Jays Recent Drafting in Detail

Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:51 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Lots of talk about the Jays development system and drafting under Atkins. How has it been? Lets see.

Vs AL East first...

2016
- Jays: 26th pick most rounds Top player: Bo Bichette 16.8 bWAR, 8 players in majors (+2 drafted DNS) 23.6 bWAR total (DNS=-0.1 so non factor)
- Rays: 14th pick most rounds Top player: Nathaniel Lowe at 9.5, 10 reached 16.4 WAR total (DNS 3 reached, 1.8 WAR)
- O's: 15th pick most rounds Top player: Austin Hays 8.4, 4 reached 8.2 bWAR total (all signed)
- Yankees: 22nd pick most rounds Top player: Taylor Widener 1.1, 8 reached -1.2 bWAR total (all signed)
- Red Sox: 12th pick most rounds Top player: Santiago Espinal 4.8, 7 reached 4.5 WAR total (1 DNS 2.5 WAR)
2017
- Jays: 24th pick most rounds Top player: Ryan Noda 1.8, 7 reached 1.9 WAR total (all signed)
- Rays: 4th pick most rounds Top player: Taylor Walls 6.2, 8 reached 11.1 WAR total (2 DNS 7.2 WAR)
- O's: 23rd pick most rounds Top player: Mike Baumann 0.6, 5 reached 1.8 WAR total (2 DNS 1.9 WAR)
- Yankees: 17th pick most rounds Top player: Garrett Whitlock 5.0, 11 reached 13.1 WAR total (4 DNS 4.4 WAR)
- Red Sox: 26th pick most rounds Top player: Tanner Houck 5.2, 2 reached 7.0 WAR total (both signed)
2018
- Jays: 12th pick most rounds Top player: Nick Allgeyer 0.0, 4 reached -0.6 WAR total (all signed)
- Rays: 16th pick most rounds Top player: Shane McClanahan 8.3, 5 reached 9.8 WAR total (all signed)
- O's: 11th pick most rounds Top player: Grayson Rodriguez -0.6, 3 reached -1.6 WAR total (2 DNS -1.0 WAR)
- Yankees: 23th pick most rounds Top player: Frank German -0.3, 1 reached -0.3 WAR total (reached)
- Red Sox: 26th pick most rounds Top player: Jarren Duran 1.4, 3 reached 2.2 WAR total (all reached)
2019
- Jays: 10th pick most rounds Top player: Alek Manoah 7.9, 2 reached 7.9 WAR total (Horwitz the other)
- Rays: 21st pick most rounds Top player: Joe La Sorsa 0.0, 2 reached -0.3 WAR total (both signed)
- O's: 1st pick most rounds Top player: Adley Rutschman 7.9, 4 reached 11.7 WAR total (all signed)
- Yankees: 28th pick most rounds Top player: Anthony Volpe 2.6, 4 reached 4.4 WAR total (all signed)
- Red Sox: 30th pick most rounds Top player: Chris Murphy 0.6, 2 reached 0.9 WAR total (both signed)
2020
- Jays: 5th pick most rounds Top player: none reached, 0 reached 0 WAR total (signed all 5)
- Rays: 24th pick most rounds Top player: Alika Williams 0.0, 1 reached 0.0 WAR total (signed)
- O's: 2nd pick most rounds Top player: Jordan Westburg 1.0, 1 reached 1.0 WAR total (signed)
- Yankees: 28th pick most rounds Top player: none, 0 reached 0 WAR total (signed all 3)
- Red Sox: 17th pick most rounds Top player: none, 0 reached 0 WAR total (signed all 5)

Won't bother with 2021/22/23 as few have reached for those years. The net (removing DNS players) for those years is Jays 32.9, Rays 28, O's 20.2, Red Sox 14.6, Yankees 11.6. Huh, didn't expect the Jays to win that even with Bo given the O's high draft positions and the Rays extra picks each year.

So how did the Jays do in the first 3 round vs the next 10 guys picked (figuring they probably looked at those 10 and debated them, but after that unlikely).

2016
- Round 1: 26th T.J. Zeuch -0.6 - best of next 10: Dane Dunning 4.3, 2 others positive, 5 negative, 2 didn't reach
- Round 2A: J.B. Woodman didn't reach - best of next 10: Pete Alonso 16.6 and Bryan Reynolds 15.3 (ouch). 2 other positives, 4 negatives (then the Jays next pick)
- Round 2B: Bo Bichette 16.8 - best of next 10: Akil Baddoo 3.2. 3 positive, 0 negative, 7 didn't reach.
- Round 3: Zach Jackson 1.6 - best of next 10: Zac Gallen 15.7 and Corbin Burnes 12.2 (both signed for about the same as Zach did).. 3+ 4- 3 failed.
So 3 flops for the Jays, 1 WOOHOO - I'll take that. But with a tiny bit of luck could've had 3 woohoo's and a flop (imagine Pete Alonso and Zac Gallen here). With some bad luck could've been 4 flops. Of course if Pete Alonso was taken then we might still be watching Vlad at 3B.
2017
- Round 1A: 22nd Logan Warmoth flop - best of next 5: Tanner Houck 5.2, 1+, 3-, 1 in minors
- Round 1B: 28th Nate Pearson -0.6 - best of next 10: Alex Lange 1.3 (Rasmussen DNS), 3+, 2-, 4 in minors, 1 DNS
- Round 2: Hagen Danner minors - best of next 10: Daulton Varsho 9.0 (0.1 is next), 4+, 2-, 4 in minors
- Round 3: Riley Adams 1.7 - best of next 10: Keegan Thompson 2.2, 2+, 1-, 7 in minors
Hard to complain: Houck would've been nice, Varsho would've been sweet to draft instead of trade for, but really there wasn't much there outside of those 2 in the 33 picks I checked.
2018
- Round 1: 12th Jordan Groshans -0.1 - best of next 10: Brady Singer 6.4, 5+, 2-, 3 in minors
- Round 2: Griffin Conine - best of next 10: Ryan Jeffers 4.4, 1+, 1-, 8 in minors
- Round 3: Adam Kloffenstein - best of next 10: Cal Raleigh 5.2, 3+, 2-, 5 in minors
Ugh, Jays didn't do well here but at least the 3 were used to help the ML team. Kloffenstein was part of the deal to get Hicks, Conine used to get Jonathan Villar (2020), Groshans to get Bass, Pop, and Edward Duran (19 in A ball hitting 321/427/452 at C/1B/DH)
2019
- Round 1: 11th Alek Manoah 7.9 - best of next 10: Corbin Carroll 5.4, 4+, 3-, 3 in minors
- Round 2: Kendall Williams - best of next 10: Brandon Williamson 1.2, 2+, 0-, 8 in minors
- Round 3: Dasan Brown - best of next 10: Michael Harris II 7.3, 2+, 1-, 7 in minors
Assuming Manoah keeps working his way back to Cy form this was a very good pick, Brown has a 633 OPS in A+ (ugh), Williams with Noda were used to get Ross Stripling (hard to complain about that).
2020
- Round 1: 5th Austin Martin - best of next 10: Reid Detmers 2.9, 3+, 1-, 6 in minors
- Round 2: CJ Van Eyk - best of next 10: Casey Schmitt -0.7, 0+, 1-, 9 in minors
- Round 3: Trent Palmer - best of next 10: n/a, 0+, 0-, 10 in minors
Yeah, far to soon for 2020, few have reached the majors and most are still with their original team (well, except for the Jays)

Later rounds would be fun to do this with but really, not much point as we'd see a LOT more 'in minors' and guys who do well in rounds 4 and beyond tend to be later developers unless you get REALLY lucky. Bottom line? Jays have done reasonably well but could've done better. Oh to have Gallen in the rotation and Alonzo in the lineup. The O's were grossly helped by having so many high picks but the Jays still outdid them in net WAR so far - go figure.

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