Past Drafts vs What Could Be

Friday, July 07 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Thought I'd dig into what has happened with past drafts vs the Jays picks this year. Just to help limit expectations of the Jays getting a Mike Trout (inner circle HOF) or John Olerud (immediate help) in it.

Lets see what the best cases ever are for the Jays top few picks and how the Jays have done when they had that pick before...

That covers round 1-5, Jays pick every 30 after that (#187, #217, etc.). From pick #121 (4th round) on it is a pure crapshoot it seems - a 1 in 50 shot at best each time at getting a useful player.

What are the Jays best by round? So you get the idea, in 46 drafts the Jays have seen a few really good players drafted in the first 5 rounds, a HOF'er and a couple of near HOF'ers. But to do so you need luck and good scouting.

So how has our current GM done? Our prospect watchers will know who in each year is really promising, but I tried to list the key guys like Tiedemann. No major missed signings yet. 2017 looks like a flop, but 2018 has potential to be a good one if Barger and Kloffenstein can come through. It seems clear our current GM often sees picks as trade chips though, not hesitating to trade even guys he sees as top prospects like Martin to improve the ML team.

So for the draft keep expectations of the Jays drafting 3 or 4 HOF'ers to a minimum, for every Jeff Kent picked in the 20th round there are many, many, many guys picked who never reach. Even in round 1 we have had 1 HOF'er picked, and 3 top 3 picks that never reached (the infamous Augie Schmidt over Dwight Gooden being the most painful one). The most recent first rounder to be a lock not to ever make it is Jon Harris (2015) who pitched in an indy league last year at age 28. Max Pentecost from 2014 fully retired from pro-ball a few years ago.