State of the System

Monday, May 16 2022 @ 07:36 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

The hitters were the stars on Sunday. Buffalo won one, of two, with New Hampshire and Dunedin also winning. Vancouver were blown out.

The minor league season is around one fifth done, with one fifth being 30 games. So I thought it was time to have a look at how the prospects in the system are doing. The start of the season is often slow as players get accustomed to a new level and as the weather does not always cooperate. So this is an early look with lots of baseball yet to be played.

Buffalo 10 Lehigh Valley 5 - game one

Buffalo 5 Lehigh Valley 7 - game two

Binghamton 4 New Hampshire 5

Vancouver 0 Eugene 10

Tampa 3 Dunedin 5


This is what I noted from yesterday's games.


Ten runs on six hits for Buffalo and Lehigh made no errors. Nine walks helped. Eric Stamets homered, a two run shot. Jordan Groshans was 1-2 with two walks. Groshans is controlling the strike zone well, his OBP is .418 in Buffalo. He has eight walks and just four strikeouts. But he has just two extra base hits. The power might come but thats the missing link right now. Samad Taylor went 1-3 and was hit by a pitch. He is hitting .257 and his OBP is .356. He has ten extra base hits and is slugging .442. He is striking out around 25% of the time. If he hits for a slightly better average, and strikes out a little less he will be ready. However...he is not having a great May, he hasn't walked and his OPS is down over 100 points from April. Otto Lopez had a delayed start due to injury and he hasn't found his stroke yet, hitting just .176.


Thomas Hatch started game one and threw five innings with three runs allowed, two earned. Adrian Hernandez gave up two runs in the ninth but they were unearned, so his ERA stays at zero.


Bowden Francis did not have a good game two, he conceded seven runs in 4.1 innings. Groshans, Taylor, Cullen Large and Logan Warmoth had two hits each.


A four run bottom of the eighth was good for a New Hampshire win. Will Robertson had an RBI double in the eighth and finished 3-3 with two doubles. John Aiello doubled in two more runs in that eighth inning. Tanner Morris was 2-5 and retains his .300 average. His OPS is 927, good for second in the org at time of writing behind PK Morris in Vancouver. AA has been a bit of a challenge for Spencer Horwitz whose .238 BA and .718 OPS is short of expectations. Orelvis had the day off on Sunday, his progress has been well discussed here.


Hayden Juenger started and ran into trouble in the first where he gave up two runs. After being promoted in BA this week this was not a good performance, he just went two innings with five hits and two walks. He had just one K.


Trent Palmer handled the first two innings for Vancouver with no problems. In the third a bunt single and a hit batter put two runners on with two outs. Then Mac Mueller made an error that let the a run score. Unfortunately it was Mueller's fourth error in 15 games, not good for an outfielder. After that Palmer seemed to lose it a bit. A wild pitch scored the second run and a single brought in the third. Then in the fourth he surrendered a two run home run before being pulled. The bullpen did no better, or the hitters. The C's ended the game with two hits and two errors.


Among the prospects in Vancouver Leo Jimenez got off to a slow start, hitting just .163 in April. But May has been different as he is hitting around .400 with an OPS of 1.100. PK Morris is leading the team in hitting but as a first baseman he will have a tough time getting to the show. Addison Barger is hitting the ball hard but striking out 30% of the time. Miguel Hiraldo is hitting under .200 and in danger of dropping off the prospect lists.


Five runs on six hits for Dunedin. Gabriel Martinez again featured going 2-4 with two doubles. Martinez got off to a slow start, his OPS in April was .540. But he has been excellent in May with a 1.160 OPS. He is hitting .396 in May with ten extra base hits in 12 games. Adrian Pinto who the Jays acquired in spring training was 1-3 and is hitting just .233. Rainer Nunez leads the offense but he is a first baseman, a tough position to progress to the majors. Adriel Sotolongo is also hitting well but he is 24. Estivan Machado and Rikelbin De Castro are also not standing out so far.


Rafael Ohashi started and went four innings with five K's. Trenton Wallace struck out six in his four innings and in total the Jays struck out 13 Yankees to add to yesterdays 24.


From a season to date perspective on pitchers, the Jays have a lot of overperformance at the lower levels. Setting the innings limit at 20, the following pitchers have an xFIP under 3.50: Dahian Santos; Ricky Tiedemann; Trent Palmer; Matt Svanson; Sem Robberse and Jonatan Bernal. All of those are in Dunedin or Vancouver. Pitchers who are playing well but haven't hit 20 innings include Yosver Zulueta, Adrian Hernandez, Trent Palmer and Hayden Juenger. Adam Kloffenstein, Maximo Castillo and Nick Fraze have been OK. Other pitching prospects have been missing, such as Nate Pearson, CJ Van Eck, Eric Pardinho and Irv Carter. Overall there is a lot to like about the Jays pitching prospects but it unlikely that they will provide much help this year or next. I believe the Jays understand this as their starting pitchers in the majors are under control for several years.



Three Stars

Third Star - John Aiello

Second Star - Gabriel Martinez

First Star - Will Robertson


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