So Now What?

Friday, January 05 2024 @ 06:06 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

The Jays are not winning the offseason at this stage, but can add parts to win the East still. Needs are a DH and a 3B (ideally DH is LH) and maybe a 4th OF if you don't trust Schneider/Biggio/kids to cover that. With the old thread well over 200 comments, time for a new one.

Sigh. So much for my Brantley idea (he retired). He looked like a really good fit but I guess he felt it was time to be with family instead. Such is life. He has made over $112 million in his ML career so he really doesn't need the money, and his stats are nowhere near what it'd take to get into the HOF, nor close to any milestones (344 hits from 2000, 71 HR from 200). He has a ring (didn't play in the 22 WS but he got a ring anyways). So really nothing left to play for.

So now what? 119 wRC+ projected (via Steamer - easy to sort and a decent system) for both Jorge Soler (RH) and Joc Pederson (LH) - they seem the best of the cheap options. Others projected at 110+ wRC+ are Rhys Hoskins (RH), Austin Meadows (LH), Jesse Winker (LH), and Daniel Vogelbach (LH). All of those guys are projected to hit better than Bellinger (108 wRC+ projection), J.D. Martinez (106), Brandon Belt (106), Teoscar Hernández (106), Justin Turner (105), Ji Man Choi (105 - always seemed a Jay killer to me for some reason), and Matt Chapman (103).

So depending on contract demands and what the Jays want out of the guy for flexibility Pederson is probably the best of what is left - bats left so can platoon with whoever isn't catching, can go into LF/RF in an emergency (horrid stats out there, but he could go out there - you'll find most of these guys have horrid defensive stats). Most of these guys had bad 2023's but high peaks before that so it'd depend on what the teams scouts say about them - is there life in those bats or not. Lets look closer at the LH bats (which I figure the Jays want most)

Pederson: can play LF/RF technically but is ugly out there (-5 DRS in 204 innings last year). -6 DRS at 1B lifetime in 154 innings. He is a pure DH really. 111 wRC+ last year, 146 in 2022, 96 in 2021. 125 wRC+ lifetime as a vs RH pitching. Basically he has his role, facing RH pitching almost exclusively as a DH.
Austin Meadows: was once a hot kid for Tampa (2019 4.5 fWAR at age 24) but has fallen since. Just 6 games in 2023 with a 38 wRC+ (yikes) after a 100 and 112 the 2 previous years. Mostly a corner OF his whole career, +5 DRS in LF, -13 in RF (-12 his first 2 seasons, then improved a lot). So he has some value outside of his bat if needed. But is he able to handle his anxiety issues which took him out the past couple of years? Very, very big question. Maybe playing here could work - less pressure as a DH mainly with lots of other guys as lightning rods for fans to attack if mad. He'd be a small part of a big team.
Jesse Winker: Had a quad issue that cost him most of last season but was on the WC roster for Milwaukee so might be healthy. Just a 65 wRC+ last year in limited time (that injury) after a 108 and a 148 the previous 2 years. If healthy he could be a MASSIVE asset. Has played a lot of LF, but not well (-16 DRS in 2022, -23 lifetime) so should be seen as a pure DH now.
Daniel Vogelbach: most stable than the others - 109 wRC+ in '23, 126 in '22, 102 in '21. Pretty much a pure DH now, no fielding time in 2023, 1B only before that with a -15 DRS lifetime there (1060 innings or around a season worth of playing time). Basically what you see is what you get. 102-126 wRC+ in his 100+ game seasons. Might be good as a balance to the variability we've seen in the Jays regulars outside of Bo.
----others-----
Cody Bellinger: the big guy - he can hit, 134 wRC+ last year, peak of 161 in 2019. But he also can flop - 83 wRC+ in 2022, 47 in '21. If signed which do you get? Is he insisting on playing in CF or is he open to splitting time at LF/1B/DH? He wants $200+ mil over 7+ years, which entering his age 28 season makes sense, but with those 2 horrid years so recent I'd not want to risk. A complicated deal ala Green's last winter would make sense (after 2024 or 2025 both parties have an opt out where if the Jays want him badly enough he gets the crazy money he wants, if they don't he gets a decent compensation instead). But I see him holding out until deep into spring for that big deal with the Cubs giving in (they have the cash too). For fielding he has been solid in CF (+11 DRS lifetime, but -3 last year) and has limited time in LF (315 innings) with lots in RF (989 innings, most in 2019, his career year, overall a +19 DRS there). If signed he might even end up in RF with Springer going to DH/LF. That'd be interesting and make for a scary good defensive OF 4 high end defenders deep.
J.D. Martinez: many expect the Jays to chase him down, despite his RH bat and pure DH status (12 innings in the LF last year). His projections are really poor (106 wRC+) despite a good past 3 years (135-119-126 wRC+ for 23/22/21). I don't see a solid fit here, especially if he wants $20+ mil.
Justin Turner: seen as a clubhouse leader, he could either be a big help in that way or an irritant. Solid bat (114-124-126 the past 3 years) but expected to drop due to age (105 projected), can play 3B/1B if needed (289 innings at 1B +3 DRS last year, but just 57 at 3B with a -3 DRS). Might be a good fit with Vlad to split time (lets Vlad DH more if we have a competent 1B at DH). If he only batted from the left side...
Jorge Soler: another RH bat, but can sorta play LF/RF (241 innings in RF last year -5 DRS, -49 lifetime, 469 innings in LF in 2022 -1 DRS so not as bad there). 126 wRC+ in 2023, 95 in '22, 100 in '21. I'd put him far below most of the others I've listed.
Rhys Hoskins: RH bat, coming off a full season away due to injury but reported to be at 100% (was ready if needed for the playoffs). 122 wRC+ in '22, 127 in '21. Entering his age 31 season projected at 116 but if healthy I'd pencil him in for a 120+. Plays 1B, was a +3 DRS in '22, -7 lifetime. Was super ugly in LF when given a full season in '18 with -19 DRS. If he checks out as 100% he could be a very solid middle of the order bat who could give Vlad lots of time off at 1B.

I think that covers it for free agent hitters. For trade shots the market is very limited. Oakland could easily trade Ryan Noda (he won't be there anymore by the time they move to Vegas I suspect), a LH bat who plays 1B, projected at 108 wRC+ after a 123 ML debut. His DRS at 1B was 0, he also had 17 innings in LF/RF with a 0 for what that's worth. If the Jays can't get anyone else he'd be worth trading for in mid-April if in house options flop (Horwitz projected at 113 wRC+).

Given Horwitz is projected at 113, depending on if the Jays systems see him the same, I'd not touch any hitter below a 110 projection unless whatever the Jays use says they'll do better. I'd rank them Meadows (if his anxiety allows him to play here), Pederson (very good platoon guy), Winker (health issue). If Bellinger can be signed at a reasonable price then grab him (no way on earth he should be in CF with Varsho & KK here) and put him in RF moving Springer to DH/LF/RF letting all 4 OF have time off as needed and always having a killer defense out there.

3B seems to be either in house (IKF/Biggio/Espinal) or finding a way to get Chapman to give up on $150 million and move to a more reasonable price ($100-125 mil over 4 or 5 lets say). I didn't go over the 3B options as free agents are down to Chapman, Urshela, Donaldson, and pure crap it seems (Donaldson could be put into the crap pile now). Urshela is not really better than IKF so why bother imo. No matter how I juggle the stats I just don't see a solid option outside of Chapman on the market (trade or free agency). No, Ramirez is not being traded, and the Jays won't take on $333 mil to get Machado. The farm kids appear to be not seen as acceptable on defense at 3B as Orelvis (projected 87 wRC+) was mainly playing 2B by the end of 2023, Barger RF (projected 96 wRC+), Damiano Palmegiani looks interesting, but is projected at an 88 wRC+, Rafael Lantigua was playing a lot in LF instead by the end, projected 94. Others are too far down to be up for April/May/June imo. So I don't see any kids getting shots in April, they'll need to beat down the door. I could easily see Chapman resigned if his demands come down a bit as he would fit the defense first and always POV the Jays seem stuck on right now otherwise IKF will be the 3B for opening day.

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