So how good is the team now?

Thursday, February 08 2024 @ 09:16 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

Let's dig into some projection systems for this team as we near the end of winter. I figure it is about time as the team is unlikely to change much now. I figure this is the best way to cause a trade/free agent signing to happen. Putting this together now when all seems quiet.

I'll use a few systems that are easy to grab - ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts (listed as D. C.), ATC, THE BAT (all from FanGraphs) and Marcel projections from BR which don't have WAR but do have OPS, ERA, IP, PA. Also mixed in is 2023 results by WAR (both BR and FanGraphs)

Pitchers first...
WAR ERA IP

Pitcher b2023 f2023 ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel

Kevin Gausman 3.4 5.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 3.46 3.48 3.47 3.43 3.84 3.49 169.0 193.1 192 182.2 178.0 170

Chris Bassitt 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.84 4.22 4.03 4.00 4.32 3.74 171.1 194.0 197 180.0 167.1 178

José Berríos 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 4.12 4.13 4.12 4.15 4.42 4.24 170.1 179.1 177 174.0 160.1 172

Jordan Romano 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 3.37 3.68 3.53 3.39 3.75 3.39 58.2 66.0 66 60.0 60.0 61

Tim Mayza 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 3.62 3.43 3.53 3.31 3.86 3.38 54.2 62.0 62 55.1 55.1 56

Yusei Kikuchi 1.8 2.6 1.4 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 4.38 4.02 4.2 4.19 4.62 4.41 135.2 155.2 153 147.2 146.2 149

Bowden Francis 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.31 4.31 4.31 3.88 4.64 3.56 87.2 44.1 43 33.0 33.0 43

Erik Swanson 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.6 3.88 3.74 3.55 4.15 3.38 60.0 64.0 64 61.0 61.0 64

Génesis Cabrera 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.15 4.16 4.16 4.28 4.15 4.26 60.2 59.0 59 55.0 55.0 57

Hagen Danner 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 -- -- 4.08 4.02 4.05 -- -- 4.32 39.2 19.0 19 -- -- 25

Yimi García -0.1 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 4.08 3.73 3.91 3.85 3.87 4.08 57.1 63.0 63 58.0 58.0 64

Trevor Richards -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 4.21 3.85 4.03 4.26 4.14 4.70 66.1 56.0 56 51.0 51.0 69

Mitch White -0.3 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.6 4.20 4.4 4.61 4.61 4.91 80.1 41.2 41 33.1 33.1 55

Nate Pearson -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.42 4.00 4.21 4.23 3.89 4.40 57.0 46.0 46 37.2 37.2 47

Chad Green -0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.53 3.89 3.71 3.86 3.84 4.22 43.1 60.0 60 50.1 50.1 32

Wes Parsons -0.4 -0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.97 3.92 4.45 4.50 5.42 5.08 76.0 24.0 24 19.2 19.2 62

Zach Pop -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.74 4.00 4.37 4.15 3.71 4.25 51.1 38.0 38 24.0 24.0 36

Alek Manoah -1.1 -0.4 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 4.47 4.72 4.60 4.54 4.54 3.80 120.2 117.0 114 119.2 119.2 123

Totals 12.8 18.2 18.0 15.6 15.7 16.4 16.7 4.10 3.99 4.00 3.97 4.22 4.03 1,555.1 1,480.7 1,474.0 1,339.3 1,307.3 1,463.0

Now Hitters...
WAR OPS PA

Player Position b2023 f2023 ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel

Bo Bichette SS 4.9 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 4.2 .804 .815 .809 .813 .812 .830 657 671 644 639 639 570

Cavan Biggio 2B/3B 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 .700 .703 .702 .702 .693 .712 368 434 441 366 366 399

Ernie Clement IF 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 .701 .697 .699 .668 .633 .662 361 20 14 66 66 244

Santiago Espinal IF 0.5 0.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 .690 .709 .699 .697 .656 .713 357 309 315 305 305 376

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 2.0 1.0 3.2 4.2 3.7 3.5 4.2 .849 .895 .872 .857 .881 .872 659 663 665 663 663 612

Spencer Horwitz 1B/DH 0.3 0.2 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 .727 .756 .741 .745 .698 .758 507 159 77 198 198 222

Danny Jansen C 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 .800 .765 .782 .786 .761 .793 297 433 364 383 383 375

Kevin Kiermaier CF 3.9 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.1 .683 .690 .686 .694 .663 .716 359 378 427 385 385 426

Isiah Kiner-Falefa UT 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 .637 .676 .656 .677 .648 .679 480 379 476 339 339 434

Alejandro Kirk C 1.9 1.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 3.5 .748 .795 .771 .775 .751 .764 449 375 361 409 409 465

Otto Lopez IF -- -- 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.1 .642 .666 .654 .632 .655 .770 434 108 56 91 91 201

Nathan Lukes OF -0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 .703 .704 .703 .690 .638 .729 355 54 56 84 84 216

Davis Schneider 2B/LF 1.8 2.0 3.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.8 .763 .759 .761 .780 .747 .870 502 406 385 411 411 271

George Springer RF 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.1 .760 .783 .771 .774 .760 .772 567 671 623 598 598 600

Justin Turner DH 2.1 1.2 2 0.7 1.7 1.2 1.0 .794 .747 .771 .768 .744 .775 514 563 546 511 511 566

Daulton Varsho LF/CF 3.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.0 .759 .749 .754 .734 .724 .729 541 563 595 551 551 550

Totals -- 26.8 20.2 33.5 26.7 27.4 24.9 24.7 .742 .765 .758 .760 .744 .765 7,407 6,186 6,045 5,999 5,999 6,527

So it is interesting to see how things are predicted vs where they were last year. WAR last year for hitters ranged from 20.2-26.8, predictions for 2024 are 24.7-33.5. Pitchers reality was 12.8-18.2 vs projected 15.6-18.0. Lost guys were Brandon Belt (bWAR 2.0 fWAR 2.3, forecast 0.5-0.8) and Whit Merrifield (bWAR 0.7 fWAR 1.5, forecast 0.4-1.1). Pitchers are Ryu (bWAR 0.4 fWAR 0.4, projected 0.8-1.8), and a few relievers who were sub 0.5 and projected pretty much the same, none had 30+ IP here (Jay Jackson, Hicks, Cimber, Bass, Hatch, Thornton) - well, Hicks is seen as more than 'meh' - bWAR 0.8 fWAR 1.1, projected 0.2-1.8. Jackson was 0.8 bWAR but only 0.1 fWAR and seen as no better than 0.4 this year.

If these forecasts are reasonable (and I think they are) it seems clear the pitching should be as good or better, hitting pretty much equal (better vs BR, worse vs FG).

Note: Some forecasts had more guys listed but it was a crapshoot and just made things even messier for guys who probably won't have a big impact. Well, unless Orelvis or Barger can emerge and grab 3B in the spring I guess. But none of the prospects were listed as over 0.5 WAR in 2024, or with an OPS over .708 (Barger in both cases).

	WAR	ERA	IP
Pitcher	b2023	f2023	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	Marcel	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	Marcel
Kevin Gausman	3.4	5.3	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.5	4.3	3.46	3.48	3.47	3.43	3.84	3.49	169.0	193.1	192	182.2	178.0	170
Chris Bassitt	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.4	2.8	2.6	2.2	3.84	4.22	4.03	4.00	4.32	3.74	171.1	194.0	197	180.0	167.1	178
José Berríos	2.3	3.0	2.5	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.3	4.12	4.13	4.12	4.15	4.42	4.24	170.1	179.1	177	174.0	160.1	172
Jordan Romano	2.1	1.2	0.6	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.8	3.37	3.68	3.53	3.39	3.75	3.39	58.2	66.0	66	60.0	60.0	61
Tim Mayza	2.1	1.3	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.5	3.62	3.43	3.53	3.31	3.86	3.38	54.2	62.0	62	55.1	55.1	56
Yusei Kikuchi	1.8	2.6	1.4	2.2	1.8	2.0	1.8	4.38	4.02	4.2	4.19	4.62	4.41	135.2	155.2	153	147.2	146.2	149
Bowden Francis	0.9	0.2	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	4.31	4.31	4.31	3.88	4.64	3.56	87.2	44.1	43	33.0	33.0	43
Erik Swanson	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.5	3.6	3.88	3.74	3.55	4.15	3.38	60.0	64.0	64	61.0	61.0	64
Génesis Cabrera	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	4.15	4.16	4.16	4.28	4.15	4.26	60.2	59.0	59	55.0	55.0	57
Hagen Danner	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	--	--	4.08	4.02	4.05	--	--	4.32	39.2	19.0	19	--	--	25
Yimi García	-0.1	1.0	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	4.08	3.73	3.91	3.85	3.87	4.08	57.1	63.0	63	58.0	58.0	64
Trevor Richards	-0.2	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.5	4.21	3.85	4.03	4.26	4.14	4.70	66.1	56.0	56	51.0	51.0	69
Mitch White	-0.3	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	4.6	4.20	4.4	4.61	4.61	4.91	80.1	41.2	41	33.1	33.1	55
Nate Pearson	-0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	4.42	4.00	4.21	4.23	3.89	4.40	57.0	46.0	46	37.2	37.2	47
Chad Green	-0.4	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	3.53	3.89	3.71	3.86	3.84	4.22	43.1	60.0	60	50.1	50.1	32
Wes Parsons	-0.4	-0.2	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	4.97	3.92	4.45	4.50	5.42	5.08	76.0	24.0	24	19.2	19.2	62
Zach Pop	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	4.74	4.00	4.37	4.15	3.71	4.25	51.1	38.0	38	24.0	24.0	36
Alek Manoah	-1.1	-0.4	1.3	0.8	1.0	1.0	1.3	4.47	4.72	4.60	4.54	4.54	3.80	120.2	117.0	114	119.2	119.2	123
Totals	12.8	18.2	18.0	15.6	15.7	16.4	16.7	4.10	3.99	4.00	3.97	4.22	4.03	1,555.1	1,480.7	1,474.0	1,339.3	1,307.3	1,463.0

	WAR	OPS	PA
Player	Position	b2023	f2023	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	Marcel	ZiPS	Steamer	D. C.	ATC	THE BAT	Marcel
Bo Bichette	SS	4.9	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.1	4	4.2	.804	.815	.809	.813	.812	.830	657	671	644	639	639	570
Cavan Biggio	2B/3B	0.8	1.0	1.1	0.9	1.0	0.9	0.7	.700	.703	.702	.702	.693	.712	368	434	441	366	366	399
Ernie Clement	IF	1.0	0.6	1.4	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	.701	.697	.699	.668	.633	.662	361	20	14	66	66	244
Santiago Espinal	IF	0.5	0.1	1.3	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.6	.690	.709	.699	.697	.656	.713	357	309	315	305	305	376
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	2.0	1.0	3.2	4.2	3.7	3.5	4.2	.849	.895	.872	.857	.881	.872	659	663	665	663	663	612
Spencer Horwitz	1B/DH	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.4	0.3	0.6	0.2	.727	.756	.741	.745	.698	.758	507	159	77	198	198	222
Danny Jansen	C	1.6	2.0	2.3	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.7	.800	.765	.782	.786	.761	.793	297	433	364	383	383	375
Kevin Kiermaier	CF	3.9	2.2	2.0	1.2	1.7	1.2	1.1	.683	.690	.686	.694	.663	.716	359	378	427	385	385	426
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	UT	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.5	.637	.676	.656	.677	.648	.679	480	379	476	339	339	434
Alejandro Kirk	C	1.9	1.6	3.4	3.2	2.9	2.6	3.5	.748	.795	.771	.775	.751	.764	449	375	361	409	409	465
Otto Lopez	IF	--	--	0.7	0.2	0.1	-0.4	0.1	.642	.666	.654	.632	.655	.770	434	108	56	91	91	201
Nathan Lukes	OF	-0.1	0.0	1.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.1	.703	.704	.703	.690	.638	.729	355	54	56	84	84	216
Davis Schneider	2B/LF	1.8	2.0	3.1	1.9	2.1	2.3	1.8	.763	.759	.761	.780	.747	.870	502	406	385	411	411	271
George Springer	RF	2.1	2.2	2.9	3.0	2.9	2.5	2.1	.760	.783	.771	.774	.760	.772	567	671	623	598	598	600
Justin Turner	DH	2.1	1.2	2	0.7	1.7	1.2	1.0	.794	.747	.771	.768	.744	.775	514	563	546	511	511	566
Daulton Varsho	LF/CF	3.9	2.1	2.3	2.7	2.8	2.3	2.0	.759	.749	.754	.734	.724	.729	541	563	595	551	551	550
Totals	--	26.8	20.2	33.5	26.7	27.4	24.9	24.7	.742	.765	.758	.760	.744	.765	7,407	6,186	6,045	5,999	5,999	6,527

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