So how good is the team now?

Thursday, February 08 2024 @ 09:16 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

Let's dig into some projection systems for this team as we near the end of winter. I figure it is about time as the team is unlikely to change much now. I figure this is the best way to cause a trade/free agent signing to happen. Putting this together now when all seems quiet.

I'll use a few systems that are easy to grab - ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts (listed as D. C.), ATC, THE BAT (all from FanGraphs) and Marcel projections from BR which don't have WAR but do have OPS, ERA, IP, PA. Also mixed in is 2023 results by WAR (both BR and FanGraphs)

Pitchers first...
 WARERAIP
Pitcherb2023f2023ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT MarcelZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel
Kevin Gausman3.45.33.84.34.34.54.33.463.483.473.433.843.49169.0193.1192182.2178.0170
Chris Bassitt2.52.62.82.42.82.62.23.844.224.034.004.323.74171.1194.0197180.0167.1178
José Berríos2.33.02.52.32.42.42.34.124.134.124.154.424.24170.1179.1177174.0160.1172
Jordan Romano2.11.20.60.61.00.70.83.373.683.533.393.753.3958.266.06660.060.061
Tim Mayza2.11.30.30.50.40.60.53.623.433.533.313.863.3854.262.06255.155.156
Yusei Kikuchi1.82.61.42.21.82.01.84.384.024.24.194.624.41135.2155.2153147.2146.2149
Bowden Francis0.90.20.90.10.10.10.24.314.314.313.884.643.5687.244.14333.033.043
Erik Swanson0.70.90.60.30.60.50.53.63.883.743.554.153.3860.064.06461.061.064
Génesis Cabrera0.20.30.20.10.10.10.34.154.164.164.284.154.2660.259.05955.055.057
Hagen Danner0.00.00.30.10.0----4.084.024.05----4.3239.219.019----25
Yimi García-0.11.00.30.50.50.50.64.083.733.913.853.874.0857.163.06358.058.064
Trevor Richards-0.20.40.70.30.10.30.54.213.854.034.264.144.7066.156.05651.051.069
Mitch White-0.30.00.90.20.10.20.24.64.204.44.614.614.9180.141.24133.133.155
Nate Pearson-0.30.00.30.30.10.20.34.424.004.214.233.894.4057.046.04637.237.247
Chad Green-0.40.30.60.30.40.50.63.533.893.713.863.844.2243.160.06050.150.132
Wes Parsons-0.4-0.20.60.20.00.10.04.973.924.454.505.425.0876.024.02419.219.262
Zach Pop-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.00.10.34.744.004.374.153.714.2551.138.03824.024.036
Alek Manoah-1.1-0.41.30.81.01.01.34.474.724.604.544.543.80120.2117.0114119.2119.2123
Totals12.818.218.015.615.716.416.74.103.994.003.974.224.031,555.11,480.71,474.01,339.31,307.31,463.0

Now Hitters...
 WAROPSPA
PlayerPositionb2023f2023ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT MarcelZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel
Bo BichetteSS4.93.84.34.24.144.2.804.815.809.813.812.830657671644639639570
Cavan Biggio2B/3B0.81.01.10.91.00.90.7.700.703.702.702.693.712368434441366366399
Ernie ClementIF1.00.61.40.10.00.10.1.701.697.699.668.633.66236120146666244
Santiago EspinalIF0.50.11.31.01.00.90.6.690.709.699.697.656.713357309315305305376
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B2.01.03.24.23.73.54.2.849.895.872.857.881.872659663665663663612
Spencer Horwitz1B/DH0.30.21.70.40.30.60.2.727.756.741.745.698.75850715977198198222
Danny JansenC1.62.02.32.02.22.32.7.800.765.782.786.761.793297433364383383375
Kevin KiermaierCF3.92.22.01.21.71.21.1.683.690.686.694.663.716359378427385385426
Isiah Kiner-FalefaUT0.10.20.70.90.80.80.5.637.676.656.677.648.679480379476339339434
Alejandro KirkC1.91.63.43.22.92.63.5.748.795.771.775.751.764449375361409409465
Otto LopezIF----0.70.20.1-0.40.1.642.666.654.632.655.770434108569191201
Nathan LukesOF-0.10.01.10.10.10.1-0.1.703.704.703.690.638.72935554568484216
Davis Schneider2B/LF1.82.03.11.92.12.31.8.763.759.761.780.747.870502406385411411271
George SpringerRF2.12.22.93.02.92.52.1.760.783.771.774.760.772567671623598598600
Justin TurnerDH2.11.220.71.71.21.0.794.747.771.768.744.775514563546511511566
Daulton VarshoLF/CF3.92.12.32.72.82.32.0.759.749.754.734.724.729541563595551551550
Totals--26.820.233.526.727.424.924.7.742.765.758.760.744.7657,4076,1866,0455,9995,9996,527

So it is interesting to see how things are predicted vs where they were last year. WAR last year for hitters ranged from 20.2-26.8, predictions for 2024 are 24.7-33.5. Pitchers reality was 12.8-18.2 vs projected 15.6-18.0. Lost guys were Brandon Belt (bWAR 2.0 fWAR 2.3, forecast 0.5-0.8) and Whit Merrifield (bWAR 0.7 fWAR 1.5, forecast 0.4-1.1). Pitchers are Ryu (bWAR 0.4 fWAR 0.4, projected 0.8-1.8), and a few relievers who were sub 0.5 and projected pretty much the same, none had 30+ IP here (Jay Jackson, Hicks, Cimber, Bass, Hatch, Thornton) - well, Hicks is seen as more than 'meh' - bWAR 0.8 fWAR 1.1, projected 0.2-1.8. Jackson was 0.8 bWAR but only 0.1 fWAR and seen as no better than 0.4 this year.

If these forecasts are reasonable (and I think they are) it seems clear the pitching should be as good or better, hitting pretty much equal (better vs BR, worse vs FG).

Note: Some forecasts had more guys listed but it was a crapshoot and just made things even messier for guys who probably won't have a big impact. Well, unless Orelvis or Barger can emerge and grab 3B in the spring I guess. But none of the prospects were listed as over 0.5 WAR in 2024, or with an OPS over .708 (Barger in both cases).

260 comments



https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20240131112747119