So how good is the team now?

Thursday, February 08 2024 @ 09:16 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

Let's dig into some projection systems for this team as we near the end of winter. I figure it is about time as the team is unlikely to change much now. I figure this is the best way to cause a trade/free agent signing to happen. Putting this together now when all seems quiet.

I'll use a few systems that are easy to grab - ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts (listed as D. C.), ATC, THE BAT (all from FanGraphs) and Marcel projections from BR which don't have WAR but do have OPS, ERA, IP, PA. Also mixed in is 2023 results by WAR (both BR and FanGraphs)

Pitchers first...
Pitcherb2023f2023ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT MarcelZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel
Kevin Gausman3.
Chris Bassitt2.
José Berríos2.
Jordan Romano2.
Tim Mayza2.
Yusei Kikuchi1.
Bowden Francis0.
Erik Swanson0.
Génesis Cabrera0.
Hagen Danner0.
Yimi García-
Trevor Richards-
Mitch White-
Nate Pearson-
Chad Green-
Wes Parsons-0.4-
Zach Pop-0.4-0.3-
Alek Manoah-1.1-

Now Hitters...
PlayerPositionb2023f2023ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT ZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT MarcelZiPS Steamer D. C. ATC THE BAT Marcel
Bo BichetteSS4.
Cavan Biggio2B/3B0.
Ernie ClementIF1.
Santiago EspinalIF0.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B2.
Spencer Horwitz1B/DH0.
Danny JansenC1.
Kevin KiermaierCF3.
Isiah Kiner-FalefaUT0.
Alejandro KirkC1.
Otto LopezIF----
Nathan LukesOF-
Davis Schneider2B/LF1.
George SpringerRF2.
Justin TurnerDH2.
Daulton VarshoLF/CF3.

So it is interesting to see how things are predicted vs where they were last year. WAR last year for hitters ranged from 20.2-26.8, predictions for 2024 are 24.7-33.5. Pitchers reality was 12.8-18.2 vs projected 15.6-18.0. Lost guys were Brandon Belt (bWAR 2.0 fWAR 2.3, forecast 0.5-0.8) and Whit Merrifield (bWAR 0.7 fWAR 1.5, forecast 0.4-1.1). Pitchers are Ryu (bWAR 0.4 fWAR 0.4, projected 0.8-1.8), and a few relievers who were sub 0.5 and projected pretty much the same, none had 30+ IP here (Jay Jackson, Hicks, Cimber, Bass, Hatch, Thornton) - well, Hicks is seen as more than 'meh' - bWAR 0.8 fWAR 1.1, projected 0.2-1.8. Jackson was 0.8 bWAR but only 0.1 fWAR and seen as no better than 0.4 this year.

If these forecasts are reasonable (and I think they are) it seems clear the pitching should be as good or better, hitting pretty much equal (better vs BR, worse vs FG).

Note: Some forecasts had more guys listed but it was a crapshoot and just made things even messier for guys who probably won't have a big impact. Well, unless Orelvis or Barger can emerge and grab 3B in the spring I guess. But none of the prospects were listed as over 0.5 WAR in 2024, or with an OPS over .708 (Barger in both cases).