Toronto at Baltimore, October 3-5
Monday, October 03 2022 @ 08:00 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
The Blue Jays are certainly going to the post-season. Who they play, and where, remains to be determined.
Three possibilities remain. The Jays have 90 wins with three games remaining; Seattle has 87 wins, with four left to play; Tampa Bay has 86 wins with three to play.
If Toronto wins two of the three games with Baltimore, it doesn't matter what the Mariners do. Even if Seattle won all four of their games with Detroit, Toronto would still host Seattle in the Wild Card series. Tampa Bay would be off to Cleveland.
But if the Blue Jays win just one of their three remaining games, Seattle can catch them. They would have to run the table but the Mariners will be playing at home, against a team that's already lost 93 games, whose starting rotation resembles a MASH unit. And all Seattle has to do is tie the Blue Jays because they already hold the tie-breaker. In which case, Seattle would host Toronto. Similarly, if the Jays get swept by the Orioles, Seattle will catch Toronto by winning three of their four games with Detroit. And again, Seattle would host the Blue Jays. And Tampa Bay goes to Cleveland.
But if Seattle wins just two of their four games with Detroit, the Jays are home free. And if Seattle win just twice against Detroit while Tampa Bay sweeps their series with Boston (or if Seattle wins just once while Tampa Bay wins twice, or whatever it takes for the Rays to catch the Mariners) - if that happens, and Seattle and Tampa Bay finish with the same record, then the Jays would host Tampa Bay in the Wild Card series, while Seattle goes off to Cleveland. Tampa Bay holds the tie-breaker over the Mariners.
Incidentally, the two hottest teams in the AL right now, having won 10 of their last 12 games, are the Cleveland Guardians and... the Detroit Tigers, MASH unit rotation and all.
The solution, as always - just win, baby.
Or you could look at the ERAs of the pitchers the Jays will send out to accomplish this mission. And be afraid. Be very afraid.
Mon 3 Oct - Berrios (11-7, 5.37) - Kremer (8-6, 3.17)
Tue 4 Oct - White (1-6, 5.21) - Baumann (1-3, 4.34)
Wed 5 Oct - Kikuchi ? (5-7, 5.27) - Lyles (12-11, 4.42)