I voted shortstop, but that's really a shorthand for middle infielder.  Aaron Hll can, in my opinion, be an adequate defensive shortstop, or a good defensive second baseman, and he hits more than enough for either position. 

Good point, Mike. I've updated the options.

  Starting pitching is going to be expensive. I expect someone will offer Ted Lilly some insane four-year contract in the hopes that he'll finally become consistent, which leaves the Jays trying to fill holes with a bunch of third-tier starters like Padilla. And while I think the Jays can come up with a decent, if not better, bullpen out of the guys currently here, and I'm even prepared to roll the dice on Hill-Adams as the middle infield if it comes to that, I don't think you can live with a rotation of Halladay-Burnett-Chacin-SomeGuy1-SomeGuy2. They need at least one good, solid starter, if not two, and Tony Armas isn't going to cut it.

  Although catching could potentially become a problem if Gregg Zaun decides he wants to play elsewhere.

a bunch of third-tier starters like Padilla.

Are you kidding? Vicente Padilla is 14-9/4.27 (pitching in Arlington, no less) and he's "third-tier"? He's not Halladay, but he'll get more than Lilly on the open market. And he should.

Free Agents:

Shortstop:

• Juan Castro
• Royce Clayton
• Alex Cora
• Craig Counsell
• Ramon Martinez
• Alex Gonzalez
• Jose Hernandez
• Julio Lugo
• Tomas Perez
• Desi Relaford
• Jose Vizcaino

Second Base:

• Manny Alexander
• Ronnie Belliard
• Craig Biggio
• Miguel Cairo
• Mark DeRosa
• Ray Durham
• Damion Easley
• Chris Gomez
• Jerry Hairston Jr.
• Damian Jackson
• Adam Kennedy
• Mark Loretta
• Tony Womack
• Chris Woodward

Left Handed Starting Pitching:

• Mark Buehrle
• Bruce Chen (Boras)
• Shawn Estes
• Tom Glavine
• Jamie Moyer
• Mark Mulder
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Redman
• David Wells
• Randy Wolf
• Barry Zito (Boras)

Right Handed Starting Pitching:

• Tony Armas Jr.
• Pedro Astacio
• Miguel Batista
• Roger Clemens
• Adam Eaton
• Scott Erickson
• Rick Helling
• El Duque
• Jason Johnson
• Byung-Hyun Kim
• Cory Lidle
• Jose Lima
• Greg Maddux
• Jason Marquis
• Joe Mays
• Gil Meche
• Brian Moehler
• Mike Mussina
• Tomo Ohka
• Ramon Ortiz
• Vincente Padilla
• Chan Ho Park
• Sidney Ponson
• Brad Radke
• Jason Schmidt
• Aaron Sele
• John Smoltz
• Jeff Suppan
• John Thomson
• Steve Trachsel
• Tim Wakefield
• Jeff Weaver
• Kip Wells
• Woody Williams
• Paul Wilson
• Kerry Wood
• Jamey Wright
• Jaret Wright

 Free Agent list courtesy of www.mlb4u.com

Also of note: there are team options on Mussina, Smoltz, Wakefield, Kim, Jaret Wright, and Wilson.

As I said in the TDIB thread, this stat shows that the Jays would have contended if not for 1 gaping hole in the rotation (and that becomes 2 with Lilly leaving):

Including Towers, the eight pitchers -- other than Halladay, Lilly, Burnett and Chacin -- that had stints as starters this year have gone 10-31 with a 6.33 ERA. That kind of production won't win any division.

Therefore: Current Team + Two 2nd tier starting pitchers + patch up whatever you can in other areas = playoff contender

I looked through the list,and just be quick judgements here is who I tacked as roughly the kind of guys I'd eye to sign, 2nd tier type guys: Lilly, Mulder, Pettitte, Glavine, Moyer, Batista, Eaton, maddux, Meche, Padilla, Radke, Suppan.

It is right, third tier guys will not cut out, and with perhaps $22 million to spend, I do not see why two 2nd tier guys can't be had. Here's my rough and ready list of 3rd tier guys, though the last few I consider "fringe," possibly better: Wolf, Armas, Park, Lidle, Ortiz, Ohka, Trachsel, Marquis, El Duque, Sele.

SS sign Alex Gonzalez, C is Zaun/Phillips, and I believe Zaun likes this team and we can afford him, and DH and bullpen are filled in house.

I think Adams can handle second base.

If JP is strapped for cash, Hill SS/ Adams 2b would be A OK with me.

I looked through the list,and just be quick judgements here is who I tacked as roughly the kind of guys I'd eye to sign, 2nd tier type guys: Lilly, Mulder, Pettitte, Glavine, Moyer, Batista, Eaton, maddux, Meche, Padilla, Radke, Suppan.

Byung-Hung Kim is also an intriguing possibility.  He looked to be getting back on track this year with 122 K in 146 IP.   His actual ERA of  5.30 is rather misleading and not reflective of how well he has actually pitched. (xERA 4.00).  For his career he has 692 K in 714 IP and he is still only 27.  And best of all he would be cheap.

Buerhle has a team option as well, and if on the off chance it is declined, he is going to St.Louis - he has made absolutely no secrets about it.

Moyer was also re-upped after being dealt to philly.

Kim is a guy I'd love to see here.  Given how he left Boston I'd think he'd love to go back to the AL East to prove himself.  4th/5th starter at $2 million I'd suspect, can certainly pitch out of the pen if needed too (very wild as a reliever with the Rockies in '05 with 22 walks in 22 IP but was a high level closer for a couple years in Arizona and Boston).

Starters are out there in the mediocre range if JP goes for it ($2-$7 million a year, 1-3 years depending on recent past for each pitcher). 

Catcher could become a nightmare issue if Zaun and Molina both go away, but I agree with most that Zaun will probably stay.

I see middle infield being the headache with JP knowing he has a backup in Adams and emergency in McDonald.  How much to spend, how much to risk?  Hard to say, makes it hard to deal with.

  Then again, Kim's also 3-7 with a 6.78 ERA and 1.79 WHIP on the road this year.

Tim Wakefield is an old favorite of mine (love knuckballers).  His is just 40, or about middle age for a knuckleballer :)  4.15 ERA this year, can eat the innings if needed, can relieve as well. 

For reference with recent knucklers... after age 40...
Phil Niekro - played 8 more years, ERA+ of 100+ in 4 of his next 5 seasons, 98 in the middle plus a 98 in year 6, 96 in year 7, 200+ IP in all but 1981 over the next 7 years, career suddenly ended when Jimy Williams got ahold of him.

Joe Niekro - played 3 more years, ERA+ of 84/86/41 after a 91 in his age 40 season, threw 2 shutout innings for a win for Minnesota in the '87 WS at age 42.

Charlie Hough - played 6 more years, ERA+ of 91/96/99/98/98/85 with 175+ IP in all but his final season, twice over 200.

Tom Candiotti - Just made it to 41 but had an ERA+ of 66 after a 94 over 201 IP the season before (low usage so I suspect he got the same treatment as Jimy gave Phil, lots of rest which kills knucklers).

Wilbur Wood didn't make it to 37, let alone 40 after starting up to 49 games a year in the 70's for the White Sox (and you thought Dusty Baker was cruel to pitchers).  In 1971 he started 42 games and had an ERA of 1.91(!)  His career ended in '78 so how recent he is depends on one's point of view.

There haven't been a lot of knucklers over time but not too bad for success.  2 very soild (90+ ERA+ plus tons of IP), 1 poor but sucks innings (mid 80's ERA), 1 who died and another who didn't make it.  Tim Wakefield has had an ERA+ of 100 or better in all but two seasons in the majors, the last poor season was in 2000.    Consistant, strong, would hurt Boston to lose him.  Sounds ideal to me.  I'd look at as much as a 3 year deal depending on the money.  He just is getting $4 million this year.  I'd risk up to $5 million for a 2 year deal easily.  I mean, what else do you want?  Solid, eats innings, doesn't complain if put in the pen for a stretch.  Yeah, he'll drive catchers nuts but that is what a backup catcher is for.

As VBF noted above, the Red Sox have an option on Wakefield for 2007. It's a unique contract - every time they exercise a 1-year $4M contract on him, a new 1-year $4M option is tacked on for the subsequent season.

Wow, now that is a weird contract for Wakefield to have signed.  Basically, he gives up all leverage he could ever have again in exchange for a below-market contract that Boston has full control over.  If I was his agent I'd tell him he was nuts to have signed it. 

Thowing a lot of money at Ted Lilly or another starter can probably fix the starting pitcher issue however I don't think any of the free agent shortstops are going to be worthwhile unless the highly unlikely happens and Lugo finds himself in a situation like Molina did this year.  I'd really like to see Hill stay at 2nd base where the jays will get maximum value from him.

Should Zaun depart which is also highly unlikely Molina can be overpaid to be brought back, less then idea but in case of emergency : exercise option or overpay for 1 year..

What a great idea for a poll question.

This is likely a make it or break it off season for Ricciardi and the Jays.

So what we know for sure is that the team has significant holes to fill. I can't see them excercising Benji's option. That frees up 7 million already more or less  budgeted. Lilly took home 4 this year. What does he need, 3 years of 29 million.

Nobody ever mentions Reed Johnson. But if I'm not mistaken he needs to be resigned too. So what does he command either in negotiation or arbitration. My guess something approaching four million. Cat, something well over 3 million. Is Lind for real, can this team plug him in at left field / DH. Then theres the bullpen and Speier; yes / no?

Lugo, Lilly or Padilla or Meche. Riccirdi is going to have one hell of lot of possibilites to analyse.

And why did i mention Reed, well just maybe he can bring back a young catcher or decent shortstop in a trade. He ought to be pretty attractive to teams now and on balance fairly cheap still. But cheap enough for the Jays on a budgetary knife edge and so many needs?

 

I think Reed needs some more service time to be a free agent.

Defensively, the Jays put themselves in a sticky situation if Reed leaves and Vernon does too. Not only is there increased pressure to re-ink Catalanotto, but even then, you aren't doing yourselves any favours by testing everyone's patience with a defensive outfield of Rios, Lind, and Catalanotto. Yuck!

I think Reed carries much more value to us right now than any player could get us in return. Zaun will be back along with his OBP over .360 and that's all you need.

I entertain the idea of bringing in a guy like Kim, but not as a regular member of the rotation. I do like Downs, but if you could acquire a long man who could give you a bit better of a spot start than Downs would, I think that's an area that should be investigated.

 

Yes Reed should have three more seasons before fee agency. However, his contract is up and he is due a very healthy raise.

However, my comment was so much about dumping Reed as it is about having to look at every option this off season, squeezing all available resources. Johnson's 06 campaign makes him a resource.

Of course is Wells is traded then this team not going to explore moving Johnson. I would never suggest such a thing. But if the Jays do resign him, then the money is going to have to come from somewhere, plus they will still have holes to fill. Reed maybe a chip to get all of that done.