Colorado at Toronto, April 12-14
Friday, April 12 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
Come down from the heights, fellas, and play some ball at sea level.
The Rockies have never been able to quite figure out how to deal with... well, their basic situation. Denver is 1600 metres above sea level, and that altitude, as we all know, has a significant impact on the game. Dealing with that impact has baffled the Rockies' management since Day One. No team in the history of baseball has a bigger difference between how they perform at home and how they perform on the road. This was the case when I did a massive study of Home Field Advantage way back in 2007, and it remains true today. No other venue was in the same ballpark (ducks!)
The home-road split in baseball has, for more than a century, been a predictable thing. The home teams will have a winning percentage of about .540; the road teams, as you would expect, have a winning percentage of about .460. The difference, naturally, is .080 - this is what's normal.
This is not what happens in Colorado, where the difference between home performance and road performance is enormous. Huge. Roughly double the usual home-road gap. There's never been anything remotely like it.
So it's time for the first Data Table of 2024. Just to see if I've still got It.
This presents the Home-Road records of all 30 teams since the Rockies moved into Coors Field in 1995, and they're ranked by the size of the gap between home performance and road performance.
HOME RECORDS ROAD RECORDS
Team G W L PCT G W L PCT DIFF
COL 2,290 1,246 1,044 .544 2,289 894 1,395 .391 .154
PIT 2,285 1,138 1,147 .498 2,287 910 1,377 .398 .100
KCR 2,283 1,058 1,225 .463 2,342 858 1,484 .366 .097
TEX 2,291 1,250 1,041 .546 2,288 1,033 1,255 .451 .094
MIA 2,274 1,160 1,114 .510 2,299 966 1,333 .420 .090
TBR 2,055 1,097 958 .534 2,053 914 1,139 .445 .089
NYY 2,285 1,431 854 .626 2,288 1,240 1,048 .542 .084
SFG 2,295 1,286 1,009 .560 2,281 1,086 1,195 .476 .084
STL 2,286 1,334 952 .584 2,287 1,143 1,144 .500 .084
OAK 2,290 1,260 1,030 .550 2,285 1,072 1,214 .469 .081
WSN 2,289 1,173 1,116 .512 2,287 999 1,288 .437 .076
HOU 2,287 1,276 1,011 .558 2,290 1,106 1,184 .483 .075
SDP 2,291 1,188 1,103 .519 2,288 1,016 1,272 .444 .074
LAA 2,293 1,254 1,039 .547 2,338 1,105 1,180 .473 .074
TOR 2,282 1,222 1,060 .535 2,295 1,059 1,236 .461 .074
CWS 2,288 1,211 1,077 .529 2,288 1,047 1,241 .458 .072
CHC 2,294 1,214 1,080 .529 2,283 1,046 1,237 .458 .071
DET 2,285 1,121 1,164 .491 2,288 960 1,327 .420 .071
PHI 2,293 1,223 1,070 .533 2,284 1,057 1,227 .463 .071
LAD 2,290 1,359 931 .593 2,288 1,198 1,090 .524 .070
MIL 2,289 1,199 1,090 .524 2,287 1,039 1,248 .454 .070
BAL 2,286 1,130 1,156 .494 2,341 998 1,292 .426 .068
ARI 2,055 1,068 987 .520 2,055 930 1,125 .453 .067
NYM 2,287 1,226 1,061 .536 2,290 1,074 1,216 .469 .067
MIN 2,292 1,196 1,096 .522 2,285 1,041 1,244 .456 .066
ATL 2,287 1,355 932 .592 2,287 1,204 1,083 .526 .066
BOS 2,319 1,312 1,007 .566 2,339 1,186 1,071 .507 .059
SEA 2,288 1,216 1,072 .531 2,289 1,083 1,206 .473 .058
CLE 2,286 1,277 1,009 .559 2,288 1,148 1,140 .502 .057
CIN 2,288 1,157 1,131 .506 2,294 1,045 1,249 .456 .050
And no one really knows why. We do know Coors Field has an enormous impact on offense, and we're pretty sure that ball parks that have any kind of outsized effect on the game can make it tricky to evaluate one's own players. What we don't really know is if they're playing better at home than you would expect, or worse on the road. I suspect it's the latter, but how would we know?
I notice that none of this seems to bother the Denver Nuggets much at all, and likely works to their advantage. Opposing players come into Denver and are gassed by the fourth quarter. Meanwhile the Nuggets seem to be able to lean more heavily on their key players, at altitude but also at sea level, especially when the playoffs come around and rotations get shorter.
What does this have to do with the Blue Jays, I imagine you muttering. Might we see some of this playing out in the rather small sample of meetings between the Rockies and the Blue Jays?
We just might. The Jays have made five trips to Coors Field over the years, and it hasn't gone well for them. The Rockies have won 11 of the 15 games played in Denver, with three game sweeps of the Jays in 2006, 2010, and 2019.
Ah, but when we get them north of the border... the Rockies have come to Toronto for a trio of three game sets, in 2002, 2007, 2013. The next game they win in Toronto will be the first one.
So let's see... a winning percentage of .733 at home and .000 on the road? That's a pretty hefty gap, even for the Rockies. But maybe Bowden Francis is the opponent they've been waiting for. If he gets the call - reports are that Yariel Rodriguez is coming to the majors on Saturday. Meanwhile Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano both pitched for Buffalo on Thursday and Danny Jansen caught a few innings. Reinforcements!
Matchups
Fri 12 April - Feltner (0-1, 3.27) vs Gausman (0-1, 9.53)
Sat 13 April - Hudson (0-2, 2.38) vs Francis (0-2, 12.96)
Sun 14 April - Freeland (0-2, 16.03) vs Berrios (2-0, 1.45)
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