Uncompetitive Starts

Sunday, June 26 2022 @ 05:56 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Given the recent bad starts I got to thinking about what is a reverse of the Quality Start? I'd call it Uncompetitive Starts.

Quality Start - 6IP and 3 or fewer runs
Uncompetitive Start - I'd say fewer then 5 innings, 5 or more runs allowed (IE: giving your team a very poor chance to win). By making it a double requirement you don't punish guys who go deep but allow a lot of runs, or guys who are openers thus won't get 5 IP under an circumstances. Not making a divider between earned and unearned runs as in the end runs are all that matter.

So the Jays this year are 1-8 in those games this year, these same pitchers teams were 4-11 in those games.

For comparison lets check a recent good year, 2015, and a recent bad one, 2019 Just guys with 10+ starts. First 2015... So just 15 nightmare starts from the Jays core staff in 2015 (12 guys started, but the rest were 1-5 starts). The Jays somehow went 5-10 in those games, pretty good all things considered.

2019 So 2 guys just starting their careers, and 2 guys ending it. Normal for a 95 loss team to give lots of chances to kids and old guys hoping to grab lightning in a bottle. In those 20 Uncompetitive Starts the Jays went 2-18 - only getting the 2 wins thanks to the offense going nuts and pulling out 1 run wins both times.

So good team or bad, when your starter sucks like that you are pretty much screwed. 2-18 in the bad year, 5-10 in a division winning year, 1-8 this year, 4-11 for those pitchers last year (2 were with other teams). Net of 12-47 over 4 seasons worth of data = 33-129 record - worse than the '62 Mets, but slightly better than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (they went 26-128 - at the pace we see here we'd see a team go 31-131 in a 154 game season). So basically when your starter gives you an uncompetitive start your team is the 1899 Cleveland Spiders - the worst team in MLB history. The Jays this year, despite a killer offense, are doing worse than that - an 18-144 pace which is kind of surprising as this teams appears not to quit very often. Go figure. The 2015 team was on a 54-108 pace, still an ugly record but not Spider bad - pretty much the 1977 Jays (54-107 due to a game rained out but not made up).

So basically if your starter has a game that bad he makes your teams odds of winning, even if you are a very good team, drop to 100+ loss territory and more like worst in baseball history level. I'd say that makes it an uncompetitive start. Thoughts? Better names for it? A fairly easy concept to go with Quality Starts. Maybe Blown Start would be good - acronym would be BS then which fits. I'd love broadcasters to say that Berrios has had 4 BS starts this year. Even fans not knowing what they mean would get the idea quickly. Of course, uncompetitive starts also gets that idea across.