Seattle at Toronto, April 28-30

The Mariners have been playing like a .500 team that's been a little unlucky (3-6) in the close games. They've scored 108 runs; they've allowed 107. I think they're a little better than that. I don't think they're good enough to play any October baseball, but they should manage to win 85 games or so.

As you've probably heard by now, Robbie Ray needs elbow surgery and will miss the rest of the season. It's the first time in his career that an arm injury has put Ray on the IL, and the Mariners made it through 2022 without a single starter missing time to injury. Their luck was bound to run out, and so it has. Chris Flexen had been filling Ray's rotation spot, and he's been really awful, but the Mariners don't really have any promising alternatives. They gave Tommy Milone a start a couple of weeks back against the Rockies. He did okay, but when Tommy Milone is the first guy who gets a chance... (Milone was instantly Designated For Assignment afterwards, cleared waivers, and was outrighted to Tacoma.)

The good news in Seattle is that Jarred Kelenic seems to finally be delivering on the promise we've been hearing about for what seems like time immemorial. It's early days, but a .325/.376/.688 slash line with 7 HRs in 22 games would seem to meet anyone's expectations, and then some.