their pitching also ends up as a major strength thanks to SuperAce Gerrit Cole, the loud return of Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery's continued existence and Nestor Cortes translating his 2021 dominance into a full year in a big league rotation. The bullpen, with Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes, also shortens games for opposing teams unable to score against high velocity arms.

Bad Times: 2021 was the first time Judge and Stanton had played most of a full season together in the four years they've been Yankees, something to keep in mind as Stanton enters his age 32 season and Judge his age 30. Joey Gallo is square in his prime (28) but Josh Donaldson will be 36, Rizzo 32 and DJ LeMahieu (seemingly a high-paid super utility player for now) is 33. There's no questioning Luis Severino's talent but expecting him to survive a full season in an MLB rotation, after pitching 18 big league innings since 2018, ends up being a tall order to count on. Beyond Cole and the steady-but-not-great Jordan Montgomery... the unproven rotation costs them games. Aaron Hicks (another injury risk) shows he isn't up to playing centerfield anymore, leaving the Yankee defense in a bind.

Even that Bad Times scenario... bah. If they're close enough, never count out the Yankees. Unless you're the 2015 Blue Jays. Hey, speaking of....

 

Bad Times: The comparisons to the 2013 preseason become true: a squad with multiple huge additions that are predicted in March as a betting favourite and contender for the World Series title that never even sniffs success.

That year really sucked. And hey, if we're talking suck perhaps 2022 can't figure out Yusei Kikuchi and he becomes a very expensive and ineffective reliever... or Kevin Gausman's two pitch magic show suffers upon leaving the friendly parks of the NL West... or Hyun Jin Ryu's decline becomes less graceful as hoped... and the bullpen (despite the clear efforts to improve) once again costs the team a frustrating handful of games. And injuries. A middling record/performance in early August keeps the fanbase at a skeptical distance.

Man, that was really depressing. Glad I did the bad segment first on this one. Now here's what I really think:

Good Times: The comparisons to the 2013 preseason end up completely and justifiably unfounded. The 2012 Blue Jays were an objectively bad team, don't forget. Sure, adding all the parts they attempted (Reyes, Buehrle, Dickey, Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera) in theory should've resulted in better than one single victory more the next year... but hey, it's hard enough to go from good to great. I imagine it's even harder to go from bad to great.

The 2021 Blue Jays have the advantage of already being a great team, and though losing invaluable contributors like Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray and Stephen Matz translates to a loss in talent, the spirit of the team is clearly intact. Yet they've added: Kevin Gausman's splitter is so nasty...  Matt Chapman brings a different package of tools than Semien, and like his old teammate can really do some delightful things to help a club win. George Springer plays 130 games instead of an injury riddled 78? Danny Jansen finally runs into some good luck, or Gabby Moreno forces his way into this already deep lineup? A full year of Alek Manoah? The mystery of if Admiral Kirk can command the Enterprise? Some fool screaming "I believe in Bigginal...!!!

Lots of reasons to be excited about this. Lets enjoy it . 

Good Times: The prospects announce themselves and the league takes notice. Uber-prospect catcher Adley Rutschman proves himself this generation's Ted Simmons, a devastating switch hitting catcher except unlike Simmons he's gold glove work behind the dish... grooming an inexperienced Orioles staff into a top level outfit by season's end. Starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez likewise explodes on the league with his Noah Syndergaard profile of "bigger than life fastball, abundance of strikes" attack, striking out 180 in 110 innings and finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote behind league MVP Rutschman.

Cedric Mullins proves his 2021 was no fluke, Trey Mancini goes into early 30s Edwin Encarnacion mode, and the Orioles surprise the world by winning the div.... okay yeah that's enough. I can't even keep this charade up anymore. Even in a good universe the 2022 Orioles will be revoltingly terrible. At least they finally have some real exciting young players on the verge. Grayson Rodriguez's minor league stats are truly hilarious to his favour, and I'm sure Rutschman will go on burning the Blue Jays for years to come (may the sermon also decree Adley have a Wieters moment... turning away in instant disgust upon being framed within an iconic walkoff)...  

Bad Times: What I described above, except the young studs seriously hiccup and Mullins was a fluke. That sorry team potentially loses 126 games in this division.

This time, I'm not going to predict wins and losses, or standings either. How about... the Rays don't finish 1st, the Blue Jays end up higher than 4th, the Red Sox are no higher than 3rd, the Yankees are more bark than bite, and that the Orioles will continue to exist (despite reports to the contrary).

I don't know how to end this. Let it ride. Enjoy the season.